Will the Chinese attack once again?
On other continents, the World Cup qualifiers are already a little further along than in Asia. However, the first round of the final group stage has already been completed and the countdown to the decisive matches is on. One of them could be the match between China and Australia in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday.
For the Chinese it is almost the last chance to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar. The Dragons are currently only fifth in the group of six. The first two qualify directly for the World Cup and the third can hope for intercontinental play-offs. The Chinese are currently five points off third place. The team from the Middle Kingdom is doomed to win.
Australia are three points behind Saudi Arabia in second place with ten points. Japan and Oman are breathing down the Socceroos’ necks. The team from Down Under cannot afford a defeat either. But the pressure is clearly on the team from the Far East. Only optimists dare to predict a successful World Cup qualification for coach Tie Li and his team before the duel between China and Australia.
One disadvantage for the Chinese team is certainly that they are once again not allowed to play at home. So there can be no talk of home advantage again. Nevertheless, the Dragons will fight for their last chance.
China – statistics & current form
China are far from happy with their team’s current performance in World Cup qualifying. Although five foreigners have been naturalised, their backs are already against the wall in the current round. In the Middle Kingdom, the football project is on the verge of being considered a failure.
China under pressure
After an interim high against supposedly weak opponents, there has recently been only one win from five international matches. At this important stage of the qualifiers, of all times, that’s not a good reference and it also means you shouldn’t necessarily play the odds on a win for the Dragons between China and Australia.
There was a small partial success on Thursday when they managed a 1-1 draw against Oman, also in the Emirates. This means that at least third place is still somewhat within reach. A win was possible, as Wu Lei gave his colours a 1-0 lead, but after the Omanis equalised, the final score remained 1-1.
Bitterly for the Chinese, two of their naturalised players will be missing against Australia. Brazilian Fernandinho and Englishman Nico Yennaris will not be available. Otherwise, it will have to be seen what changes the coach makes. Elkeson would certainly be an option for the starting eleven.
Predicted line-up of China:
Junling Yan – Shenchao Wang, Browning, Chenjie Zhu, Linpeng Zhang – Xi Wu, Xin Xu – Aloisio, Alan, Lei Wu – Yuning Zhang – Coach: Tie Li
Last matches played by China:
World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd Round – Group B
11/11 2021 – China 1 – 1 Oman
10/12 2021 – Saudi Arabia 3 – 2 China
10/07 2021 – China 3 – 2 Vietnam
09/07 2021 – China 0 – 1 Japan
09/02 2021 – Australia 3 – 0 China
Australia – Statistics & current form
The Australians are actually still right on target and have everything in their own hands. That is exactly the point that makes coach Graham Arnold optimistic looking ahead. The team from Down Under is not dependent on other teams. However, they must not afford a slip-up against China or the wind will change in Australia.
Bend in the form curve
The Socceroos’ form has been outstanding in recent games, but after 11 straight wins, they have only managed one point in their last two international matches. On Tuesday, it is important to prevent a major dip in form. We think anything is possible and take a look at the different odds between China and Australia.
The Socceroos’ winning streak came to an end in October with a loss to Japan. Perhaps that defeat still had an effect, because a few days ago, on their comeback in front of spectators in their own stadium, they only managed a goalless draw against Saudi Arabia. They missed out on the top spot in the table they were aiming for.
Stoke City centre-back Harry Souttar was also injured against the Saudis and will now miss the game with a knee injury. Milos Degenek is expected to make the squad in his place. Aaron Mooy, Tom Rogic and Andrew Nabbout and Adam Taggart are other notable absentees. All in all, these absences will be difficult to compensate for.
Predicted line-up of Australia:
Ryan – Behich, Sainsbury, Degenek, Grant – Boyle, Irvine, Jeggo, Mabil – Leckie, Hrustic – coach: Arnold
Last matches played by Australia:
World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd round – Group B
11/11 2021 – Australia 0 – 0 Saudi Arabia
10/12 2021 – Japan 2 – 1 Australia
10/07 2021 – Australia 3 – 1 Oman
09/07 2021 – Vietnam 0 – 1 Australia
09/02 2021 – Australia 3 – 0 China
China – Australia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Ten times the national teams from China and Australia have faced each other on the pitch so far. The direct comparison is almost even, as the Socceroos are 5:4 after victories. There has only been one draw between these two rivals. There have been no series worth mentioning so far.
However, the Socceroos have won the last two matches. In 2015, the Australians won 2-0 at home in the quarter-finals of the Asian Cup, and the first leg of the current qualifying campaign was played in Doha in September. Goals from Mabil, Boyle and Duke gave the Australians an emphatic 3-0 win.
China – Australia Tip
For the Chinese it is almost the last chance to get into the fight for the World Cup tickets. With a defeat, the first two places in this group would hardly be attainable. Even third place would be far away, because Oman and Japan play each other in a direct duel. Actually, China is bound to win in this match.
Unfortunately, the health league does not allow the Dragons to play at home. This does not make the situation any easier, but we still expect a Chinese team that will try everything. Because the Australians also have personnel worries, we can imagine placing a tip in one of the well-known betting apps on at least a point win for the team from the Middle Kingdom between China and Australia.
We think that the many absences will be noticeable for the Australians. The Socceroos’ squad is not so well-stocked that they can easily compensate for them. On top of that, there will be the stress of travelling. The bottom line is that we have decided to play the betting odds on a draw between China and Australia.
