Will ‘El Clásico’ be the decisive match for the championship?

No other game in European top flight football is as electrifying as “El Clásico” in Spain. On Sunday evening it’s that time again. Barely three weeks after the last meeting in the Copa del Rey semi-final, which FC Barcelona surprisingly won in Madrid, it now comes to the direct duel in La Liga.

The preliminary decision in the race for the Spanish championship may already be made this weekend. The Catalans currently have a comfortable nine-point lead over the Royals.

This also means that, in the event of a home win, this cushion could grow to a virtually unassailable twelve points. In other words: If the Ancelotti team wants to defend last year’s title, betting on an away win between Barcelona and Real Madrid must pay off.

Just how difficult this undertaking will be can be seen by looking at how the season has gone so far in Spain’s top flight. Barca are still completely unbeaten at home and also have by far the best defence in La Liga.

The Madrilenians have not really covered themselves with glory away from home in recent weeks, but have at least managed to win the two most recent away games at the Camp Nou in league play. The first leg also went narrowly to the Galacticos. Nevertheless, before the “El Clásico” between Barcelona and Real Madrid, the prediction on the away victory brings the higher betting odds.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

For FC Barcelona’s loyal supporters, the span of time since their last championship must feel like an eternity. 2018/19 was the last time the Blue and Reds brought the title to the Catalan metropolis. Four years later, it could finally be that time again.

After almost exactly two thirds of the season, coach Xavi Hernandez’s team leads the table in La Liga by nine points. Because the world club only conceded ten points in the first 26 matchdays, it would be very surprising if the FCB were to let this success slip away in 2022/23. In order to dispel the last remaining doubts, a draw against their arch-rivals from Madrid on Sunday evening would actually be enough.

Barcelona’s defence remains the measure of all things

Looking at the odds of the best bookmakers before the tense “Clásico” between Barcelona and Real Madrid, it becomes clear that the home side are even favourites to win the match. No wonder, because the home record in the current season could hardly be better. Barca have ten wins and two draws after twelve home games. The last four matches at home have all been victorious.

The 26-time Spanish champions’ showpiece this season is undoubtedly their defence. German keeper Marc Andre ter Stegen has conceded a total of eight goals. In front of their own fans, meanwhile, they have conceded only one. In eleven of the twelve home games, the Blaugrana kept their clean sheet. In eight of the last ten La Liga games alone, they have kept a defensive clean sheet.

In eleven of the past 14 games at league level, a bet on a maximum of two goals in the course of the game would have gone through. Reason enough to also consider the odds for the under 2.5 in the contested hate duel Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Considering the strong defence and the starting position, we do not expect a wildly forward-playing home team, but once again a concentrated and wait-and-see defensive performance, which should further favour an under match.

Last Barcelona matches:

La Liga
13/03/2023 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 1 FC Barcelona

05/03/2023 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Valencia

Copa del Rey
03/03/2023 – Real Madrid 0 – 1 FC Barcelona

La Liga
27/02/2023 – Almeria 1 – 0 FC Barcelona

Europa League Final Stage
24/02/2023 – Manchester United 2 – 1 FC Barcelona

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

As a Real Madrid player or coach, it must always be your ambition to be the best nationally and internationally. While the royals are already back on track in the UEFA Champions League after advancing last week against Liverpool and now face Chelsea FC in the quarter-finals, defending their La Liga title has become a distant memory.

But “Los Blancos” have not given up yet. However, it also seems clear that the capital club must return from Catalonia on Sunday evening with three points in order to have any real chance of winning the championship. However, it is precisely this constellation that makes it so difficult, because coach Carlo Ancelotti’s team must find a good balance between a bold offensive and a stable defence. However, the Madrilenians must not allow themselves to be drawn into perpetual tactics.

Will Real flex their muscles again in a big match?

But since Real are more capable than almost any other team in European football of shaping important matches to their own liking and bringing their immense experience to bear in highlight matches, we would tend to refrain from predicting a home win for the upcoming clash between Barcelona and Real Madrid, but at the same time we would not place any bets on the three-way market in the direction of the white ballet.

Instead, the “El Clásico” odds on few goals are more interesting, because not many goals have been scored in the away games involving Karim Benzema and Co. in the recent past. In five of Real’s last six away games, they failed to score more than two goals. The royals have conceded just ten goals in 13 away games.

It is also exciting to note that in four of the last six away matches, Ancelotti’s side have actually been 0-0 at the break. If you want to bet on a goalless first half this time, given the importance of the clash and the quality balance, you can pick up attractive odds of 3.00 at the top between Barcelona and Real Madrid. In conjunction with this, it is also conceivable to bet on a second half with more goals. Both bets can also be placed at Happybet, for example.

Last matches of Real Madrid:

Champions League Final
16/03/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Liverpool FC

La Liga
11/03/2023 – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Espanyol

06/03/2023 – Real Betis 0 – 0 Real Madrid

Copa del Rey
03/03/2023 – Real Madrid 0 – 1 FC Barcelona

La Liga
26/02/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 1 Atletico Madrid

Barcelona – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H-balance

This is the fourth time the two hate rivals have faced each other this season. The first leg in La Liga went to Real Madrid with 2:1. In the Super Coppa final, on the other hand, FC Barcelona had the upper hand with a very commanding 3:1 victory.

The most recent direct encounter took place earlier this month in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg and ended 1-0 in favour of the Catalans, who defended their own goal for 90 minutes with a reduced squad and, with a bit of luck, put themselves in a good position for the second leg, which will take place at the Camp Nou in early April.

Meanwhile, although there have always been at least three goals in the last five league games between these rival teams, we would be cautious about betting on the over 2.5 again in light of past impressions.

Barcelona – Real Madrid Tip

The ‘Clásico’ will kick off on Sunday evening at 21:00. Despite the fourth edition in the 2022/23 season, the clash between the two arch-rivals from Barcelona and Madrid will not be a return to normality. Why should it? After all, this weekend could be the deciding factor in the La Liga title race. Only in the case of an away win could there be more excitement in the coming weeks.

However, we do not believe in such a success of the guests. Barca are still unbeaten at home and have won eleven out of twelve games at the Camp Nou. In general, the Blaugrana have by far the most stable defence in the league, having not conceded a goal in eight of their last ten matches. Even the Madrilenians, who have not always been convincing away from home lately, could cut their teeth on this in-form defence.

Our first approach is therefore to bet on the under 2.5 between Barcelona and Real Madrid. We believe in a low-scoring top-of-the-table match and, in addition to the defensive strength of the hosts, we also argue that Xavi’s team already narrowly prevailed 1-0 in the cup earlier this month. The Royals have to play to win, but coach Ancelotti is too experienced to let his team walk into an open knife.

Consequently, we can also well imagine that especially in the first 45 minutes not much will happen and more spectacle will be offered after the break. Barcelona vs. Real Madrid betting odds on 0-0 at half-time or a second round with more goals are therefore an additional option.

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