Marcelino hosts his former club with Bilbao

After the quarter-final matches in the Spanish King’s Cup were played last week, the semi-finals are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. However, the finalists will be determined in first and second legs, so only part one is on the agenda. On Thursday evening, Athletic Bilbao and Valencia will clash in the Basque Country.

The second semi-final, the first leg of which will be played on Wednesday, will be contested by Rayo Vallecano and Betis Sevilla. The top teams in Spanish football have already had to pull out of the tournament and the chances for an underdog to win the title are correspondingly high. Bilbao in particular could present themselves as “giant killers”, having recently eliminated Real Madrid at home after Barcelona. Accordingly, Athletic Bilbao is considered the clear favourite against Valencia in the first leg according to the current odds.

In the Spanish King’s Cup, the first leg in the battle for a place in the final will be played on Thursday. In American football, on the other hand, the absolute highlight is on the agenda this Sunday.

Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form

If you had to describe Athletic Bilbao in just one word, two terms would be absolutely apt. “Tradition-conscious” fits the Basques like a glove, but in recent years the team has also earned the title of “cup specialist”. This season, the Basques could reach the Copa del Rey final for the third time in a row. The dream of winning the title for the 25th time was recently dashed against local rivals Real Sociedad de San Sebastian and FC Barcelona.

Seven games in 2022 – six wins

The team has played itself into a frenzy, especially in recent weeks. In the still young year of 2022, Athletic Bilbao have played seven competitive matches so far and have left the field as winners six times. This statistic is particularly impressive when you look at their rivals so far. The Basques have already defeated Real Madrid, FC Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in 2022.

Last week’s narrow 1-0 win over Real Madrid was also revenge for their only defeat in 2022, when Marcelino’s team lost 2-0 to the royals in the Supercoppa final. All in all, Athletic Bilbao can be described as extremely fit. Despite the fact that the Basques have conceded four of their five defeats of the 2021/22 season at home, their role as favourites on Thursday is justified.

Goal festivals are rare

On Monday evening Athletic Bilbao won 2-1 at home against Espanyol Barcelona and climbed to eighth position in the table. Accordingly, the return to Europe is not only possible via the cup, but also in the national championship the Basques are in touch with Europe.

It is striking that relatively few goals are scored in matches with Bilbao. In 23 league games so far, Bilbao have scored just as often and conceded only 18 goals. On average, this results in less than two goals per game. Accordingly, the forecast for Athletic Bilbao against Valencia seems interesting at under 2.5 but also under 1.5.

Predicted line-up of Athletic Bilbao:
Agirrezebala – Berchiche, Martinez, Alvarez, de Marcos – Muniain, Garcia, Vesga, Berenguer – I. Williams, Villalibre

Last matches played by Athletic Bilbao:

LaLiga
02/07 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 2 – 1 Espanyol

Copa del Rey
02/03 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 0 Real Madrid

LaLiga
01/23 2022 – Rayo Vallecano 0 – 1 Athletic Bilbao

Copa del Rey
01/20 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 3 – 2 Barcelona

Super Cup
01/16 2022 – Athletic Bilbao 0 – 2 Real Madrid

Valencia – Statistics & current form

A cup win coupled with a fixed return to Europe would be hugely important for the bats from Valencia. The club has been in chaos for many years and supporters’ criticism of owner Peter Lim is mounting. In December, several thousand fans held a protest march against the boss. The financial difficulties are enormous and time and again Valencia has to part with stars.

Five league games without a win

While Athletic Bilbao can justifiably be said to be in top form, that is not the case with Valencia. Pepe Bordalas’ side last won a league game on 20 December. After that, there were five more games in which Valencia remained winless (two draws, three defeats). This negative run is somewhat put into perspective by the fact that the last four games were against a top-six team (Real Madrid, Sevilla, Atletico Madrid, Real Sociedad).

With tenth place in the table, the train to Europe has not yet left the station, but an improvement in performance is absolutely necessary. With Ilaix Moriba (RB Leipzig) and Bryan Gil (Tottenham), two big talents were loaned to Valencia in the winter to increase the competition.

Easy draw in the cup

The bats have recently celebrated successes exclusively in cup competitions. However, these should not be rated too highly, because in contrast to the host from the Basque Country, the way to the preliminary round reads like a walk in the park. Cadiz CF was the only first division team (18th place) that Valencia had to eliminate.

For the 2018/19 cup winners to dream of the final again, they will definitely have to improve their performance. Due to the far better results at home, the Bordalas eleven will take very few risks on Thursday and try to keep the goalless draw as long as possible. The final should then be fixed at the Mestalla, so a tip on few goals is obvious for Athletic Bilbao against Valencia.

Predicted line-up of Valencia:
Domenech – Gaya, Cömert, Diakhaby, Correira – Gil, Guillamon, Soler, Foulqouier – Guedes, Duro

Last matches played by Valencia:

LaLiga
02/06 2022 – Valencia 0 – 0 San Sebastian

Copa del Rey
02/02 2022 – Valencia 2 – 1 Cadiz

LaLiga
01/22 2022 – Atletico Madrid 3 – 2 Valencia

01/19 2022 – Valencia 1 – 1 Sevilla

Copa del Rey
01/16 2022 – Atletico Baleares 0 – 1 Valencia

Athletic Bilbao – Valencia Direct comparison / H2H record

A duel of equals will this cup semi-final according to the recent duels in the Spanish league. In the last three games between Athletic Bilbao and Valencia, the tip on the points division was the right choice in each case. On Thursday, betting odds of around 3.50 are offered at the San Mames.

In the domestic championship, the teams faced each other at the Mestalla Stadium at the end of September. The bats from Valencia secured a lucky draw in front of their home crowd with a last minute goal.

Athletic Bilbao – Valencia Tip

This semi-final will be a special affair for the Basque head coach. Marcelino was in charge at the bats from July 2017 to September 2019 and led the club to a cup win, among other achievements, before he was forced to leave in a surprise move. It can be assumed that he still has a score to settle with his former employer. It would be a great satisfaction to see the title dream come to an end.

With the final in sight, both teams will certainly be looking to avoid falling behind. Safety is paramount and that is the reason for our prediction for Athletic Bilbao against Valencia. A maximum of one goal would not be a surprise under these conditions; betting odds of just under 3.00 for the under 1.5 are tempting, which represent a good attempt with a moderate four-unit stake.