Do the Danes make better use of their superiority this time?
Although we are only in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League, the upcoming second legs already have a significant character. Those teams that make it into the third qualifying round will definitely already have their starting place in the Conference League group stage secured, even if there is no further progress in the top flight as well as the Europa League.
There is still tension in some pairings, including between AEK Larnaca and Midtjylland. Lower odds of 1.48 on the Danish runners-up to progress underline the favourites’ role of the visitors on the one hand and the higher individual quality of coach Bo Henriksen’s team on the other, who could not get beyond a 1-1 draw in front of their home crowd in the first leg.
While the Cypriots were happy with the result a week ago given the Scandinavians’ clear advantage in chances, it will be interesting to see if they can make the encounter more even in front of their own fans. Should the underdogs once again provide little relief, we would venture a prediction ahead of the second leg between AEK Larnaca and Midtjylland that the club from Herning, who have enjoyed much more success on the international stage recently, will make it into the third qualifying round.
AEK Larnaca – Statistics & current form
For the first time since 2018/19, AEK Larnaca are looking to get back into the mix in an international group stage. Back then, the Cypriots were allowed to compete with FC Zurich, Leverkusen and Ludogorez Rasgrad in the Europa League. However, with five points from six games, they were already eliminated in the preliminary round.
After a total of three years in the main draw, two of which (2020/21 & 2021/22) saw them miss out on the right to qualify for the European Cup, the Cypriots have set their sights high for the current season. To do so, they have once again not broken with a tried and tested tradition.
“Atletico” Larnaca want to fight back more at home
A Spaniard, Jose Luis Oltra, has been hired once again to replace successful coach David Bandía, who led the port city side to their first runners-up finish since 2016/17 after two consecutive fifth-place finishes. Eight of the last ten managers of the green-yellow team came from the Iberian peninsula. A certain southern European touch is also noticeable on the players’ side. A double-digit number of players originally come from Spain, Portugal or France, which is of course also noticeable in the team’s technically skilled style of play.
In the first leg a week ago, the Cypriots nevertheless reached their own limits. The outsiders had to withstand a whopping 24 shots on goal in Denmark. The final score of 1-1 was therefore by far the most positive result last Tuesday evening. Since it can be assumed that the Green-Yellows will be more courageous and attacking at home, there could again be many chances for the visitors.
We dare to doubt whether the Oltra team, which will not start the new league season until the end of August and has therefore not yet been able to gather much match practice or competitive hardness, will once again be able to save itself with luck and skill. In our opinion, the odds for an away win between AEK Larnaca and Midtjylland promise the most exciting value.
Predicted line-up of AEK Larnaca:
Piric; Christoforou, Tomovic, Milicevic, Garcia; Ledes, Sanjuro; Faraj, Trickovski, Gyurcso; Lopes
Last matches played by AEK Larnaca:
Champions League Qualification
20/07/2022 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 1 AEK Larnaca
Friendly club matches
02/07/2022 – Rapid Vienna 2 – 3 AEK Larnaca
1st League Championship Grp.
22/05/2022 – Apollon Limassol 0 – 1 AEK Larnaca
14/05/2022 – AEK Larnaca 2 – 0 Pafos FC
08/05/2022 – AEK Larnaca 1 – 1 Aris Limassol
Midtjylland – Statistics & current form
The first official week of the season would certainly have been quite different for FC Midtjylland. The reigning Danish champions have played three competitive matches in seven days and have not managed a single win. In the domestic league, after two home games against Randers (1:1) and Silkeborg (1:3), they have only one disappointing point. In the Champions League qualifiers, the red and black team also had to settle for a draw at home against AEK Larnaca.
The upcoming return match in Cyprus will therefore be a trend-setter for the coming weeks. Only advancing to the third qualifying round could buy coach Bo Henriksen, who has been in charge since the start of pre-season, some time and peace in the environment.
Does the first crisis of the new season already threaten?
With 15 departures, including youngster Oscar Fraulo, who moved to Borussia from Mönchengladbach, and more than ten new arrivals or terminated loan spells, it was clear that it would take a little time to practise automatisms.
However, the fact that the Danish top team is starting the league season so weakly definitely comes as a surprise and a warning signal. Perhaps the proverbial buck can now be turned in the first match away from home. In any case, we think that between AEK Larnaca and Midtjylland, you can’t go wrong with a prediction of a win for the visitors after 90 minutes.
The squad of the northern Europeans is worth almost five times as much as that of the Cypriots. In addition to the qualitative advantages, it should also be taken into account that the three-time national champions from Herning were still represented in the Champions League group stage in 2020/21 and were able to gain experience in both the Europa League and the Conference League last year. More footballing class, more experience in important Europa League qualifiers and more match practice are all factors that will tip the scales in the FCM’s direction on Tuesday night.
Predicted line-up of Midtjylland:
Olafsson; Dalsgaard, Sviatchenko, Juninho; Andersson, Charles, Onyedika, Paulinho; Isaksen, Chilufya, Dreyer
Last matches played by Midtjylland:
Superleague
22/07/2022 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 3 Silkeborg
Champions League Qualifier
20/07/2022 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 1 AEK Larnaca
Superleague
15/07/2022 – FC Midtjylland 1 – 1 Randers FC
Friendly club matches
10/07/2022 – KAA Gent 2 – 1 FC Midtjylland
30/06/2022 – FC Midtjylland 2 – 1 Aalborg BK
AEK Larnaca – Midtjylland Direct comparison / H2H balance
The first leg a week ago was the only meeting between these two clubs so far. Midtjylland had 55% possession, were clearly in control of the game and fired 24 shots on goal, of which only four were on target. In comparison: AEK Larnaca had four shots in the end. That makes the 1-1 final result all the more surprising. The Cypriots even took a sensational 1-0 lead after 81 minutes, but had to concede the equaliser just four turns of the hand later.
AEK Larnaca – Midtjylland Tip
Everything is open between AEK Larnaca and Midtjylland before the second leg in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League. According to the betting odds, however, the guests from Denmark are favoured. We can live with this assessment of the tested bookmakers, because in our eyes, too, the advantages in this exciting encounter lie with the team of coach Bo Henriksen.
The Scandinavians have been regularly represented in the Champions League or the Europa League in recent years, have the better quality squad at their disposal and are also already in the running, even though their start to the league season with one point from two games was anything but ideal. Given the clear advantage in chances a week ago and the general playing style of both teams, the better team should also prevail this time.
We have therefore decided to bet on an away win between AEK Larnaca and Midtjylland. At Bwin we get a 1.93 at the top for this. Eight out of ten possible units are targeted for betting.
Another interesting bet is that, in addition to the predicted FCM victory, at least two goals will be scored during the match. Here, even a 2.30 can be dusted off. The highlight in terms of odds is the handicap tip in favour of the Danes. For an away victory with at least two goals difference, 3.5 times the stake can be dusted off.
