Who will triumph in the duel of the giants?
The duel of the giants is coming up – and in one of the first two quarter-final matches. When it came to the world title in recent years, one of these two teams was always involved. In 2017, the two teams even faced each other in the final.
Sweden and Canada have also shared five of the last six World Cup titles. Canada was successful three times, Sweden twice. This year, both are once again among the top favourites, along with host Finland.
But who has the better chances is a matter of debate among experts. The Canadians will certainly come into the game with a few more NHL players. The Swedes, however, have the bigger stars (Dahlin, Ekman Larsson, Nylander).
Thus, our forecast for Sweden vs. Canada is an absolute 50:50 duel, which can also be seen in the odds. Surprisingly, the odds on a draw are still extremely high, which we should take advantage of in this case for rare bets on X.
Sweden – Statistics & current form
Sweden made one of the strongest impressions in this tournament in the preliminary round. They were also the only team that could bring the previously outstanding Finns to their knees – even if only after a penalty shootout.
Nevertheless, this game showed that the Scandinavians are a force to be reckoned with again this year. While the Canadians are usually considered the favourites in the game they are playing in (as was evident in the preliminary round), the betting companies are setting a 50:50 match here.
Top Offense vs Top Defence
While the Canadians can rely mainly on their offence (34 goals are the best in the preliminary round), it is the Swedes’ defence that excels. With only ten goals against, they have the second-best defence of the 2022 World Cup.
That makes sense when we look at their top players. With Dahlin, Ekman Larsson, Gustavsson, Pettersson and Adam Larsson, they have five seasoned NHL pros on the ice. They should also be superior to the Canadians defensively.
Little things will decide
27:10 was the goal differential for the Swedes, compared to 34:18 for the Canadians. +17 compared to +16, providing further evidence of how close the two teams are. We definitely don’t expect a big blowout win by one team here.
This makes the odds on a draw for Sweden against Canada look extremely attractive. The Swedes were also the only team that had to go into overtime twice in the preliminary round. A third time could be added on Thursday.
Key Players:
G: Linus Ullmark
D: Rasmus Dahlin
D: Oliver Ekman Larsson
LW: Joakim Nordström
C: Rasmus Asplund
RW: William Nylander
Canada – Statistics & current form
No favourites without Canada. Even though the Canadian team only finished third in their preliminary round group and was even behind the DEB team, we still have to count them as one of the top favourites. After all, they have won three of the last five World Championships and have also appeared in five of the last six finals.
The last time they failed before the semi-finals was in 2014, when they narrowly lost 3-2 to Finland in the quarter-finals. Since then, however, they have been almost unbeatable before the final. They still have that confidence in their heads, even though the preliminary round went only semi-optimally.
How solid is their defence?
We have already mentioned the Canadians’ top offence (34 goals), with Pierr-Luc Dubois in particular standing out with six goals. With Barzal, Batherson or Comtois, however, they have a mass of top goal scorers here overall that no other team in the World Cup can boast.
The question, however, will be whether they can improve their defence. With 18 goals conceded in the preliminary round, they only had the seventh-best defence here, which could be crucial, especially in the knockout round.
Low or high scoring game?
That in turn then leads straight to the next question of total goals. While the Canadians’ games in the preliminary round were always good for a lot of goals (7.42 on average), they now face a team that concedes just 1.43 goals per game.
This will also decide the match. We are leaning slightly towards over 5.0 total goals, but we see a bet on a draw as the better value for Sweden vs. Canada. With up to 4.15, this 50:50 duel is very highly valued.
Key Players:
G: Chris Driedger
D: Ryan Graves
D: Nick Holden
LW: Pierre-Luc Dubois
C: Mathew Barzal
RW: Drake Batherson
Sweden – Canada Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Of the last six duels, three each went to Sweden and three to Canada. Again, this suggests an even match-up. However, when looking at the total goals in these direct duels, the dilemma of betting on them again becomes apparent.
If the results of the preliminary round speak a lot for over-points, the 5-goal mark was only reached twice in these direct duels. In this respect, bets on over-points are possible, but should be chosen carefully.
In fact, this direct comparison is also a point that justifies a bet on a draw in Sweden vs. Canada. The Swedes in particular have always had very close games against teams on a par with them in the preliminary round and against Finland it went into overtime.
Sweden – Canada Tip
Record world champion against the record world champion since 2017. There is much to suggest that we will see the winner of this match in the final again. That’s why this quarter-final is likely to be one of the most competitive and exciting.
It is unlikely that one team will pull away quickly, and so the chances of a draw at the end increase. Even though bets on this are always associated with a certain risk, a tip on X at these odds is our betting recommendation for Sweden vs. Canada.
As a betting alternative, we take a goal from Pierre-Luc Dubois in this matchup. He leads the World Cup with six goals and we still get odds of up to 2.55 on a goal from him.
