Will the old lady feel Freiburg’s home strength?

In the media landscape, it is often seen as a positive sign when a successful coach announces his contract extension before an important match. This is exactly what Christian Streich did during the week. As always, the parties have agreed not to disclose the duration of the contract, but the likeable cult coach and his entire staff have agreed to remain at the helm of Sport-Club in Breisgau for at least the coming season.

Naturally, Christian Streich is hoping that this will have a positive effect with a view to the second leg of the UEFA Europa League round of 16 on Thursday evening. It is clear that the Bundesliga club still has a realistic chance of reaching the quarter-finals after the narrow 1-0 defeat in the first leg in Turin. At the same time, however, it is understandable that prior to the match between Freiburg and Juventus, betting on the Italians to advance is seen as much more likely.

Despite this, the first leg a week ago already showed that the South Baden team does not have to hide from the old lady. Quite the opposite. Especially in front of a home crowd, where the SCF has not lost for many months in the competition, everything seems possible.

Only an offensive spectacle is not necessarily expected, as the guests do not have to play forward, but can defend well. Similar to the first match last Thursday, the prediction for this match between Freiburg and Juventus is that there will be few goals in normal playing time.

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

Up to this point, SC Freiburg’s season reads like one success story. The Breisgau side are still in all three competitions, will face FC Bayern in the DFB Pokal quarter-finals at the beginning of April, are currently fifth in the Bundesliga and can still dream of the top flight, and on Thursday evening they have the highlight home match in the UEFA Europa League round of 16 against multiple European Cup winners Juventus ahead of them.

However, anyone who thinks that the fans and players will only enjoy the experience of playing against the star ensemble from Turin is mistaken. The Sport-Club is hot, wants to reward itself for a courageous performance this time, unlike a week ago, and has by no means written off the quarter-finals in the second most important European club competition yet.

Freiburg believe in surprise

The biggest glimmer of hope is undoubtedly the home advantage that coach Christian Streich’s team can rely on. With eight wins, three draws and only one defeat from twelve home games, the Breisgau side is currently the fourth-best home team in the German top flight. The Black Forest side have not lost in their own stadium for 15 compulsory games. The last and only defeat in the competition dates back to 12 August 2022.

However, since the respective opponents have rarely been of Juventus’ calibre and the starting position on Thursday evening also ensures that Streich’s team will have to approach the encounter differently than a normal league or knockout match, we lack the necessary conviction to play the higher odds on a home win between Freiburg and Juventus.

A more interesting bet, however, is that once again not many goals will be scored in the regular season. In six of the seven EL matches in the current season, under 3.5 would have paid off, and in four of the five most recent international matches, even under 2.5 would have paid off. However, a potential bet on more goals in the second half is at least as exciting, as the home side will have to take more risks as the game progresses and the game is likely to become more open, sometimes even wild.

Last games of Freiburg:

Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – SC Freiburg 0 – 2 Juventus FC

12/03/2023 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 Hoffenheim

Europa League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – Juventus FC 1 – 0 SC Freiburg

04/03/2023 – Gladbach 0 – 0 SC Freiburg

26/02/2023 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen

Juventus – Statistics & current form

Juventus Football Club have not covered themselves with much glory so far in the 2022/23 European Cup season. In the UEFA Champions League, Allegri’s team was eliminated in a disappointing third place behind Benfica Lisbon and Paris St. Germain, and the old lady also had to struggle more than expected in the Europa League intermediate round against the French mid-table club from Nantes after a 1-1 draw in front of their home crowd.

However, a 3-0 win away from home was enough to book their ticket to the last 16. In the fourth international match of the current season, it was the first and only success so far, which was also aided by an early sending-off for the French. Nevertheless, the away performances in the clash between Freiburg and Juventus on Thursday evening did not provide any convincing arguments to recommend the odds on an away win on the three-way market.

Juventus waiting for the moment

Despite this, the Bianconeri are naturally favoured in that a top Italian club knows how to hold on to leads like no other. Coach Allegri will give his charges a more defensive plan and rely on the fact that after the change of ends there will be more and more spaces to counterattack. In terms of quality, Angel di Maria always have the potential to score goals or create top-class goal-scoring opportunities.

This rough assessment provides enough indications for a bet on more goals in the second half or even a three-way bet in favour of the white and black team, which refers exclusively to the second 45 minutes. Odds of 2.10 and 2.70 respectively promise an appealing value.

Against this backdrop, it was perhaps even helpful that the old lady, who after the deduction of 15 points now only occupy seventh place in Serie A, but who under normal circumstances would be well on the way to the runner-up spot, was again shown deficits defensively in the dress rehearsal at the weekend. They conceded two goals in a 4-2 win at home against bottom-placed Sampdoria. Against Sport-Club, the defence will be more focused again – we are sure of that.

Last games of Juventus:

Europa League Final Stage
17/03/2023 – SC Freiburg 0 – 2 Juventus FC

Series A
13/03/2023 – Juventus FC 4 – 2 Sampdoria Genoa

Europa League Final Stage
10/03/2023 – Juventus FC 1 – 0 SC Freiburg

Series A
06/03/2023 – AS Roma 1 – 0 Juventus FC

01/03/2023 – Juventus FC 4 – 2 FC Torino

Freiburg – Juventus Direct comparison / H2H balance

The first leg a week ago was the only meeting between these two teams at competitive level so far. Angel di Maria gave the Bianconeri a 1-0 lead. It stayed that way until the end, as a goal by Lucas Höler was disallowed due to a handball in the run-up. So with the narrowest of leads, Juventus now travel to the Europa-Park-Stadion!

Freiburg – Juventus Tip

Just a few years ago, it would have been almost unthinkable for SC Freiburg to play an important must-win match against the world club Juventus. On Thursday evening, however, this is exactly what happens – and for the second time in eight days. After the 0:1 away defeat in Turin, everything is definitely still possible for the Sport-Club, especially when you consider that coach Christian Streich’s team has not lost any of the last 15 cross-competition matches in their own stadium.

The fact that the betting odds between Freiburg and Juventus still tend to favour the Old Lady is due to the fact that the team in white and black has more international experience and, given the starting position, naturally holds all the trump cards in its own hand. The Breisgauers will inevitably have to take a risk at some point, while a 0-0 draw would be enough for Allegri’s side to reach the quarter-finals.

To follow this constellation, which is complicated from the host’s point of view, we play the tip before the second leg Freiburg vs Juventus that more goals will be scored in the second half, no matter for whom. A solid 2.10 is offered for this at the top, which we play with five units.

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