Successful Tuchel debut in the classic?
Seldom has the starting position before the German classic been as explosive, exciting and thrilling as this time. On the one hand, the table situation brings fire. On the other, the Bayern quake during the international break. With Thomas Tuchel instead of Julian Nagelsmann on the bench, the record champions will be going all out to reclaim top spot in the Bundesliga on Saturday evening (from 18:30 live on Sky).
The fact that this will not be an easy task for Munich, however, has primarily to do with the fact that BVB have not yet lost a single match at national level in the calendar year 2023. After the winter break, the Black and Yellows made up nine points on the FCB and finally took over the lead in the standings a fortnight ago.
Should the bet on the away win now pay off in the 26th matchday in the German top flight between Bayern and Dortmund, the betting odds on Borussia’s first championship since 2011/12 would drop abruptly.
Meanwhile, there are of course many unanswered questions ahead of the match of all players in German football. What has Thomas Tuchel already been able to achieve in two proper training sessions? Can BVB take something tangible home from the Allianz Arena for the first time after losing eight matches in a row and what are the latest updates in terms of personnel? We will inform you in detail in the following paragraphs and give you our Bayern vs. Dortmund prediction.
Bayern – statistics & current form
Whoever thought that things would be quiet and contemplative at Säbener Straße during the two-week break, which was almost deserted due to numerous international match cancellations, was proved wrong just over a week ago. It was Thursday evening when the first media suddenly reported that Julian Nagelsmann was about to be dismissed. Rumours quickly turned into reality and Thomas Tuchel was presented as his successor just as quickly.
After his stints at Paris St. Germain and Chelsea, the Swabian by training is now returning to the Bundesliga. As if the installation of the 49-year-old didn’t already create enough hype, Champions League winner Tuchel will be facing his former employer on his Bayern debut. In other words, the club that once sent the world coach of 2021 out the door after the DFB Cup victory due to irreconcilable differences with the bosses.
Is there a Tuchel effect?
Despite all the emotionality that this constellation inevitably brings with it, it certainly makes sense to apply rationality and objectivity with regard to the sporting starting position. The record champions are currently one point behind in second place, lost 2-1 at Leverkusen before the international break and have collected ten points less than their arch-enemy Dortmund since the beginning of the year.
Nevertheless, there are good reasons why the odds are clearly in favour of the home side ahead of the upcoming classic between Bayern and Dortmund. In particular, the fact that the FCB has won the last eight home games against Borussia in the league underlines the role of favourites. It is also interesting to note that the Munich side have not lost any of their last 25 matches on a Saturday night (20 wins, five draws).
Bayern and the special strength in top matches
Generally, it is in the DNA of the serial champions from the Isar to bring full horsepower to the pitch in the important top matches. A few weeks ago, another team, Union Berlin, scratched at the throne of Bayern, who then made short work of it in the direct duel on matchday 23 and retained the upper hand with 3:0.
The Black and Yellows are of a completely different calibre, but it should give you pause for thought that Joshua Kimmich and Co. have not lost a single one of the past 19 games in which the first team has met the second.
On balance, the home side’s implied role as favourites is therefore perfectly understandable, especially as Bayern are still unbeaten in ten home games this season (six wins, four draws) and provide both the most dangerous attack (31 goals) and the most stable defence (eight goals conceded) at home.
Although there are still a few question marks regarding personnel after the international break, there are currently many indications that, with the exception of the long-term injured Neuer, Hernandez and Tel, all players will be available. This also applies to Jamal Musiala, who recently had to cancel his international match due to an injury.
Last matches of Bayern:
19/03/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 Bayern Munich
11/03/2023 – Bayern Munich 5 – 3 Augsburg
Champions League Final
09/03/2023 – Bayern Munich 2 – 0 Paris Saint-Germain
05/03/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 1 – 2 Bayern Munich
26/02/2023 – Bayern Munich 3 – 0 Union Berlin
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Regardless of who will be on the sidelines for Bayern on Saturday night, the anticipation for the top match is understandably undiminished for Edin Terzic and his Dortmund side. Borussia has absolutely earned this special match in the Allianz Arena thanks to an outstanding 2023 football year so far.
At the turn of the year, few would have thought it possible that the Black and Yellows, who spent the winter in only sixth place, would even be able to get into the title race again. However, because BVB finally picked up 28 of a possible 30 points from ten Bundesliga games this year, i.e. nine victories, only drew against Schalke 04 and did not suffer a single defeat, they now even hold the top position.
Dortmund 2023 almost flawless at national level
For the first time since the second matchday of the 2019/20 season, the ball club enters a matchday as league leaders. The last time Borussia were top of the table in the second leg was on matchday 27 in 2018/19. At that time, however, they suffered a heavy 0:5 defeat at FC Bayern München in the Allianz Arena. Hopefully not a bad omen from Dortmund’s point of view…
Considering the truly brilliant statistics delivered by the Terzic team in 2023, there are certainly many who see the most attractive value between Bayern and Dortmund in the odds on the double chance X2. Nevertheless, it must be stated that Marco Reus and his colleagues have conceded five of their total of six defeats this season away from home and even have a negative goal difference (16:17) away from home.
How fit are Brandt, Adeyemi and Kobel?
Despite the existing self-confidence, which is certainly also due to the fact that the last time Dortmund collected 22 of a possible 24 points in the first eight matches in the second half of the season was in the 2011/12 championship season, we expect a brutally difficult task for BVB, although there has been positive news recently in terms of personnel.
Julian Brandt returns from injury, as does regular goalkeeper Gregor Kobel. Adeyemi could also get his minutes as a joker after tearing his muscle fibre. With almost the full squad, the Black and Yellows can at least be expected to score, which is why the prediction for both teams to score in the second round between Bayern and Dortmund has found its way into our top betting table at high odds of 2.37.
Last matches of Dortmund:
19/03/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 1 1. FC Köln
12/03/2023 – Schalke 04 2 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
Champions League Final
08/03/2023 – Chelsea FC 2 – 0 Borussia Dortmund
04/03/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 2 – 1 RB Leipzig
25/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Bayern – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The term ‘classic’, which has been integrated into the German vernacular, is perfectly applicable to this pairing. Since the Bundesliga has been in existence, this clash has taken place 133 times – more than any other encounter. Bayern conceded 32 defeats, BVB as many as 65. On several occasions, the clubs fought a duel for the championship, similar to this season.
Particularly noteworthy is the record champion’s eight-match winning streak in front of a home crowd. The 2013/14 season was the last time the Black and Yellows were able to take something tangible away from the Allianz Arena in the Bundesliga.
The first leg in the current season was not for the faint-hearted. Until the 74th minute, the Munich team led 2:0 and had everything under control. Moukoko reduced the score to 1:2 before Tony Modeste scored at the final whistle to make it 2:2. The BVB officials could also live very well with a point win on Saturday evening.
Bayern – Dortmund tip
There are so many stories that the Bayern vs Dortmund classic has written or will write on Saturday night. The Thomas Tuchel personnel case puts the crown on this absolute top game once again. Can he inflict a bitter defeat on his former club and put his new club back on the path towards winning the title?
If we believe the betting odds before the match between Bayern and Dortmund, then this question must be answered in the affirmative. The Munich team is the clear favourite in this match, even though they have collected ten fewer points than BVB in the calendar year 2023. Admittedly, the prices in favour of the record champions are extremely low, so that the value content can be discussed.
In our eyes, it is nevertheless the most likely scenario that the current runners-up and serial champions will come out on top in front of their home crowd. As the most important arguments, we draw on the home advantage as well as the outstanding quality of being able to put their best face forward in important matches. Without any further additions, we therefore decide to bet on a home win before the classic Bayern vs Dortmund match. We play the top odds of 1.60 with five units at Bet3000.