Will Barca extend their lead at the top of the standings?
Things are going very well for FC Barcelona these days. First they took over the sole top spot in La Liga, before also winning the prestigious Super Cup final against Real Madrid in a very impressive manner last weekend. In view of the concentrated and footballing performances, the next home task seems to be a mere formality.
On Sunday, the Catalans will face a relegation contender in the 18th matchday in the Spanish top flight, who are also finding it extremely difficult to score goals this season. Consequently, before the clash between Barcelona and Getafe, the bet on a “nil” victory for the home side is too weak in our eyes for us to see any value in it.
It is also clear, however, that the Blaugrana are the heavy favourites going into this game, given their previous home results. It is not for nothing that Marc Andre ter Stegen has conceded only one goal in the Spanish top club’s 2022/23 La Liga home games.
Despite the absence of the suspended Robert Lewandowski, we think it is unlikely that the leaders will struggle for long stretches of the match against the visitors, who are clearly inferior in terms of quality. Between Barcelona and Getafe, the prediction of two winning halves, or at least halves with at least one goal each, for the Xavi eleven could therefore be a profitable option.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
With an impressive record of 13 wins, two draws and only one defeat after 16 matchdays, FC Barcelona are currently the measure of all things in the Spanish top flight. They are three points ahead of arch-rivals Real Madrid.
The blue-reds have picked up 19 of a possible 21 points in the last seven La Liga matchdays. Added to this was the aforementioned victory in the Super Copa in Saudi Arabia as well as the easy progression to the Copa del Rey quarter-finals.
Barca has developed into a defensive monster nationally
The defensive performance of Xavi’s side deserves special mention, as they have in fact conceded only six goals all season and, as a result, are by far the best defence in Spain’s top football league. Only one of these six goals was conceded in the eight matches in front of a home crowd. Significantly, this was only a penalty goal by Joselu in the derby against Espanyol Barcelona.
Considering the fact that only in two of the last matches there was a clean sheet for the back line around keeper Marc Andre ter Stegen, we are cautious about playing the odds on another “to nil” victory between Barcelona and Getafe. Instead, we can well imagine that the offensive will once again present itself in a scoring mood.
With Lewandowski and Ferran Torres gone, will they lack punch?
Barca scored at least two goals in five of the eight home games mentioned above. In total, there were even 18 of them, i.e. more than two goals on average per home game. Apart from that, there is virtually no discrepancy between the first and second halves. 17 goals in the first 45 minutes compared to 18 goals after the break, which is a good argument to take both periods into account in the forecast before the Barcelona vs Getafe match.
Robert Lewandowski continues to serve his La Liga red suspension, Ferran Torres is also missing and Memphis Depay was released to Atletico Madrid on Friday. Otherwise, coach Xavi has almost all his regulars at his disposal. Compared to the surprisingly strong starting eleven from last week’s cup match in Ceuta (5:0), some changes are nevertheless to be expected.
Projected line-up of Barcelona:
Ter Stegen; Araujo, Kounde, Christensen, Balde; F de Jong, Busquets, Pedri; Dembele, Fati, Gavi
Last matches played by Barcelona:
Copa del Rey
20/01/2023 – AD Ceuta FC 0 – 5 FC Barcelona
Super Cup
16/01/2023 – Real Madrid 1 – 3 FC Barcelona
13/01/2023 – Real Betis (2)2 – 2(4) FC Barcelona
La Liga
09/01/2023 – Atletico Madrid 0 – 1 FC Barcelona
Copa del Rey
05/01/2023 – CF Intercity 3 – 4 FC Barcelona
Getafe – Statistics & current form
Getafe Club de Fútbol seem to have a regular subscription to 15th place in La Liga. The team from the Madrid suburbs not only finished in 15th place in the final table in the last two seasons, but are also in that position again in the Spanish top flight. So if they manage to stay in the relegation zone again, the former UEFA Cup participants would certainly be satisfied.
At the moment, the lead over the first relegation place is just one point. Both league games in the calendar year 2023 were lost. The same applies to the cup match against the second-division team from Levante. The team’s form is therefore anything but good, especially since coach Quique Sanchez Flores’ team conceded a total of seven goals in the three matches after the turn of the year.
This is problematic because the Azulones hardly score any goals of their own. So far this season, Getafe have scored just 16 goals in the Spanish top flight. The Madrid side have only scored twice in one away game. In a league comparison, there are only four teams that have scored less often, which highlights the qualitative differences and the contrast in terms of performance. Quite rightly, the odds between Barcelona and Getafe are clearly in favour of the home side.
Predicted line-up of Getafe:
Soria; Iglesias, Dakonam, Duarte, Alderete, Portu; Alena, Milla, Algobia; Mayoral, Unal
Last matches played by Getafe:
La Liga
15/01/2023 – Getafe 1 – 2 Espanyol
09/01/2023 – Sevilla FC 2 – 1 Getafe
Copa del Rey
04/01/2023 – Levante 3 – 2 Getafe
La Liga
30/12/2022 – Getafe 2 – 0 Mallorca
Copa del Rey
21/12/2022 – CD Diocesano 0 – 2 Getafe
Barcelona – Getafe Direct comparison / H2H balance
The head-to-head record of course also speaks a very clear language in favour of the multiple Spanish champions. 24 of the 34 previous first league encounters went to Barca. The teams have drawn seven times and the underdog has only won three of them.
In the last seven home games alone, the Blaugrana have scored 23 goals against the Azulones, an average of more than three per game. Incidentally, the Catalans have never lost at home to their upcoming opponents from Madrid. In the previous season, they won by a narrow 2:1, and before that they won by a more than clear 5:2.
Barcelona – Getafe Tip
The leaders do the honours against a relegation candidate on Sunday. The starting position before the match between Barcelona and Getafe could not be much clearer. The betting odds underline this assessment. At the top, only 1.19 is offered on the three-way market, which corresponds to a probability of 83%.
For us, the only question is how we can push our bet on the Xavi team to get reasonably attractive odds. Betting on the handicap is not a particularly good option in our eyes. We would also not risk a bet on the “to nil” despite considerable defensive statistics in front of a home crowd.
Instead, between Barcelona and Getafe, we would bet that the Barca attack, which will once again be without Robert Lewandowski, will score at least one goal in both halves.
