Have the Toffees turned the corner?
Only two of the four quarterfinals in the FA Cup feature two first division teams facing each other. One of them goes down at Selhurst Park in London at 1:30 p.m. on Sunday. Crystal Palace will welcome Everton. According to the odds, the Eagles go into the match as clear favorites. The 1.95 for the home win after 90 minutes implies a probability of occurrence of 49%. On the other hand, a Toffees success after regular time would be rewarded with more than four times the bet.
The guests from Liverpool travel to the capital with a very important sense of achievement behind them. Only on Thursday, they managed a liberation in the relegation battle in front of a home crowd against Newcastle. The redemptive 1:0 was scored in the eighth minute of stoppage time and the team was shorthanded. It is quite possible that this victory, which was hardly thought possible, will now release new strength.
The task will be difficult for Patrick Vieira’s team, though, as Palace have lost only one of their last seven league games and can put all their focus on this FA Cup quarterfinal, considering their position in the gray midfield. In terms of quality, however, the home side is not necessarily above the Toffees, which is why the more promising value ahead of the Crystal Palace vs. Everton clash is presumed to be in the advancement of the supposed underdogs.
Crystal Palace – statistics & current form
Crystal Palace is the personified mediocrity of the English Premier League. On the one hand, this is clear from the fact that the Eagles are currently eleventh in the table, a double-digit point gap to the European Cup places, but at the same time have a more than reassuring cushion of twelve points on the first relegation place. The Londoners’ season is therefore already more or less over.
On the other hand, a look at the number of draws in the current season is enough to verify the thesis. Palace have shared the points with their opponents 13 times. This is the highest number in the league. Consequently, there have only been seven league victories, exactly as many as the upcoming opponent. With this in mind, we don’t think it’s a good idea to bet on a home win between Crystal Palace and Everton after regular time.
The Eagles 2022 in the Premier League still without a home win
A further complicating matters is the fact that Vieira’s team hasn’t won in front of a home crowd against Premier League clubs in quite some time. In 2022, not even at all. The last home win in the league dates back to December 28, 2021, although it has to be said that almost all of the top teams from the top third of the table played at Selhurst Park in that calendar year. The Citizens, for example, went home without a goal and with just one point.
On balance, therefore, we believe that the capital club, which has only made it to the quarter-finals for the sixth time in over 60 years, and on three occasions eventually reached the final round, is currently somewhat overrated by the betting companies. Value is not evident in the Crystal Palace vs Everton odds on the home win. Despite the pronounced focus on this game, we think an elimination of the Londoners is anything but unlikely.
Predicted lineup of Crystal Palace:
Butland; Clyne, Andersen, Guehi, Mitchell; Gallagher, Kouyate, Schlupp; Olise, Mateta, Zaha
Last matches played by Crystal Palace:
Premier League
03/14 2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Manchester City
03/05 2022 – Wolverhampton 0 – 2 Crystal Palace
FA Cup
03/01 2022 – Crystal Palace 2 – 1 Stoke
Premier League
02/26 2022 – Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Burnley
02/23 2022 – Watford 1 – 4 Crystal Palace
Everton – Statistics & current form
Even in his professional days, Frank Lampard was consumed by ambition and a true leader. As a coach, however, the former captain of the “Three Lions” has not yet been able to follow in the big footsteps that he once left as a player. Nor has his involvement with Everton Football Club so far necessarily been marked by sustained success. But perhaps Thursday night finally saw the hoped-for turnaround.
In a memorable post-match match at home against in-form Magpies from Newcastle, the Toffees offered shockingly weak soccer for long stretches of the nearly 100 minutes of play. The nouveau riche visitors were closer to victory, especially after Allan was sent off in the 83rd minute. What followed was pure drama. In the 98th minute, Iwobi scored the emotional winner for the home side. To make matters worse, Coach Lampard broke his hand while celebrating the goal.
Will Everton take the momentum into the FA Cup?
Despite this, we have the feeling that this shared experience and the mental high in the team, which undoubtedly does not have a quality problem, but much more struggles with the head, can release new impetus and strength. Just to follow up on this subjective assessment, we think it’s worth considering making a prediction on the visitors’ progress between Crystal Palace and Everton.
Sometimes it could also be argued that the Toffees see the FA Cup as a welcome change from the relegation battle and have nowhere near as much pressure on the kettle in this other competition as they do in the Premier League. In three matches played to date, Calvert-Lewin and Co. have already scored eight goals. A certain lightness of touch can therefore certainly be felt. So why shouldn’t the ambitious Liverpool side spring a surprise?
The only downer is the somewhat strained personnel situation, because in addition to regular keeper Pickford, the former Chelsea head coach must also do without the suspended Allan and the ineligible Alli and van de Beek. However, Thursday’s momentum has had a positive effect on the entire squad, which is why the value clearly lies with the Premier League’s 17th-placed side in our eyes.
Predicted lineup of Everton:
Begovic; Coleman, Holgate, Keane, Mykolenko; Doucoure, Gomes; Townsend, Gordon, Richarlison; Calvert-Lewin
Last matches played by Everton:
Premier League
03/17 2022 – Everton 1 – 0 Newcastle United
03/13 2022 – Everton 0 – 1 Wolverhampton
03/07 2022 – Tottenham 5 – 0 Everton
FA Cup
03/03 2022 – Everton 2 – 0 Boreham Wood
Premier League
02/26 2022 – Everton 0 – 1 Manchester City
Crystal Palace – Everton Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
43 matches have already been played between the two clubs in the Premier League. Only in eleven cases Crystal Palace kept the upper hand. Everton lead the direct comparison in the top flight with 17 victories. Fifteen games have ended in a draw. The Toffees have also come out on top four times in seven FA Cup clashes, although the last encounters in the prestigious cup competition were 50 years ago.
More relevant, therefore, is the only encounter in the PL season so far, which the Eagles won 3-1 at home. Certainly one of the reasons why the bookmakers see the hosts ahead on Sunday.
Crystal Palace – Everton Tip
Just a week ago, we would have gone along with the bookmakers’ assessment offering far lower betting odds on the home win between Crystal Palace and Everton. Last Thursday, however, the Toffees’ miserable season may have turned in a more positive direction. It wouldn’t be the first time that an emotional last-minute victory in a shorthanded game has released new strength and provided a lot of self-confidence.
Moreover, because we don’t see the Eagles as being nearly as strong as the providers, and this in turn is based on the fact that the Londoners have exactly as many wins in the Premier League as Everton (seven) and have often only drawn, we don’t think a surprise can be ruled out on Sunday lunchtime.
While Frank Lampard, who broke his hand celebrating a goal on Thursday, will have to do without some key players, not feeling the same pressure as in the Premier League can be an advantage. Liverpool don’t have much to lose. Palace, on the other hand, do, after all, the FA Cup is the only remaining highlight for the Vieira team in a season that will end in gray mediocrity in terms of the table.
Bottom line, between Crystal Palace and Everton, we’re going for the Toffees to advance.
