Does Bayern still manage the miracle?
Katja Ebstein already sang in 1970 about the miracles that always happen. Even in soccer, things happen that you can’t even imagine beforehand. For Bayern Munich, it’s time to put such a soccer miracle into practice if they want to reach the semifinals of the Champions League. However, we’re not getting carried away with placing a bet on the German champions advancing in the second leg between Bayern and Manchester City.
After the 0:3 at the Etihad Stadium, the chances for Thomas Tuchel’s team are extremely bad. To date, only four teams have managed to overturn a three-goal deficit from a first leg in the Champions League. FCB would love to join the list of miracle teams from La Coruna, Barcelona, Rome, and Liverpool.
At this point, however, it’s already time to be realistic, because Manchester City has become a fearful opponent for the Munich team in recent years. Of the teams the FCB has faced more than five times in the Champions League, AC Milan, Real Madrid and the Citizens have won more than 50 percent of their games against the German record champions. From there, we wouldn’t even get carried away with a prediction on a home win between Bayern and Manchester City.
Bayern – statistics & current form
At FC Bayern, there is currently a regression to the former times of FC Hollywood. Both the bosses, as well as the staff currently leave no opportunity to put their foot in it. Whether it’s the debate about the lost “Mia san Mia” or whether it’s about brawls among players. The Munich team is currently taking it all in stride. Add to that a coaching change that is becoming less and less comprehensible.
Average record under Tuchel
Thomas Tuchel was supposed to be the man to lead FC Bayern to three titles. After five games under his direction, the record is sobering. In addition to two wins and a draw, there have already been two defeats under the new coach. This means that the DFB Cup title is effectively no longer possible and the Champions League requires a match on Wednesday, which is not so common.
Bayern seem to have lost their self-image at the moment. If you have led at home in the Allianz Arena, what it was at least in the Bundesliga always just a question of how high the home victory will be. After Benjamin Pavard’s goal last Saturday, FCB led 1-0 against Hoffenheim, but became more unsure by the minute and had to settle for a draw in the end. This game alone says a lot about the state of mind at the record champion at the moment. There was not much to be seen of an expected act of defiance after the defeat in England. Nevertheless, Bayern remain top of the Bundesliga, but must continue to fight for what may be their only remaining title.
Many hopes rest on the shoulders of Leroy Sane in the second leg against the Citizens. The ex-Manchester player orchestrated most of the dangerous ball actions in the first leg. On balance, though, what Bayern showed at the Etihad Stadium was harmless. Perhaps it is also Sadio Mane, who has served his internal club ban after the violent dispute with Leroy Sane and should be eager for a reconciliation with the team and fans, who provides decisive moments. In any case, Thomas Tuchel’s eleven will try everything and that is why we also look at the odds for excess goals in the match between Bayern and Manchester City.
Last matches of Bayern:
Bundesliga
- 15/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Hoffenheim
Champions League Final
- 12/04/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
- 08/04/2023 – SC Freiburg 0 – 1 Bayern Munich
DFB Cup
- 05/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
- 01/04/2023 – Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Manchester City – statistics & current form
Pep Guardiola can certainly do without if his team still makes it to the semi-finals of the Champions League. But if things go perfectly for Manchester City, the Catalan could be the third coach after Carlo Ancelotti and Alex Ferguson to break the 100-win mark in the top flight. In doing so, however, the Citizens coach will have needed far fewer games to celebrate this anniversary victory, even if it doesn’t happen in Munich on Wednesday.
Citizens in overform
At least it doesn’t look like a defeat, though, as the Citizens have lost just one of their last 20 games against a team from the Bundesliga. In the knockout round, the record looks even better with eight wins and one draw from nine games. From there, we even tend to place a prediction on a win for the English in this second leg between Bayern and Manchester City.
Manchester has now been unbeaten since mid-February. Most recently, there were ten wins in a row. Last weekend, there was a 3-1 win at home against Leicester City. After half an hour, the game was already over at 3-0. John Stones put the game to bed before Erling Haaland made everything clear with his goals of the season, 31 and 32. The Norwegian forward is now just two goals away from a Premier League record. Here, too, it should only be a matter of time before Haaland breaks it. And it’s not just since this victory that Manchester has sensed a chance to snatch the Premier League championship from Arsenal’s grasp.
Erling Haaland is also unstoppable in the Champions League, where he leads the scoring charts with eleven goals. He has thus equaled his own record. Currently he is unstoppable and scores almost at will.
Last Manchester City games:
Premier League
- 15/04/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 1 Leicester
Champions League Final
- 12/04/2023 – Manchester City 3 – 0 Bayern Munich
Premier League
- 08/04/2023 – Southampton 1 – 4 Manchester City
- 01/04/2023 – Manchester City 4 – 1 Liverpool FC
FA Cup
- 19/03/2023 – Manchester City 6 – 0 Burnley
Bayern – Manchester City Direct comparison / H2H balance
Including two friendlies, Bayern Munich and Manchester City have crossed paths nine times to date. There aren’t many teams that Bayern lose out to in head-to-head comparisons, but with 3-6 wins, the English have fared better in their previous duels. The last two duels both went to the Citizens.
Moreover, Pep Guardiola, who lost to Thomas Tuchel in the final of the 2021 Champions League, seems to have deciphered his coaching opponent. The last three direct duels between the two coaches went to the Catalan. This was also the case in the first leg, which the Citizens won 3-0 after goals from Rodri, Bernardo Silva and Erling Haaland. However, the result was perhaps a goal too high, with the Munich side bringing this hefty defeat on themselves through individual errors.
Bayern – Manchester City Tip
Although you have seen so much history in soccer, we can not imagine with the best will in the world that the mentally battered Bayern against the best-tuned passing machine from Manchester will still realize the jump to the semifinals of the Champions League. The team at the German record champion is obviously not right and Thomas Tuchel is still too new at Säbener Straße to be able to work on all the construction sites.
Two wins from five games under the new coach are a poor record for FC Bayern and the results would probably not have been worse under Julian Nagelsmann. The Citizens, on the other hand, have ten wins in a row under their belt.
Not infrequently, Bayern have been at their strongest with their backs against the wall, but with the Citizens now comes an opponent who is absolutely in the flow and currently looks overpowering for the record champion. Moreover, Pep Guardiola has won all of the last three games against Thomas Tuchel and we expect this series to be extended. And then there is the question of who is going to stop this Erling Haaland. We have therefore decided to play the betting odds on an away win between Bayern and Manchester City.
