Avanciert Cadiz auch unter Druck zum Favoritenschreck?
In many leagues, it is increasingly the case that it is no longer the quality of the individual teams or the course of the game so far that is decisive for the distribution of the odds, but rather the starting constellation that the respective match brings for the table. There is no other explanation, for example, for the high odds of 2.25 on an away win for the champions and Champions League finalists between Cadiz and Real Madrid.
The fact is that the visitors have nothing at stake, while the home side currently occupy the last non-relegation spot, but are far from secure considering they are only two points ahead.
Whether this starting position must necessarily lead to attributing such a high win rate to the royals in advance, however, should be critically questioned. Already during the week, Ancelotti’s team had the upper hand against a relegation candidate like Levante with a commanding 6-0 win. Against this backdrop, we venture a prediction between Cadiz and Real Madrid that the away win offers some value.
Cadiz – Statistics & current form
Cadiz is playing a crazy season so far. Crazy in that last year’s twelfth-placed team has only won seven games and still has a realistic chance of staying in the league with two matchdays to go. They are two points ahead of the first relegation place. Excitement seems to be guaranteed, because on the last matchday, the direct duel in Alaves, the penultimate of the ranking, is still on the agenda. Nevertheless, everything is in their own hands.
This is partly due to the fact that the Andalusians have lost “only” 15 games, which is significantly less than the three teams behind them in the standings. A whopping 14 draws round off the tally.
Cadiz surprise against top clubs
In individual games, the southern Spaniards were able to rise above themselves time and again. Especially against the top teams of the league, Cadiz usually looked really good. In the first leg against Real Madrid, for example, the team of coach Sergio, who was not yet on the bench at the time but was only hired as the new manager after a negative series in mid-January, fought their way to a 0-0 draw. In recent weeks, they have taken all three points from the Camp Nou, snatched a point from Sevilla and beat Champions League semi-finalists Villarreal.
So perhaps it is this status as favourites that explains the odds on the three-way market ahead of the clash between Cadiz and Real Madrid. However, it should not be neglected that statistically the “Amarillos” are the weakest home team in La Liga. Three home victories are offset by eight draws and seven defeats. Only three other teams scored fewer goals at home.
Predicted line-up of Cadiz:
Ledesma; Akapo, Hernandez, Chust, Espino; Sobrino, Mari, Alcaraz, Idrissi; Negredo, Perez
Last matches played by Cadiz:
16/05/2022 – Cadiz 1 – 1 Real Madrid
12/05/2022 – Real Sociedad 3 – 0 Cadiz
07/05/2022 – Cadiz 3 – 0 Elche
30/04/2022 – Sevilla FC 1 – 1 Cadiz
22/04/2022 – Cadiz 2 – 3 Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
For the Madrilenians, everything in these days and weeks is subordinated to the Champions League final at the end of May in Paris against Liverpool. The aim is to find the right mix. On the one hand, the professionals should not lose their form and rhythm. On the other hand, Carlo Ancelotti wants to manage the workload of his players in such a way that no one gets injured or is less rested going into the title game of the top division.
How seriously does Real still take the league?
Accordingly, when it comes to games involving the royals, it is always a legitimate question at the moment as to which personnel will feature. After almost all the stars were in the starting eleven in the 6-0 win over Levante during the week, it cannot be ruled out that the coach will rotate. Nevertheless, we believe that an improved B eleven of the champions should still be able to defeat a relegation candidate.
Of course, statistics or number players from the season so far still lose importance, which is why we don’t want to go into any more detail at this point. It is clear, however, that the sporting ambition and also the honour of the Galactics forbids them to approach this encounter with less than 100%. Due to the enormous experience, we are convinced that betting on an away win between Cadiz and Real Madrid is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Nacho, Mendy; Valverde, Casemiro, Kroos; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
16/05/2022 – Cadiz 1 – 1 Real Madrid
13/05/2022 – Real Madrid 6 – 0 Levante
09/05/2022 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 0 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
05/05/2022 – Real Madrid3 – 1 Manchester City
30/04/2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 0 Espanyol
Cadiz – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
The direct comparison also leaves no questions unanswered, although the Andalusians have been able to annoy the heavyweight from the capital from time to time in the recent past. In total, however, there are 19 wins in 27 encounters in the Spanish top flight (four draws, four defeats).
However, the balance from the last three meetings in 2020 and 2021 is even. Cadiz won in Madrid last year, but lost the second leg. They drew the first leg of the current season.
Cadiz – Real Madrid tip
It should be said in advance that the affinity for risk in the form of the betting level should rather decrease on the last match days. Given the constellations, crazy match progressions and unexpected results are virtually the order of the day. At the same time, the distribution of the quotations naturally also offers opportunities, for example on Sunday in the Spanish La Liga.
There it comes to the clash between Cadiz and Real Madrid. According to the betting odds, the champions and Champions League finalists are by no means as clear favourites as one might have expected. The reason is simple: The Andalusians are still fighting to stay in the league and need every point, while the visitors from the capital are letting the season slowly run out and definitely don’t want to injure themselves.
Despite this, the quality of the Galactics is undisputed, regardless of which players will ultimately be on the pitch. Moreover, the southern Spaniards represent the weakest home team in the league. The pressure is also on the home side, especially as they are in danger of slipping into the first relegation spot. The starting position is therefore different than in many other duels against the top teams, in which the Sergio team was quite convincing.