Barca on the way to their old strength?
Not only will the first four round of 16 ties in the UEFA Champions League be played this week, but the second-tier Europa League and Conference League also have their first competitive matches of the 2022 calendar year on the agenda. Two big-name clubs, who could well be expected in the last 16 of the top flight, will meet in a direct clash in the Europa League.
We are talking about FC Barcelona and Napoli. Judging by the odds, both renowned clubs are even among the favourites for the overall victory in this competition. It is all the more exciting and thrilling that this Spanish-Italian clash is already taking place in the intermediate round. Only one of the two teams will make it to the round of 16 after a first leg and a second leg match.
For the Catalans, the first leg in front of their home crowd will be all about setting the course for progression. The recent league performance at the Camp Nou against Atletico Madrid should give coach Xavi’s team courage and confidence.
However, the fact that the Neapolitans have not lost a single regular-season match since the turn of the year underlines how complicated the task will be against the Italian Scudetto contenders. The men from the foot of Vesuvius have also been more convincing on the international stage this season. In general, it is therefore difficult to predict the outcome of the match between Barcelona and Napoli.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
For many supporters, being an FC Barcelona fan has proved to be a real touchstone for much of the season so far. In the meantime, however, there is light at the end of the tunnel. In the last few weeks, the Catalans have been able to catch themselves more and more and improve from game to game. At the moment, it seems as if the team is better internalising the handwriting of its coach. In addition, the winter transfers have of course done a lot of good in terms of quality.
What the “new” Blaugrana is capable of became clear ten days ago when they won 4-2 at home against the reigning Spanish champions Atletico Madrid. Not only the result, but also the way in which the three-time club world champions performed delighted many experts and at the same time caused a certain euphoria and a lot of optimism in the Catalan metropolis.
Barca is in an ongoing process
The next setback came last weekend, however, when they only managed a 2-2 draw in the city derby against Espanyol Barcelona thanks to a last-minute goal from Luuk de Jong. If you exclude the two defeats after extra time in the Copa del Rey and in the Super Coppa, the Red and Blues have not lost any of their eleven matches after 90 minutes. The form curve is pointing upwards, which is why the lower odds on a home win between Barcelona and Napoli on Thursday evening are entirely justified.
Even more interesting than a potential bet on the first leg success of the Xavi team, however, is a recommendation that a goal or two will be scored, because Barca have always scored at least once in all their competitive matches since 4 December. In seven of the eleven matches played since then, Barca have scored two or more goals of their own. However, the current fourth-placed team in the Spanish La Liga has only managed to score nil on two occasions, which is why we tend to believe in a first leg with three or more goals.
The Blaugrana will still have to make do without a number of players. Samuel Umtiti, Ansu Fati, Sergi Roberto and Ronald Araujo are missing due to injury. Dani Alves was not nominated for the Europa League. The injured Lenglet and Depay are also question marks. However, Aubameyang could make his Barcelona debut from the start. The disgraced Dembelé would also be an option again, in order to be able to rotate in view of the increasing load.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
Ter Stegen: Dest, Piqué, Araújo, Alba; Gavi, Busquets, Pedri; Traoré, Aubameyang, Dembélé
Last matches played by Barcelona:
LaLiga
02/13 2022 – Espanyol 2 – 2 Barcelona
02/06 2022 – Barcelona 4 – 2 Atletico Madrid
01/23 2022 – Deportivo Alaves 0 – 1 Barcelona
Copa del Rey
01/20 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 3 – 2 Barcelona
Super Cup
01/12 2022 – Barcelona 2 – 3 Real Madrid
Napoli – Statistics & current form
Napoli can still have legitimate hopes of winning the Serie A title. After the 1-1 draw against Inter Milan at the weekend, the Neapolitans are just two points behind new leaders AC Milan. Before important matches at national level in the coming weeks in Cagliari, at Lazio Rome or against Milan in the San Siro, the team of coach Luciano Spalletti wants to make a splash on the European stage first.
Certainly, the team from the west coast of Italy would have preferred a slightly less prominent opponent for the intermediate round, but the sky-blue-and-white failed to finish first in the group stage. Due to the lost direct comparison, Napoli had to settle for second place behind the surprisingly strong Russians of Spartak Moscow. Ten points were recorded in six matches.
Napoli very vulnerable defensively at international level
The defence, however, proved to be particularly vulnerable, conceding ten goals in the aforementioned six games. Only in the 3-0 home win against Legia Warsaw did the Partenopei keep their clean sheet. In four of the other five Europa League preliminary round matches, however, they always conceded at least two goals. In all six games, three or more goals were scored, which can definitely be used as an argument to justify a prediction of over 2.5 on Thursday between Barcelona and Napoli.
Another factor not to be underestimated is the fact that Napoli are in strong form, having not left the pitch as losers in Serie A six times in a row and consistently performing well away from home throughout the season. Eight wins, three draws and only one defeat away from home underline this thesis. The supposed outsiders therefore do not need to hide and will certainly do their utmost not to lose the first leg. The relaxed personnel situation will help. Only Lozano’s and Politano’s appearances are in doubt.
Predicted line-up of Napoli:
Ospina; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Koulibaly, Mário Rui; Zambo Anguissa, Fabián Ruiz; Elmas, Zieliński, Insigne; Osimhen
Last matches played by Napoli:
Serie A
02/12 2022 – SSC Napoli 1 – 1 Inter Milan
02/06 2022 – Venice 0 – 2 SSC Napoli
01/23 2022 – SSC Napoli 4 – 1 Salernitana
01/17 2022 – Bologna 0 – 2 SSC Napoli
Coppa Italia
01/13 2022 – SSC Napoli 2 – 5 AC Florence
Barcelona – Napoli Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
2019/20 the two teams still faced each other in the last 16 of the Champions League. After a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Italy, Barca prevailed 3-1 in the second leg in front of their home crowd to advance to the next round. To date, these were the only two direct duels between these clubs at competitive level. Two friendlies in 2019 also ended in victories for the Catalans (4-0 and 2-1). In three of the four encounters, at least three goals were scored.
Barcelona – Napoli tip
The Europa League can’t get much better than this on Thursday evening at the Camp Nou. There it comes to the clash between Barcelona and Napoli in the intermediate round, i.e. in the qualifying round for the round of 16. According to the betting odds, everything is open after the first and second legs. The Catalans have a slight advantage in terms of progressing, although they should already set the course for this in the first leg.
From the Blaugrana’s point of view, the rising form curve of the last few weeks in connection with the transfers made in the winter, which have improved the team’s quality, especially offensively, gives them hope. In general, there has not been a lack of goals scored lately. Instead, the defence has not been stable enough time and time again.
The visitors from the foot of Vesuvius have also had enormous problems working against the ball so far this Europa League season. In six group games against teams like Legia Warsaw, Spartak Moscow and Leicester, they have conceded ten goals. In four of those games, two or more goals were conceded. The same is likely to happen on Thursday evening in the football temple of the multiple European Cup winners.
Although this is the first leg in which the teams traditionally do not want to take many risks, we believe that betting on the over 2.5 between Barcelona and Napoli is a promising value.
