Will Chelsea keep their last chance of winning the title?
In the second semi-final of the English FA Cup, two London clubs will face each other on Sunday afternoon. The Blues and the Eagles will determine the team that will face Liverpool Football Club in the final at Wembley Stadium on 14 May 2022.
If we look at the Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace odds before the match, which kicks off on Easter Sunday at 17:30 and will be broadcast live on DAZN, the bookmakers agree that coach Thomas Tuchel’s team will go into the encounter as favourites. On the one hand, this is due to the good cup performances of the Blues in recent years and on the other hand, of course, also due to the qualitative advantages that are attested to the first-mentioned team.
The fact that the Crystal Palace is not to be underestimated, however, has already been felt by several teams in the current season. The hobbyhorse of coach Patrick Vieira is clearly the defence, which is why it is not particularly far-fetched to predict that not many goals will be scored on Sunday in the clash between Chelsea and Crystal Palace. The Under 2.5 is therefore just as appealing a betting option as the Under 3.5.
Chelsea – Statistics & current form
It wouldn’t have taken much on Tuesday night for the Blues, who lost the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final 3-1 to Real Madrid, to actually still make the semi-finals. At the latest after the interim 3:0 at the Estadio Bernabeu, everything actually pointed to the Londoners making the impossible possible. However, two goals followed for the Royal League, who thus pulled their own head out of the noose despite an inferior performance and sent the Tuchel team into a valley of tears.
It will be interesting to see at the weekend whether the Stamford Bridge players have coped with this setback or are still mourning the missed opportunity. We suspect the former scenario and justify this with the fact that the FA Cup offers the only remaining opportunity to win a title this season. The Blues are two wins away from lifting the trophy in Europe’s oldest cup competition for the ninth time.
Final hat-trick for the Blues in the FA Cup?
The Blue and Whites are given added incentive by the fact that they reached the final in each of the last two seasons, but narrowly lost out to Arsenal (2020) and Leicester (2021). If you want to bet on Chelsea and Crystal Palace making it to the final for the third time in a row on Sunday, you can find a 1.29 tip on the “To-Qualify” market, which further underpins the clear favourite status of the (still) reigning Champions League winners.
In terms of form, the past week has impressively proven that the short interim low with the defeats against Brentford (1:4) and Real Madrid in the first leg (1:3) is already a thing of the past. In the Premier League, Havertz and Co. won 6-0 (!) at Southampton a week ago. The aforementioned victory in the Madrid football cathedral followed during the week. In five of the last seven matches at national level, the Blues also remained without conceding a goal, which is why we can well imagine considering the odds on sub-par goals in the Chelsea vs Crystal Palace semi-final.
Ben Chilwell and Callum Hudson-Odoi will definitely be out. Lukaku and Barkley, meanwhile, are still question marks, although both players have played a subordinate role in the German coach’s plans of late anyway. This in turn means that Timo Werner will probably start again. Should he confirm his performance from the Real game, the ex-Leipzig player can become an important factor with his deep runs against a massive Palace defence.
Predicted Chelsea line-up:
Mendy; Azpilicueta, Silva, Rudiger; James, Kovacic, Kante, Alonso; Mount, Werner; Havertz
Last matches played by Chelsea:
FA Cup
17/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 0 Crystal Palace
Champions League Final
13/04/2022 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 Chelsea FC
Premier League
09/04/2022 – Southampton 0 – 6 FC Chelsea
Champions League Final
07/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 3 Real Madrid
Premier League
02/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 1 – 4 Brentford
Crystal Palace – Statistics & current form
For Crystal Palace Football Club, reaching the semi-finals of the FA Cup can already be considered a great success. It is only the fourth time in the club’s history that the Eagles have made it to the last four of this prestigious competition. In two of the three previous semi-finals, the Eagles also made it to the final, most recently in 2015/2016, when the title match was narrowly lost to Manchester United after extra time.
An interesting statistic that does not immediately catch the eye is that the Londoners have only just failed to win in recent years. In ten of the last eleven seasons Palace were eliminated by exactly one goal difference or in extra time.
After 90 minutes, the bet on the over 3.5 would not have gone through in any of these eleven matches, which is why we also consider a prediction on a maximum of three goals after regular time on Sunday between Chelsea and Crystal Palace to be very exciting. This is also supported by the fact that in 22 of the 31 Premier League games played this season involving Crystal Palace, no more than three goals have been scored.
Vieira relies on work against the ball
Coach Patrick Vieira’s side have yet to overcome any major hurdles on their way to the last four. Only Everton, a league rival, had to be defeated in the quarter-finals, but they have performed beyond the pale this season anyway. Only in the 2-1 wins against Millwall and Stoke City did keeper Guaita concede a goal.
In general, the defence is the capital club’s showpiece. In the last nine matches in the English top flight, only Leicester City were able to score more than one goal against Vieira’s team last weekend. In four of the other eight matches, they even managed a defensive zero, so we don’t necessarily believe in an offensive spectacle on Easter Sunday. However, we also think it is less likely that the Eagles will be able to eliminate the great Chelsea FC in such an important semi-final.
In terms of personnel, the French coach will have to do without Conor Gallagher, who is not allowed to play against his parent club due to a clause in his loan contract. The absence of the currently most important midfielder weighs heavily. Apart from that, Nathan Ferguson is the only professional who will definitely be missing. However, the injured Hughes, Mitchell and Olise are still question marks.
Predicted line-up of Crystal Palace:
Guaita; Clyne, Andersen, Guehi, Mitchell; McArthur, Kouyate, Schlupp; Ayew, Mateta, Zaha
Last matches played by Crystal Palace:
FA Cup
17/04/2022 – Chelsea FC 2 – 0 Crystal Palace
Premier League
10/04/2022 – Leicester 2 – 1 Crystal Palace
05/04/2022 – Crystal Palace 3 – 0 Arsenal FC
FA Cup
20/03/2022 – Crystal Palace 4 – 0 Everton
Premier League
15/03/2022 – Crystal Palace 0 – 0 Manchester City
Chelsea – Crystal Palace Direct comparison / H2H record
Almost exactly two months ago, the two clubs faced each other in the Premier League. In a tightly contested match, Chelsea had the upper hand with a narrow 1-0 win away from home. Hakim Ziyech was the match-winner with his 89th-minute goal. In the first half of the season, the Blues won 3-0 and have now won 25 of their 40 Premier League games against Palace.
In the FA Cup, meanwhile, the record is even. Both clubs have two wins and one draw. However, the last time they crossed paths was in the 1975/76 season, so the historical data is not really relevant to the upcoming clash.
Chelsea – Crystal Palace Tip
After Liverpool edged out Manchester City in the first FA Cup semi-final on Saturday, the second finalist will now be decided on Easter Sunday. The likelihood that the FA Cup final on 14 May will look exactly the same as this season’s League Cup title match is pretty high. According to the odds, Chelsea will be the clear favourites against Crystal Palace.
The fact that the Blues have not only won both of their season meetings against their capital rivals, but have also won the last nine Premier League matches against their upcoming opponents, supports their status as favourites.
We have therefore opted for the combined tip between Chelsea and Crystal Palace that the home side will go through to the final, but that at the same time a maximum of three goals will be scored in the 90 minutes. Even in the event of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw after normal time, our bet could still go through.
