Can Wolves, who are strong away from home, annoy BVB?

With 36 out of a possible 45 points, Borussia Dortmund remains in first place in the Bundesliga’s annual table, picking up a total of eight points more than FC Bayern.

However, because only three of the last seven league games were won after a series of eight consecutive victories (three draws, one defeat), BVB lost its lead in the standings once again last weekend. If Dortmund does not win at home against Wolfsburg, it could be the preliminary decision for the championship.

However, the Black and Yellows are extremely strong at home going into this match. For the first time in the club’s history, the Westphalians have recorded nine home wins in a row within one season. No other team has trailed in its own stadium for as few minutes as BVB (only 58) this season. The forecast for a home win for Borussia against Wolfsburg is correspondingly consistent.

It should be noted, however, that VfL Wolfsburg will not be a walk-in at Signal Iduna Park. The Wolves have lost only one of their last nine league games (four wins, four draws), defeated BVB 2-0 in the first leg and are in third place in the Bundesliga away table.

Also in view of the fact that the Westphalians won 13 of the last 15 Bundesliga duels with the Lower Saxons (one draw, one defeat), our betting recommendation nevertheless clearly leans towards the home-strong Borussians, who would remain in the title race with a home draw.

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

Two times Borussia Dortmund went into a matchday at the top of the 2022/23 season. On two occasions, however, the Black and Yellows failed to win a match as league leaders, whereupon the place on the sunny side was immediately passé again in both cases.

Now, too, the eight-time German champions will only go into the next league match as the hunters. Regardless of whether FC Bayern came out on top in Bremen on Saturday night or not, once again only victory counts for the Westphalians, who are still not finished with the championship.

Only three wins left in the last seven league games

The fact that Borussia have been able to get into the title race at all, meanwhile, is down to an extremely strong 2023 calendar year.BVB have picked up 36 of a possible 45 points since the winter break, making Edin Terzic’s squad the undisputed number one in the 2023 standings.

However, after eight consecutive wins to start the year, the Black and Yellows have only managed to win three of their last seven league games (three draws, one defeat). It’s not so much the 4-2 defeat at Bayern, but rather the two-goal lead against Stuttgart (3:3) that was squandered in a game of overtime, as well as the missed penalty in Bochum (1:1), that are certainly still hanging over Dortmund.

Won 13 of last 15 Bundesliga games against Wolfsburg

Now, then, it’s also a matter of showing mentality and morale against an opponent against whom 13 of the last 15 Bundesliga duels have been won (one draw, one defeat). Very clearly, the odds on Dortmund vs Wolfsburg swing in the direction of Borussia, which has won all of its last nine Bundesliga home games in a row.

In addition, BVB is always good for goals. The last time the Black and Yellows failed to score a goal of their own was in the 2-0 defeat in the first leg against Wolfsburg. Since then, the Westphalians have scored 44 goals in their last 16 Bundesliga games.

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Bundesliga

• 29/04/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
• 22/04/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 4 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
• 15/04/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 3 Borussia Dortmund
• 08/04/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 Union Berlin

DFB Cup

• 06/04/2023 – RB Leipzig 2 – 0 Borussia Dortmund

Wolfsburg – statistics & current form

After a disappointing twelfth place in the past season, VfL Wolfsburg definitely started the 2022/23 season with the ambition to qualify for an international competition again.

In this regard, the Wolves, who at this point in the season already have twelve points more (46) than they had after 30 matchdays of the 2021/22 season (34) on their account, are still in the draw. Seventh place in the table would be enough to qualify for the Conference League Quali, provided this year’s DFB Cup winners finish in the league’s top six.

Wolfsburg still in contention for Europa League

Even sixth place is only two points away, however, so the Lower Saxons can still hope for the Europa League. Responsible for this is a recent very strong series, in the context of which with Mainz 05 even the team of the hour could be disenchanted in all form (3:0).

Overall, the Wolves have lost only one of their last nine league games (four wins, four draws), which is also due to the defensive compactness. With 37 goals conceded, VfL has the third-best defense in the Bundesliga. Moreover, no other team can boast more white vests than Wolfsburg (twelve).

The best away defense in the Bundesliga

Adding to that is a strong away record. Only Bayern (eight) have recorded more away wins in the 2022/23 season than the Wolves (seven), who are third in the away table with 24 points from 15 Bundesliga away games. Moreover, no team has conceded fewer goals away from home than VfL (only 15).

Nevertheless, betting on a win for the Lower Saxons in Dortmund against Wolfsburg is not under a good star. After all, Niko Kovac’s team has already lost 18 of its 28 matches away from home (four wins, six draws) and even lost 6-1 in the final round last season.

Last matches of Wolfsburg:

Bundesliga

• 30/04/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 3 – 0 Mainz 05
• 22/04/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 5 VfL Wolfsburg
• 17/04/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
• 09/04/2023 – Gladbach 2 – 0 VfL Wolfsburg
• 01/04/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 2 – 2 Augsburg

Dortmund – Wolfsburg Direct comparison / H2H balance

Head to head: 32 – 12 – 11

There have been a total of 55 meetings between the two teams so far and with 32 wins, Borussia Dortmund leads the direct comparison very clearly. After 14 Bundesliga duels in a row in which the Wolves only picked up a single point (one draw, 13 defeats), VfL Wolfsburg were lucky to get their first ever treble against the Westphalians in the 2-0 win in the first leg.

Dortmund – Wolfsburg tip

For Dortmund against Wolfsburg, the betting odds are swinging in the direction of Borussia, who have won all of their last nine Bundesliga home games. True, the guest from Lower Saxony is also in strong form and has lost only one of the last nine league games (four wins, four draws). However, in 2023 alone, the Black and Yellows have picked up 13 more points in 15 games than VfL, who have also lost 13 of their last 15 Bundesliga meetings with the Westphalians (one win, one draw).

Despite the fundamentally strong away record of the Wolves, our prediction for Dortmund against Wolfsburg therefore goes to the tenth home win in a row for the Black-Yellows. After all, VfL is also a declared favorite opponent of the Westphalians.