Who will take the important first game in the Finals?
Offense wins Games – Goalies win Championships. We have changed the original quote a little bit, but that is exactly what applies to this year’s Stanley Cup Finals and our Vegas Golden Knights vs. Florida Panthers tip.
Adin Hill (Vegas) and Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida) are by far the best goalies in this year’s playoffs. In the Denfeses, however, the two teams are only ranked 4th and 6th. In this respect, it is the goalies who have made the difference so far.
In any case, we will get a first-time Stanley Cup champion, as neither the Golden Knights nor the Panthers have been able to triumph once in their franchise history. However, both franchises are also considered rather newer teams (NHL entry Florida Panthers: 1993, Vegas: 2017).
As for favourite status, it should easily be on the Knights’ side, but the Panthers have defied that status three times with the best, second-best and fourth-best teams in the Regular Season.
In this respect, for Vegas vs. Florida, our prediction is an absolute 50-50 duel where anything can happen in any game. With both teams going to overtime three times out of their last six games, even betting on X in this matchup is a playable betting option.
Vegas Golden Knights – Statistics & current form
Stanley Cup Finals the 2nd! After 2018, the Knights are in the Stanley Cup Finals for the second time in only their sixth season ever. Teams like the Edmonton Oilers or the Toronto Maple Leafs can take a leaf out of this development.
They deserved it in any case, even if they had 23 fewer shots on goal against Dallas. But they just had two other things that are essential for a deep playoff run: Efficiency and a strong No. 1 goalie.
Adin Hill the X-Factor
Adin Hill even leads the entire playoffs with a 93.7% Save Percentage, and that’s despite not even being Vegas’ No. 1 at the start of the postseason. Only due to the injury of Laurent Brossoit he came between the posts at all and did not give up this place with partly outstanding performances.
In addition to his strong save percentage, he even kept his box completely clean twice in the Conference Finals against Dallas. His counterpart Bobrovsky only managed to do so once. In general, this goalie duel should be of great importance.
Similar to the overall performance of the teams, we also see this goalie duel as very balanced. However, the slightly greater experience could ultimately speak in favour of Bobrovsky and Florida, which is why we also doubt their underdog status a little.
Last step the hardest
Going into the Stanley Cup Finals as favourites can be inspiring (as it was for the Avalanche last year), but it can also be inhibiting, as the Bruins experienced in 2018. A lot will come down to this first game on Saturday, where the course can already be set.
Win bets are really tough to play for Game 1. Exactly for the reason that so many games in these playoffs went to overtime – especially with Vegas and Florida. That’s why for Knights vs Panthers, a bet on X is actually also a bet that is playable and gives us incredibly good value.
Key Players:
- G: Adin Hill
- D: Alec Martinez
- D: Alex Pietrangelo
- LW: Ivan Barbashev
- C: Jack Eichel
- RW: Jonathan Marchessault
Florida Panthers – Statistics & current form
So both teams based in or around Miami have made it to the Finals: the Miami Heat in the NBA and the Florida Panthers in the NHL. Both as No. 8 seeds and both with a lot of heart and fighting spirit as underdogs.
That’s why the Panthers can be expected to do anything in this series and we don’t see them as gross underdogs at all. Especially when it comes to physical toughness, Florida has real iron men in the team with Tkachuk, Staal or Verhaeghe, who also go where it hurts sometimes.
Statistically inferior in some points
Overall, though, the stats are slightly against the Panthers. They score 0.52 fewer goals per game in these playoffs, for example, but concede 0.04 more. They are also 5.9% behind their Vegas counterparts in face-offs.
The two points in which they have been better so far, however, are hugely important: power play and penalty killing. They are 9.4 % ahead of the Knights on the power play and 8.2 % behind in penalty killing. So they have to rely on these special teams if they want to be successful.
Especially the Knights’ weakness in penalty killing (only 63% success rate) has to be attacked and accentuated by good overtime play. From our point of view, this is exactly the point that could decide the series in the end.
High or low scoring games?
Betting on Florida is also an acceptable alternative for this reason. So in addition to betting on X in Vegas vs. Florida, odds on the Panthers or on X2 are also good plays, especially since the Panthers are considered reasonably clear underdogs after all.
The question of total points is also difficult to answer at the beginning, because series momentum can often only be seen after one or two games. However, with these good offenses, we’re betting on over-points rather than under-points.
Key Players:
- G: Sergei Bobrovsky
- D: Gustav Forsling
- D: Radko Gudas
- LW: Carter Verhaeghe
- C: Aleksander Barkov
- RW: Sam Reinhart
Vegas Golden Knights – Florida Panthers Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Only ten times has this matchup ever been played in the NHL, making it one of the least played duels. Six of those ten games have gone to the Knights, with the Panthers winning the last meeting in early March.
In each of the last two seasons, the season record rang in 1-1 draws. Further evidence of the even nature of this matchup, which, as has been the case so often this postseason, could once again come down to overtime games.
Since the odds on the Knights vs. Panthers are so high (4.20 at Bwin), these bets are also exceptionally recommended. And then it could be the turn of Matthew Tkachuk, who has already won three games in overtime this post-season.
Vegas Golden Knights – Florida Panthers Tip
Stanley Cup Finals Game 1 – and it’s incredibly important. 69.1% of the time, the team that wins the first game ends up winning a playoff series. Moreover, it became obvious in these playoffs that home-ice advantage hardly plays a role.
In this respect, this duel is completely open and a bet on X is the logical consequence for Golden Knights vs. Since we think Florida has a good chance, a bet on X2 is also a good alternative, because the Panthers have won the first game in all three of their series.
Another alternative is betting on Matthew Tkachuk to score. He has already scored nine goals in these playoffs and has also been the winning goal scorer in overtime three times, which speaks for a strong nerve.
