Will Bayern once again become the ‘Bestia Negra’?
On Tuesday evening, the most-played match in the history of Europe’s most important competition for club teams enters its next round. Bayern and Real Madrid will face off for the eighth time in the semi-finals of the Champions League (or European Cup Winners’ Cup) alone – we provide betting tips and odds for this clash in this article. After Munich advanced in four of the first five cases, the Blancos last secured a ticket to the final in both 2013/14 and 2017/18
In general, FCB are no longer the “Bestia Negra” that the Galacticos have been up against time and time again. The Reds are currently on a seven-game winless streak against the Spanish record champions (one draw, six defeats) – their longest drought in a European competition. Nevertheless, the prediction that Bayern will progress against Real Madrid is by no means a foregone conclusion
Not to be underestimated is the fact that Bayern only have a chance of winning a title in the top flight. So if the 2023/24 season is not to go down in the annals of history as a complete mess, the trophy must be brought to the Isar. However, if FCB have had home advantage in the first leg of the knockout phase of the top flight, Munich have been eliminated in three of the last four, while Real Madrid have progressed in twelve of the last 13 cases when the Blancos were allowed to play the first leg away from home.
Nevertheless, we believe that the Reds can at least avoid a home defeat in a potentially high-scoring rather than low-scoring first leg. We therefore recommend the combined bet on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals. However, if you don’t want to rule out a win for the Whites, you can alternatively bet on over 2.5 goals at Happybet at odds of 1.65. New customers can also currently take advantage of a 150% deposit bonus of up to €100 with this bookie
Bayern – Statistics & current form
FC Bayern Munich failed to win the DFB Cup against a third division team and had to concede the championship to Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. As a result, there is only one way for the Reds to somehow save the 2023/24 season: by winning the UEFA Champions League.
The players from the Isar do not play the biggest role in the 2024 Champions League winners’ predictions. However, they already proved in the quarter-final against Arsenal FC that, despite the many wobbles in the Bundesliga and the full sick bay on good days, they still have enough playing potential to wrestle down even top European clubs
Bayern with a strong Champions League home record
It should be noted, however, that Real Madrid will be another fearsome opponent at the Allianz Arena. FC Bayern have now gone seven competitive games without a win against the Blancos (one draw, six defeats) and have lost their last three international home games in a row.
Nevertheless, Munich bring enormous home strength into this semi-final. The German record champions have lost just one of their last 24 home matches in the top flight (20 wins, three draws) and have gone unbeaten in 15 consecutive Champions League home games since a 2:3 draw against PSG in the 2020/21 quarter-finals. FCB have even kept a clean sheet in seven of their last ten home games
Will Harry Kane score for Bayern again?
With Bayern against Real Madrid, it’s by no means out of the question that the Reds can secure a good starting position for the second leg with a first-leg win. After all, Thomas Tuchel’s side have the necessary momentum and have won their last four competitive games in a row.
In addition, Harry Kane is an absolute difference-maker who has already been involved in ten goals in the 2023/24 season (seven goals, three assists). Incidentally, odds of 2.30 are available at Merkur Bets for the Briton to score against the Blancos as well.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid have been playing great lately. Not only did the Blancos win the Clásico 3:2 and take a big step towards the national championship, but they even eliminated defending champions Manchester City on penalties in the Champions League quarter-finals.
They did lose to city rivals Atlético Madrid in the Copa del Rey. However, at least the double of the league title and the trophy is by no means unrealistic for the galactic side, who are known to hold the status of record winners in both competitions
The second leg in their own stadium speaks for Real Madrid
Since their cup exit against the Rojiblancos, Real Madrid have not lost any of their subsequent 18 competitive matches (twelve wins, six draws). The Merengues also extended their unbeaten run in the Champions League to ten games (seven wins, three draws), although after seven wins in a row, the last three games in the top flight have all ended in draws.
However, the Whites would have no complaints about another draw at the Allianz Arena. Carlo Ancelotti’s side would then hold all the aces in the second leg. In twelve of the last 13 cases, the Blancos have also always progressed when they first had to play away from home in the knockout round
Real Madrid are very difficult to beat
At the moment, the bookmakers’ odds for Bayern v Real Madrid are against a fourth away win in a row for the galactic side on the Isar. However, it should be noted that Ancelotti’s side have lost just one of their last twelve matches in the knockout phase of the Champions League (seven wins, four draws) and will therefore arrive on a very strong run of form.
The lack of a genuine center forward, which was seen as highly problematic in the run-up to the 2023/24 season following the departure of Karim Benzema, was also not a factor. Benzema’s replacement Joselu only scored eight goals in La Liga. However, the gap has been filled not only by Jude Bellingham, who has scored 21 goals in 36 competitive games for the Merengues, but also by Vinicius Junior, who has contributed 19 goals and 11 assists in 33 competitive appearances.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Bayern – Real Madrid head-to-head comparison / H2H result
Head to head: 11 – 3 – 12
The two teams have played a total of 26 competitive European matches to date and Real Madrid now lead the head-to-head with twelve wins. The Blancos are currently unbeaten in seven meetings with Bayern (six wins, one draw) and have won all of their last three visits to the Allianz Arena, scoring a total of 8-2
Bayern – Real Madrid betting tip
The Whites have recently developed into one of Munich’s most fearsome opponents. FCB have lost all of their last three Champions League home games against the Blancos, scoring 2:8 goals. Nevertheless, our predictions for Bayern v Real Madrid lean towards the German record champions, who definitely have the playing potential to secure a good starting position for the complicated second leg. The Reds are also strong at home and are currently unbeaten in 15 Champions League home games in a row.
A result such as 1:1 would also be a good starting position for the Blancos for the second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu. In our opinion, the combined bet on the double chance 1X with over 1.5 goals, which does not rule out such a result, is correspondingly interesting.
For this, betting odds of 1.80 are available for Bayern vs Real Madrid, which we play at Betway with four units
