Will the Villians send the Hornets deeper into crisis?
Saturday, 4pm – there’s another packed programme to watch in the English Premier League this weekend. The 26th matchday is on the agenda and six games will kick off simultaneously in the afternoon. In Birmingham it comes to the clash between Aston Villa and Watford.
A duel that is certainly not one of the top duels this weekend, as both teams have fallen short of expectations this season. The Villians could at least catch themselves a bit, while the lights are slowly but surely going out for the Hornets. After eleven games without a win, it will take a lot of imagination for them to manage to stay in the league. The visitors also count as clear underdogs in Birmingham and betting odds of around 1.60 are offered for the home side between Aston Villa and Watford.
The Villians have definitely taken a step forward under Steven Gerrard, but too rarely reward themselves for passable performances. Against the weak promoted side, however, a win is a must.
Aston Villa – Statistics & current form
The Liverpool legend is now expected to prove his coaching skills in his homeland after enjoying great success with Glasgow Rangers. Gerrard has now been with Aston Villa for 13 competitive games, looking at a slightly negative 5-2-6 record. Nevertheless, he has freed the Villians from the worst of the relegation worries and can already see the rest of the season as preparation for the coming season. After the good past season, Birmingham’s ambitions were definitely towards Europe.
Scored in all home games
The home game against the Hornets will be Aston Villa’s twelfth game in front of a home crowd this season. The Villians are the only team apart from Manchester United and West Ham to have a 100 per cent record so far, having scored at least one goal in every home game. In fact, the last time the Villians scored at least one goal in a home game was in 2007/08. At that time, there were 16 home games in a row with a goal.
Villa Park is a guarantee for goals in 2021/22 anyway, with an average of 3.55 goals per home match for the Villians. One reason for this is the weakening defence, with Emiliano Martinez having to make 18 saves in the last eight home games alone. This compares to just 17 goals conceded in 17 league home games previously.
Coutinho on fire
With Lucas Digne and especially Philippe Coutinho, Aston Villa were able to land two transfer hotshots in January. Brazilian Coutinho is shining under his former teammate and has as many scorer points in four games on his England return. Almost all of the attacking play goes through him and accordingly, betting on another Coutinho goal at Aston Villa against Watford makes sense. Especially since odds of over 3.00 are offered for this bet.
Predicted Aston Villa line-up:
Martinez – Digne, Mings, Chambers, Cash – Ramsey, Douglas Luiz, McGinn – Coutinho, Watkins, Buendia
Last matches played by Aston Villa:
Premier League
02/13 2022 – Newcastle United 1 – 0 Aston Villa
02/09 2022 – Aston Villa 3 – 3 Leeds
Club Friendlies
02/05 2022 – Aston Villa 3 – 1 Molde
Premier League
01/22 2022 – Everton 0 – 1 Aston Villa
01/15 2022 – Aston Villa 2 – 2 Manchester United
Watford – Statistics & current form
The Villians definitely showed an upswing after the change of coach, but this is not the case with the Hornets. Watford now have a third different coach on the bench. Some fans will wonder whether the early sacking of promotion-winning coach Xisco Munoz was actually the right decision. The bare numbers of his successors are frightening.
Still without a goal under Hodgson
Leicester’s championship hero Claudio Ranieri has failed to bring back success or stabilise the defence. Eleven of his 13 Premier League games were lost. Roy Hodgson was brought back from coaching retirement by Watford. With ultra-defensive football and fast switching play, the hope was for a turnaround. However, there is currently no sign of improvement, as Watford have again failed to score in their first three games (one draw, two defeats).
On Saturday afternoon, the 74-year-old could become only the fourth coach in PL history whose side have gone without a goal of their own in their first four games after taking over. The last coach to suffer that fate was his predecessor at Crystal Palace, Frank de Boer. Although the Villians are currently defensively fragile, the Hornets’ attacking play is so ponderous that the prediction for Aston Villa against Watford is that neither team will score.
No long range goal
Another major shortcoming is that the game is very one-dimensional and, accordingly, easily predictable. The element of surprise is completely missing, which is also noticeable in the fact that the Hornets are the only Premier League team not to have scored a long-range goal (outside the 16) this season.
With a six-point gap between them and the bottom of the table, the pressure is mounting. Watford are without a win in eleven league games and have picked up just two meagre points during this period. These are the numbers of a relegated team, a turnaround is currently not in sight.
Predicted line-up of Watford:
Foster – Kamara, Samir, Cathcart, Femenia – Cleverley, Sissoko, Kayembe, Kucka – Dennis, King
Last matches played by Watford:
Premier League
02/12 2022 – Watford 0 – 2 Brighton
02/08 2022 – West Ham 1 – 0 Watford
02/05 2022 – Burnley 0 – 0 Watford
01/21 2022 – Watford 0 – 3 Norwich
01/15 2022 – Newcastle United 1 – 1 Watford
Aston Villa – Watford Direct comparison / H2H record
The last time the Hornets from Watford won at Villa Park was in November 2015. It was the only away win for the London side in their last nine visiting appearances in Birmingham. The Villians are well ahead in the head-to-head with a 6-2-1 record. However, Watford have won four of their last five Premier League games against the Villians. The first duel of the season took place on matchday one, which the promoted side eventually won 3-2 after leading 3-0.
Aston Villa – Watford Tip
Ten points clear of the first relegation place is a reassuring cushion, although this should by no means be the claim for the Gerrard eleven. Nevertheless, the hosts can play relatively free, while the noose around Watford’s neck is getting tighter and tighter. Given the negative run of the visitors, betting on a home win for Aston Villa against Watford is obvious.
Watford have not been getting it together in recent weeks and whether Roy Hodgson is really the right coach for the available player material must be doubted. The physically robust players in the centre and the fast switchers needed for Hodgson’s defensive style of play are de facto non-existent.
The home side will dictate the game from the start and with the individual quality of a Coutinho, Watkins or Buendia, goals should only be a matter of time. That’s why we not only recommend betting on the home win at reasonable odds for Aston Villa against Watford, but also predicting the handicap win.
