Does Belgium’s golden generation finally retire?
The Belgian national team is facing an early exit from the World Cup in Qatar on Thursday afternoon. Strictly speaking, there is even more at stake, as many players from the golden generation could possibly make their last appearance at a World Cup for their home country.
A draw against the reigning runners-up Croatia will probably not be enough for Roberto Martinez’s team to book their ticket to the knockout stages.
If the Red Devils want to reach the last 16, they will have to bet on a three-goal win for Kevin de Bruyne and Co. in the showdown between Croatia and Belgium on the final matchday in Group F. They would then trail their European opponents on points. They would then move past their European opponents on points, who would then have to hope for a Canadian treble in the parallel match against Morocco.
The starting position in Group F offers a lot and promises a lot of excitement. Only the Canadians, who were convincing in their first match against Belgium, no longer have a chance of finishing in the top two.
Because the third-placed team in the world rankings from Western Europe has to play to win and must take more risks in the second half at the latest, it is perhaps a conceivable option to predict at least three goals in the match between Croatia and Belgium. We have analysed other betting alternatives in more detail below.
Croatia – Statistics & current form
After two matchdays, the Croatian national team leads the table in Group F with four points. Coach Zlatko Dalic’s team fell short of their own expectations in their opening game against Morocco and had to settle for a tired 0-0 draw. They were also 1-0 down early on in their second group game against Canada, but fought back in the manner of the reigning runners-up to secure pole position in the four-team pool with a 4-1 win.
Before the final day of group matches, it is clear that a draw will be enough for the team around veteran Luka Modric to advance to the next round. However, if the world number two wants to finish top of the group and thus probably have to play Germany and not Spain in the last 16, they will need a three-goal win, otherwise they will have to rely on a Moroccan slip-up against Canada.
Croatia with good World Cup record against European opponents
Hope for a good result on Thursday is given above all by the statistics, which show that Croatia have lost only two of their ten World Cup matches against European nations and instead left the pitch as winners six times. Moreover, the Fiery Ones won four of their last five group matches at World Cup finals.
Before the Croatia vs. Belgium clash, the odds on the Dalic team’s success therefore have their appeal, especially considering that the Croats could benefit from a Belgian team that takes risks as the game progresses. The 2018 finalists have no need to hide in terms of quality, and the physical deficiencies that were evident in the opening match were primarily due to the unfamiliar climate, but will no longer play a role in what is now their third match in the Qatar desert.
Croatia with only one defeat in the calendar year 2022
On a positive note, the Vatreni lost their last international match at the beginning of June and have only lost one of their last 18 matches, winning six of their last seven. The success against the North Americans has also boosted the confidence of key players.
Ivan Perisic, who has now been involved in 16 Croatian goals at major tournaments (World Cup, European Championship), set up two goals against Canada. Meanwhile, Andrej Kramaric from Hoffenheim was the match-winner with a brace and could become only the fourth Croatian after Suker, Mandzukic and Perisic to score three or more goals at a World Cup. Coach Dalic has no notable absentees and will therefore not make any major changes to his starting eleven.
Predicted line-up of Croatia:
Livakovic – Sosa, Gvardiol, Lovren, Juranovic – Brozovic, Modric, Kovacic – Perisic, Livaja, Kramaric
Last matches played by Croatia:
World Cup Group F
27/11/2022 – Croatia 4 – 1 Canada
23/11/2022 – Morocco 0 – 0 Croatia
Friendlies
16/11/2022 – Saudi Arabia 0 – 1 Croatia
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 1
26/09/2022 – Austria 1 – 3 Croatia
23/09/2022 – Croatia 2 – 1 Denmark
Belgium – Statistics & current form
13 consecutive group games Belgium remained unbeaten at World Cups. Then came the poor performance against Morocco, which was accompanied by a 0:2 defeat. Now, for the first time since 1982/1986, Belgium are threatened with two World Cup defeats in a row. Such a scenario can definitely not be ruled out, because the performances of the red devils so far are causing many Belgian football fans great concern.
In their fortunate 1-0 win over Canada in the opening game, coach Roberto Martinez’s team benefited from a missed penalty by Alphonso Davies and two missed penalties. The narrow victory even had to be categorised as ‘undeserved’ in view of the share of the game. Instead of showing a suitable reaction, Kevin de Bruyne and Co. once again disappointed all along the line against Morocco and this time were also punished in terms of results.
Belgium must play to win
With their backs to the wall ahead of the final group matchday, the world number two, who at least made it to the semi-finals at the 2018 World Cup finals in Russia and eventually won the small final, have their backs to the wall. A draw is only enough if Morocco lose heavily to Canada. Strictly speaking, the prediction on the red devils must come true between Croatia and Belgium, so that the tournament does not end after the preliminary round for the secret favourites.
Especially offensively, the Martinez team must improve considerably. Only one of their 19 shots on goal so far has found its way behind the line. Defensively, too, the Belgians, who have only won five of their past eleven international matches, are showing major deficits. The backline looks too slow, no longer playing at the highest level at club level either, and has to rely too much on Thibaut Courtois, the only world-class man in the Belgian defence. The Real Madrid keeper is about to make his 100th international appearance and could now become one of seven active players to break that impressive mark.
How much can the struggling Lukaku help?
This elite 100-man squad, incidentally, includes a certain Romelu Lukaku, on whom hopes rest for Thursday afternoon’s final. The Inter attacker was substituted for around ten minutes against Morocco. Perhaps he will be able to start again against Croatia. With or without Lukaku – the belief in their own strength is missing or has been lost.
Belgium’s golden generation will retire – possibly as early as Thursday. The bookmakers consider this to be a realistic constellation, because before the Croatia vs. Belgium match, the odds for Belgium to advance are 2.25, and for them to win the group even 3.00.
Predicted line-up of Belgium:
Courtois – Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Castagne – T. Hazard, Tielemans, Witsel, Meunier – De Bruyne, E. Hazard – Lukaku (Batshuayi)
Last matches played by Belgium:
World Cup Group F
27/11/2022 – Belgium 0 – 2 Morocco
24/11/2022 – Belgium 1 – 0 Canada
Friendlies
18/11/2022 – Belgium 1 – 2 Egypt
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 4
26/09/2022 – Netherlands 1 – 0 Belgium
23/09/2022 – Belgium 2 – 1 Wales
Croatia – Belgium Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
This is the first time that the two national teams from Croatia and Belgium have faced each other at a World Cup finals. The last international match to date took place in June 2021 and ended 1-0 in favour of the red devils, who have only scored six goals in eight encounters against the chequered team.
The direct comparison is absolutely even, with three wins for both teams and two draws. For the upcoming clash on the third matchday of a World Cup group stage, however, the historical results have little relevance anyway.
Croatia – Belgium Tip
The path to the World Cup round of 16 would have been a little easier for Croatia and Belgium. But because the Moroccans in particular have been absolutely convincing with four points from two games so far and have everything in their own hands with a win against Canada on the last matchday, there are currently many indications that the second ticket for the last 16 will be played out between the two group favourites.
The direct duel on Thursday afternoon therefore holds a lot of explosiveness. There is no clear favourite. Almost identical betting odds are offered between Croatia and Belgium on the three-way market. Everything is open. However, the starting position is in favour of the 2018 runners-up, for whom a draw would be enough to advance. The red devils are under pressure and have disappointed at all levels so far.
To rule out some eventualities in the course of such a final, however, we have decided to play the Over 2.5 Goals bet between Croatia and Belgium. The bookmakers tend to expect few goals, but depending on the score, we could expect an open exchange of blows, especially after the change of ends. Both teams do not look particularly stable defensively, but at the same time have enough individual quality to create scoring chances.
