Can Bolivia upset the Ecuadorians?
Failure to start for the Bolivian national team in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. After two matchdays in the current qualifying phase of the CONMEBOL zone, Bolivia carries the red lantern as the weakest team in the standings. A disastrous group opener against Brazil (1:5) was followed by a home debacle (0:3) against reigning world champions Argentina.
Bolivia will now face Ecuador in their third group game and will also benefit from home advantage. Nevertheless, the best bookmakers see “La Verde” as the underdog. Since October 2016, the Bolivians have lost each of the last five H2hs. Our Bolivia vs. Ecuador tip therefore rules out a win for “La Verde” this time as well.
It was just under four months ago that the two nations met in a test match. The Ecuadorians came out on top with a 1-0 win over Bolivia. It was the second consecutive H2h in which “La Tri” kept its clean slate against the Bolivians.
Good chance Ecuador will keep Bolivia’s offense in check this time as well. The strength of Ecuador’s defense was already evident in Argentina’s group opener in World Cup qualifying. It is therefore natural to predict that Bolivia vs. Ecuador will be a low-scoring encounter.
Bolivia – statistics & current form
Bolivia has not qualified for a World Cup since 1994. “La Verde” has flown largely under the radar in qualifiers since then. At the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, there was a meager record of 4-3-11 in 18 group games, with only Venezuela picking up fewer points than the Bolivians during that period.
A similar result cannot be ruled out this time around, although the two defeats in the first two group matches of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers will have to be absorbed. After all, “La Verde” faced two mammoth tasks in Brazil and Argentina on the first two match days of the qualifying phase.
Even before the two difficult hurdles in the World Cup qualifiers, however, Bolivia did not put in its best performances in the international matches beforehand. Since January 2022, the Bolivian national team has won just one of its last 13 matches. In return, it hailed a total of 11 defeats for “La Verde” during this period.
Ecuador a fearful opponent for the Bolivians?
Adding to the recent form curve is the fact that Ecuador is not one of the Bolivians’ favorite opponents anyway. Bolivia has not won against their upcoming opponent since June 2015. In the last five H2hs, there were even five defeats. Therefore, it is daring to bet on “La Verde” in the upcoming match between Bolivia vs. Ecuador.
National coach Gustavo Costas can largely draw from the full. Of the squad that was used in the last international break, however, Fernandez will have to take a break due to suspension. The Bolivian winger was sent off against Argentina and will therefore not be available against Ecuador.
In their last six home games, Bolivia have a record of 0-1-5 and have failed to score in four of those six matches. It is therefore not at all far-fetched to bet on a low-scoring encounter in the match against Ecuador.
Predicted Bolivia lineup:
Viscarra; Diego Bejarano, Quinteros, Jusino, Sagredo, Haquin; Justiniano, Vaca, Villarroel; Ramallo, Moreno
Ecuador – statistics & current form
Ecuador was already punished with a point deduction in the run-up to the World Cup qualifiers. Therefore, the defeat in the group opener against Argentina was all the more serious, especially since the Ecuadorian national team was by no means inferior in terms of play. In a match that was intense in terms of two-on-two battles, “La Tri” only narrowly missed out on a point.
On the other hand, things went much better on the second match day. In the encounter against Uruguay, Ecuador fought back from a 1-0 deficit to claim three important points in front of their home crowd. The team of national coach Félix Sánchez thus also gave up the red lantern and is no longer in last place for the time being.
The win against the Uruguayans was the fourth international success in the last five matches. It is quite possible that this form curve will also be underpinned against Bolivia, even if the group match away from home will not be a sure-fire success. Nevertheless, a prediction on Bolivia vs. Ecuador has value.
Does Ecuador overcome away weakness?
For that to happen, the Ecuadorian national team just needs to tweak its record on foreign soil. Since November 2021, “La Tri” has won just three of its last 13 international matches away from home across all competitions. Before the defeat to Argentina, however, Ecuador had won two away matches in a row, scoring five goals in the process.
At least one goal against Bolivia is also likely. In eight of the last nine H2hs, Ecuador has scored two or more goals against the Bolivians. It is quite possible that the goal quota will be underpinned this time as well.
National coach Sánchez has only manageable personnel worries for the match against the Bolivians. With the current squad, the Spaniard is well-positioned with his team and should not have too much trouble against the in-form Bolivians.
Predicted lineup of Ecuador:
Galindez; Preciado, Torres, Hincapie, Pacho, Hurtado; Gruezo, Caicedo, Perez; Valencia, Rodriguez
Bolivia – Ecuador Direct comparison / H2H balance
In the last 36 meetings between the two nations, Ecuador leads the H2h with a record of 18-12-6. A total of 106 goals have been scored – an average of 2.86 goals per match. Bets on Over 2.5 goals have paid off in five of the last six H2hs. Only the last meeting in June 2023 was a low-scoring encounter (1-0 to Ecuador).
Bolivia – Ecuador betting tips
After a difficult group opener against Argentina, Ecuador picked up three important points against Uruguay on matchday two to level the score. Now they face Bolivia, the next feasible hurdle, as the Bolivians’ upcoming opponents started their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign with two defeats and conceded as many as eight goals in the process.
In addition, Bolivia has lost its last five H2hs against Ecuador. Just four months ago, Bolivia already drew the short straw in a test match. A similar result this time is obvious.
We expect a win for the Ecuadorians. After the comeback against Uruguay (2:1), it would be more than surprising if “La Tri” fails at the hurdle against the Bolivians, even though the away games in Bolivia are real endurance tests. In the last World Cup qualifier, Ecuador already won against the Bolivians in both the first and second legs.
