Does Cadiz push past Vigo?

The relegation battle in the Spanish La Liga could hardly be more exciting. With two matchdays to go, just five points separate the second-last team in the standings and 13th-placed Vigo. Because Elche have already been relegated for a few weeks, seven first division teams still have to fight to stay in the top flight and leave at least two other teams behind them.

Although Cadiz are currently level on points with the first relegation place and still just above the line in 17th place, the southern Spaniards have a supposedly good starting position. The background to this is the Andalusians’ feasible remaining programme, which sees them travel to Elche on the last matchday, who are bottom of the table, and face a direct rival at home on Sunday evening.

If the home win in the clash between Cadiz and Celta Vigo proves to be the case, it would mean a big step towards staying in the league, especially as the hosts would also be able to overtake their opponents from Galicia.

Looking at the last results of both teams, a home win seems to be within the realm of possibility. While “Los Amarillos” were able to win their two most recent matches at home, the Light Blue-Whites have had virtually nothing to show for their efforts away from home in recent weeks.

If this trend continues, odds in the range of 2.65 are offered for the home team’s success in the relegation battle between Cadiz and Celta Vigo. A clear favourite looks different, but it is complicated anyway to place a bet on the three-way market in such important matches.

Cadiz – Statistics & current form

From matchday one, it was actually clear to those in charge of Cadiz Club de Futbol that their third year after promotion would be all about staying in the division. After finishing 17th in the previous year, the people in charge would immediately sign off on the same position in 2022/23, provided it was achieved after 38 match days.

Until then, however, a tough battle is on the horizon, as the southern Spaniards are currently level on points with the first relegation place. The fact that the team of coach Sergio, who has been in charge since January 2022 and enjoys the full confidence of the club’s bosses, does not have a particularly good goal difference is of little significance, as in the Spanish La Liga the direct comparison is the deciding factor at the end of the season in the event of a points tie.

Will Cadiz win their third home game in a row?

It will be all the more important for the Andalusians to win the upcoming clash against their rivals from the lower third of the table. In this respect, the pleasing home record, which clearly contrasts with the weaker results away from home, is a source of hope. 24 of the 38 points were won at home. There were six wins and six draws at home. There were also six defeats.

In view of the fact that “Los Amarillos” have recently won two home matches in a row, beating Real Valladolid and Valencia, two direct rivals, we are not averse to taking advantage of the odds on a positive result for the hosts in the match between Cadiz and Celta Vigo on Sunday evening.

It might be a good idea to combine the double chance 1X with a low number of goals. The fact is that in ten of the last eleven home games of the southern Spanish team in La Liga, there have never been more than three goals. In nine of the said eleven games, even the bet on the under 2.5 would have gone through, which is why we again believe in a low-scoring match at the Nuevo Mirandilla. With slight advantages for the Sergio eleven.

Celta Vigo – Statistics & current form

At least three months ago, few experts would have expected Celta Vigo to fear for their relegation until the very end. Even after 26 match days, the men of Portuguese coach Carlos Carvalhal still had a fairly comfortable eight-point lead over the first relegation spot. At that time, the Light Blue and White were in tenth position and were even looking upwards.

In the meantime, however, the tide has turned completely. The decisive factor is the disappointing form that has lasted for several weeks. The club from Galicia has only managed one victory in the past ten La Liga games. As many as six of the last eight matches were lost. The former Champions League participants (2003/04) have managed to pick up just one point in the last five match days.

The Vigo players are running out of pen

With this abysmal form in mind, which is incidentally reflected in four away defeats in a row, we are far from eyeing the odds on an away win for the penultimate matchday encounter between Cadiz and Celta Vigo. The fact that only four wins have come in 18 away games this season, with Celtic averaging less than one goal per game (17 in total), underlines our assessment.

To make matters worse, the visitors’ squad is actually capable of much more. The fact that the Light Blue and Whites have fallen into the relegation quagmire is therefore a threat, because, unlike the upcoming opponents, for example, not so many players in the Carvalhal squad are familiar with fighting for their sporting existence. Consequently, there is a completely different pressure, which Iago Aspas and Co. have not really known how to deal with lately.

Speaking of Iago Aspas: The 35-year-old attacker is considered the life insurance of the Vigo offensive, but had to take a break recently due to lumbago. Without the (former) international’s twelve goals for the season, he lacks the necessary danger in his play with the ball. How fit Aspas, who was only substituted for nine minutes against Girona during the week, really is will therefore probably only be decided shortly before kick-off.

Cadiz – Celta Vigo Direct comparison / H2H-balance

17 times the clubs have faced each other in the Spanish top flight so far. Celta Vigo lead the direct comparison with eight wins compared to five draws and four defeats. In Cadiz, however, the Celts have only won one of eight away games (five draws, two defeats). This in turn supports our Cadiz vs. Celta Vigo prediction that there will be no away win on Sunday evening either. In fact, only three times in 17 matches has the respective guest come out on top.

Cadiz – Celta Vigo tip

Only Celta Vigo fans will have fond memories of the first leg. In their own stadium, the light blue and white team won 3:0. No one would have expected at the beginning of September that the two clubs would be involved in the immediate relegation battle, separated by only two points after 36 of 38 match days.

It is precisely this constellation that makes it so difficult for the visitors. For some weeks now, nothing has been going right. They have only won one of their last ten La Liga matches. In the last five matches, the Celtic team has only managed one point. Carvalhal’s side have lost four in a row away from home. As a first approach, we therefore take a closer look at the odds on the double chance 1X between Cadiz and Celta Vigo.

We are still linking this tendency with an under bet, as there has not been much spectacle in the southern Spaniards’ home matches throughout the season. In nine of the last eleven matches at home, a maximum of two goals were scored. The last two direct duels at home against Celta Vigo even ended goalless.

In the run-up to the match between Cadiz and Celta Vigo, we are therefore betting on 1X & under 3.5