Will Haaland decide the top match in Group C?

Ajax Amsterdam and Borussia Dortmund have realistic hopes of reaching the UEFA Champions League final this season. At least, if history is anything to go by. In both seasons in the top flight in which these two clubs faced each other in direct duels, one of the teams later reached the final. In 2012/13 it was BVB, in 1995/96 Ajax.

Admittedly, the 2021/22 clubs are – purely intuitively – not among the top favourites for the trophy, but on Tuesday evening we can look forward to a spectacular match between two teams that have recently been able to build up a lot of self-confidence at national level and are known for showing courageous attacking football. Consequently, the odds on many goals between Ajax Amsterdam and Dortmund are relatively low.

Additional explosiveness arises when you look at the table constellation in Group C. The duel between Holland and Germany is at the same time a match between the two countries. The clash between Holland and Germany is also the absolute top match between two teams that started with maximum points.

Before the clash between Ajax Amsterdam and Dortmund, it is therefore safe to predict that the winner of this clash can virtually already plan for the round of 16. In addition, the group victory beckons, which would be anything but unimportant against the backdrop of a possibly somewhat “easier” opponent in the round of the last 16.

Ajax Amsterdam – Statistics & current form

The 1995/1996 season, already mentioned in the introduction, was the last time Ajax Amsterdam reached the final of Europe’s premier club competition. Under the management of Louis van Gaal, the Dutch then lost the thrilling title match against Juventus narrowly on penalties. On the way there, the white and red team celebrated three victories in the first three games of the competition. The “sons of God” never managed to do exactly that again in the following 30 years.

This long dry spell could come to an end on Tuesday evening, as the reigning national champions again started the Champions League group stage with two victories in the current season. While the 5:1 win at Sporting Lisbon was a real demonstration of their own strength, two goals in the 2:0 win at home against Besiktas were enough to secure an extremely comfortable three-goal win.

Will the defence be really challenged for the first time against Haaland and Co.

Generally, coach Erik ten Hag’s team has played a very strong round so far. This is evident not least in the fact that they have won seven out of nine games in the domestic league. The goal difference of 32:2 also speaks volumes and characterises the approach of the courageously forward-playing young team from Amsterdam quite well. However, the Godenzonen are not immune to lapses either, which was underlined by the 0:1 defeat against Utrecht before the international break.

In general, a consistent assessment of the performances so far is necessary, because with all due respect for the footballing and spectacular performances, the first real yardstick awaits on Tuesday evening with BVB. Despite the many good results, the home advantage in the last group game of the first leg and the very self-confident team, the odds for a home win between Ajax Amsterdam and Dortmund are too low for us. We would not necessarily call the white and red team the clear favourites.

Coach ten Hag, who has been linked with top clubs in England and Germany in the past, will have to do without the injured Klaiber and Stekelenburg. Instead, Sebastien Haller will definitely be part of the team. The ex-Frankfurt player is the competition’s top scorer so far, having scored five goals on the first two matchdays.

Predicted line-up of Ajax Amsterdam:
Pasveer; Mazraoui, Timber, Martinez, Blind; Gravenberch, Alvarez; Antony, Berghuis, Tadic; Haller

Last matches played by Ajax Amsterdam:

Dortmund – Statistics & current form

He’s back! Erling Haaland celebrated his comeback last weekend in Dortmund’s 3-1 home win against Mainz and immediately scored a brace again. For BVB supporters, the few weeks without their star striker probably seemed like an eternity. The fact is that with Haaland, the Black and Yellows have an attack that can be a threat to any defence in Europe. So, of course, does Ajax Amsterdam.

Like their Dutch opponents, coach Marco Rose’s team started the group stage with two wins. Although the victories in Istanbul against Besiktas (2:1) and at home against Sporting Lisbon (1:0) were not quite as clear-cut, Borussia can still speak of a more than successful start to the international season. Since they have also won five of their last six matches in the Bundesliga, BVB can be said to be in really good form.

Does Dortmund’s clean sheet allergy break out again?

Apart from that, there are other arguments that suggest a prediction in the visitors’ direction between Ajax Amsterdam and Dortmund. For example, the Westphalians have won four of their last five away games in the Champions League; moreover, there have also been victories in each of the two most recent trips to Holland. The last defeat in the land of the tulips dates back to 2002. A good omen for Tuesday?

In almost all of Rose’s matches so far this season, both teams have scored at least one goal (nine out of twelve). They have also conceded at least one goal in seven of the nine matches they have won. A combined bet of the double chance X2 & both sides scoring promises an attractive value.

Due to injuries, Marco Rose still has to do without one or the other important player. Coulibaly, Morey and Zagadou have been missing for a long time. In addition, Guerreiro and Moukoko are currently absent. Dahoud and Reyna will probably not be able to play on Tuesday either. On the other hand, as mentioned above, Erling Haaland is back in the starting line-up. The Norwegian could score his tenth goal in his tenth away game in the top flight.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:
Kobel; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Schulz; Bellingham, Witsel; Reus, Brandt, Hazard; Haaland

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Ajax Amsterdam – Dortmund Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

In 1995/96 and 2012/13, the two clubs faced each other in the Champions League in the first and second legs. Almost ten years ago, BVB prevailed twice (4:1, 1:0) and later reached the final, which was lost to FC Bayern in London. Well over 20 years ago, there were two Dutch victories in the quarter-finals.

However, the fact that the 2.5 goal mark was only broken in one of the four meetings has no relevance for the upcoming clash in the Johan Cruijff ArenA – the matches are too long in the past and the starting position in the current match year is too different.

Ajax Amsterdam – Dortmund Tip

Many football fans, not only in the Netherlands and Germany, are eagerly awaiting the top match of Group C in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday evening. Ajax Amsterdam will meet Dortmund and, according to the betting odds, have the slightly better chances of winning. This assessment is primarily based on the impressions of the two strong performances against Besiktas (2:0) and Sporting Lisbon (5:0) on the first two match days.

In addition, the Godenzonen are also in great shape at national level, leading the Eredivisie standings and conceding only two goals in nine games this season. The big BUT, however, relates to the fact that the clash against BVB will probably be the first real test of the current season.

For their part, the Black and Yellows have also started the group stage with two wins, are on four wins from their last five away matches in the top flight and, what’s more, have not lost in Holland since 2002. Coupled with the Haaland return, the Bundesliga side are actually somewhat underrated by the bookies in our eyes.

Our first choice is therefore to place a bet on the visitors picking up at least a point before the match between Ajax Amsterdam and Dortmund. In order to push the corresponding top odds a little higher without any major risk, it is also possible to play the “Both score” market.