Will Barca turn the corner in “El Clásico”?

Normally, the anticipation in Spain for “El Clásico” is always palpable and unbroken many days beforehand. At the moment, however, the situation is somewhat different, which is due on the one hand to the fact that Barcelona and Real Madrid – this prediction may be allowed – are not necessarily on an equal footing in sporting terms at the moment. On the other hand, the setting in which this duel between arch-rivals will take place on Wednesday evening is being hotly debated and criticised.

It is not only the format of the Super Copa, whose winner is determined by the two cup finalists and the two best teams from La Liga that did not play in the Copa del Rey final, that is causing controversy, but also the venue in full stadiums in Saudi Arabia. It is quite understandable that the accusation of the unnecessary commercialisation of football is being made.

With all the justified criticism, we are still looking forward to an explosive and hopefully also top-class semi-final between Barcelona and Real Madrid. The fact that the odds tend to swing in the direction of the royals is not really surprising given the recent impressions and the qualitative difference between the two squads. The capital club is rightly the favourite to reach the final. The final would then take place on Sunday evening against the winner of the match between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

To be a fan of FC Barcelona these days and months is truly no bed of roses. Financial problems, the departure of Lionel Messi, which was anything but quiet, and finally disappointing performances on a sporting level make the overall situation at the international club from Catalonia appear bleak. Even the signing of legendary player Xavi, which was acclaimed by the club’s own supporters, has not yet brought about a lasting turnaround.

Although the Blaugrana are averaging a respectable 1.79 points per game under the 133-time Spanish international, they have only won five of their eleven competitive matches in three different competitions. Add to that an avoidable exit in the Champions League group stage and just two wins from the past six La Liga matches, and Barca are currently only sixth, 17 (!) points behind arch-rivals Real Madrid.

Barca must improve by worlds

The Catalan metropolis has to bake smaller rolls. Perhaps it will help that the admittedly less important Super Copa is now on the agenda. However, the fact that the Xavi team has not been able to convince at all lately is not very hopeful. At the weekend, they only managed a 1-1 draw in Granada after a last-minute goal, and the cup match the week before against third division side Linares was only won 2-1 after a tough fight.

To make matters worse, the personnel situation continues to provide anything but optimal conditions. Although some players have returned from the infected list, important players such as Sergi Roberto, Eric Garcia, Martin Braithwaite, Pedri or newcomer Ferran Torres are missing.

On the other hand, Frenkie de Jong, Ansu Fati and Ronald Araujo are potential alternatives again after recovering from their illnesses, although we do not expect many players to be at 100% and therefore betting on the success of the Xavi team between Barcelona and Real Madrid is extremely risky for various reasons.

Predicted Barcelona line-up:
Ter Stegen; Dest, Pique, Lenglet, Alba; Gonzalez, Busquets, Gavi; Dembele, De Jong, Depay

Last matches played by Barcelona:

LaLiga
01/08 2022 – Granada 1 – 1 Barcelona

Copa del Rey
01/05 2022 – Linares Deportivo 1 – 2 Barcelona

LaLiga
01/02 2022 – Mallorca 0 – 1 Barcelona

12/21 2021 – Sevilla 1 – 1 Barcelona

12/18 2021 – Barcelona 3 – 2 Elche

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

The new calendar year 2022 started with a surprising setback for Real Madrid. In the small capital derby at Getafe, the Madrilenians lost 0:1 and thus conceded their first defeat on the national stage since the beginning of October.

Less than two weeks later, however, this defeat can already be seen as a slip-up, as coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team followed up with a 3-1 victory at third division side Alcoyano in the cup and a strong 4-1 win over Valencia in the league at the weekend. Given the performances on show, it is understandable that lower odds are being offered on the Galactics on Wednesday night between Barcelona and Real Madrid.

Real currently superior to Barca in all aspects

The fact that they know how to win the new Super Copa also speaks in favour of the royals. In the first edition with four teams in 2019, Real beat their city rivals Atletico in the final. The venue was also the King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. In total, it was the eleventh success in the Spanish equivalent of the German Supercup or the English Community Shield for the giants from the capital. Only Barcelona tops this tally with 13 title wins.

In addition to the far stronger constitution and the currently certainly higher quality player material, the most recent direct duels also speak a very clear language in favour of Ancelotti’s eleven. In La Liga, the current leaders have won four “Clásico” matches in a row, and the “white ballet” has also had the upper hand in the Super Copa three times in a row, most recently in the 2017 final, which was still played with a first and second leg.

In terms of personnel, the Italian former coach of FC Bayern can almost draw from the full squad. Only Gareth Bale and Mariano Diaz are injured, but they are not starting options anyway. Otherwise, Real can be expected to field their best line-up, which is one of the most important arguments when it comes to predicting the winner between Barcelona and Real Madrid.

Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Asensio, Benzema, Vinicius Jr

Last matches played by Real Madrid:

LaLiga
01/08 2022 – Real Madrid 4 – 1 Valencia

Copa del Rey
01/05 2022 – Alcoyano 1 – 3 Real Madrid

LaLiga
01/02 2022 – Getafe 1 – 0 Real Madrid

12/22 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 2 Real Madrid

12/19 2021 – Real Madrid 0 – 0 Cadiz

Barcelona – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

We have already hinted at the recent trends between the rivals. Real Madrid have won four in a row in the Spanish top flight, including the first leg of the current season, which they deservedly won 2-1 at the Camp Nou. The goal to tie the game only came in injury time.

Barca’s last win against their arch-enemy, meanwhile, dates back to 2019, but things have developed differently since then. Real are currently the measure of all things in Spain, while the Catalans, who are struggling on many levels, are almost lurching towards mediocrity.

Barcelona – Real Madrid Tip

On paper, the match between Barcelona and Real Madrid still holds a lot of explosive power. Nevertheless, it is not a typical “El Clásico” on Wednesday evening. On the one hand, because the rivals “only” meet in the Super Copa semi-finals and, on the other hand, because at the moment it feels like there are worlds between these two clubs.

Of course, the Blaugrana have the chance to pose problems for the La Liga leaders in 90 minutes (plus X), but there is currently more to be said for the betting odds on success for the royals between Barcelona and Real Madrid. The better form, the more confident and qualitatively somewhat stronger players as well as the recent performances in the direct duels are all valid arguments in favour of Real.

We have therefore decided to bet on a victory for Ancelotti’s team after regular time in the Barcelona vs. Real Madrid clash.

If you want to take a bit more risk and get higher odds, you can bet on the double result HT2/FT2. In case of success, the payout is three times the stake. A potential multiplier for a combination ticket is the progress of the Galactics. We do not believe that the Catalans will surprise us.