Will the Nerazzurri keep up the fight at Camp Nou?
With only seven points out of a possible 18, FC Barcelona failed to reach the last 16 in the Champions League preliminary round a year ago. Accordingly, the proud Catalan club was eager to make amends in the new season. After the first three group matches, however, the Blaugrana once again have only three points in their account.
Despite good opportunities, the Catalans failed to score on away goals in both Munich (0:2) and Milan (0:1). A response in the crucial second leg would be correspondingly important. At least the betting companies see the Blaugrana as the clear favourites when the odds are leaning towards a home win for Barcelona against Inter Milan.
However, Inter Milan have not conceded another goal in the top flight since their 2-0 home defeat to Bayern. The starting position for the Nerazzurri is simple: a draw at Camp Nou and a win over Viktoria Pilsen at home to secure a place in the last 16.
We expect the Biscione to be correspondingly defensive at Camp Nou. Moreover, it is more than just a common cliché that Italian teams can hold on to a 0-0 draw when in doubt.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
FC Barcelona is one of the most successful clubs in Europe, having won 26 national championships, 31 Copa del Rey titles overall and five Champions League titles. It was therefore all the more upsetting for those responsible that in the 2021/22 season they were not only unable to get past Real Madrid in the championship, but also had to accept so many low blows internationally.
The elimination in the Champions League group stage was followed by the memorable quarter-final exit against the eventual overall winners Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League, where the Blaugrana were among the absolute top favourites.
22 out of a possible 24 points in La Liga
Although the Catalans did not get off to the best possible start in the goalless draw against Rayo Vallecano on the first matchday of La Liga. However, Xavi’s team went on to win the next seven league games, scoring 20 goals to 1, toppling Real Madrid from first place.
The current week is accordingly groundbreaking, with the Clásico against the Blancos on Sunday of all days. And the fact that Xavi has to do without four injured defenders in the midst of these English weeks is correspondingly inconvenient.
Two lost games in a row in the Champions League
As good as things are going for the Blaugrana at national level, the results in the top flight are once again disappointing, with two defeats in a row against Bayern (0:2) and Inter (0:1). If Barca want to keep their chances of reaching the last 16 alive, they must now win at home in the second leg.
With a view to their home record – the Catalans have lost only three of their last 44 home games in the Champions League (36 wins, five draws) – Barca are the clear favourites going into the second leg.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
ter Stegen – Alonso – García – Piqué – Roberto – Pedri – Busquets – Gavi – Raphinha – Dembélé – Lewandowski
Last matches played by Barcelona:
La Liga
10/10/2022 – FC Barcelona 1 – 0 Celta Vigo
Champions League Grp. C
05/10/2022 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 FC Barcelona
La Liga
02/10/2022 – Mallorca 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
17/09/2022 – FC Barcelona 3 – 0 Elche
Champions League Grp. C
14/09/2022 – Bayern Munich 2 – 0 FC Barcelona
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Inter Milan is also one of the big European clubs. The Nerazzurri have won the Scudetto 19 times at national level – most recently in 2021 – and have recorded a total of three overall victories in the Champions League.
However, since the last time they won the trophy in the summer of 2010, the Biscione have not been able to win much in the top flight. In the last six appearances, four of them ended in the group stage. The other two times they failed to make it past the round of 16.
1:0 first leg win despite “expected goals” value of 0.18
Accordingly, the Nerazzurri were considered slight underdogs to advance to the knockout stage in a tough Group C featuring heavyweights Bayern and Barcelona. While they did justice to this role against Munich on the first matchday (0:2), Simone Inzaghi’s team scored a small coup last week with a 1:0 home victory over the Blaugrana.
Just 28% possession and five shots taken were enough for the Beneamata to score, although the expected goals figure showed a value of just 0.18 – the lowest of any team to record a win in the Champions League in the 2022/23 season.
A point win at Camp Nou would be a big step towards the round of 16
Although the Lombards were also successful in their dress rehearsal at the weekend with a 2-1 win in Sassuolo. Overall, the Nerazzurri are not doing too well in Serie A, having already lost four of their first nine games. All the more reason for the Lombards to build up their self-confidence in the top flight.
The plan is simple: somehow keep the score level at the back to secure a win in the direct comparison with a draw, which would be a huge step towards the last 16. We expect the Biscione to be correspondingly defensive, which is why betting on less than 2.5 goals is very popular for Barcelona against Inter Milan.
Predicted Inter Milan line-up:
Onana – Dimarco – Bastoni – de Vrij – Skriniar – Darmian – Mkhitaryan – Calhanoglu – Barella – Correa – Martínez
Last matches played by Inter Milan:
Serie A
08/10/2022 – Sassuolo 1 – 2 Inter Milan
Champions League Grp. C
05/10/2022 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 FC Barcelona
Series A
01/10/2022 – Inter Milan 1 – 2 AS Roma
18/09/2022 – Udinese 3 – 1 Inter Milan
Champions League Grp. C
13/09/2022 – Viktoria Pilsen 0 – 2 Inter Milan
Barcelona – Inter Milan Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Head to head: 8 – 4 – 3
There have already been 15 competitive matches between the two teams and with eight wins Barca clearly lead the direct comparison. Last Tuesday’s 1-0 defeat at the San Siro was the third defeat for the Blaugrana against the Nerazzurri. However, the last five home games against the Lombards have all been won at Camp Nou.
Barcelona – Inter Milan Tip
Of course, the prediction for Barcelona against Inter Milan goes in the direction of the home-strong Catalans, who would be facing another first-round exit in the top flight without a home win. However, the Xavi team has struggled to score goals in recent games (only two goals in the three competitive games after the international break) and, with several absences, must also keep an eye on the load management, because the all-important Clásico against Real is on the agenda on Sunday.
The Catalans must not be allowed to run into the open knife, which is why the Xavi eleven faces a real test at home against the defensively strong Nerazzurri. Although a home win is likely overall, it should not be too much of a scoreline in Camp Camp. However, it should not be too rich in goals at Camp Nou.
