Is Rafael Nadal crowning his comeback?

For tennis fans, Sunday morning is already planned, after all, the final match at the Australian Open 2022 in Melbourne is on the agenda. After the turmoil before the start of the tournament, the last two weeks have been all about the sport. And the fans did not miss out, because there were many exciting and high-class matches to watch. In the final, two players will face each other who know what a Grand Slam victory feels like. The Majorcan Rafael Nadal will meet Daniil Medvedev.

Regardless of the outcome of the match, it is already certain that this match will go down in the history books. Not only in the personal chronicles of Nadal or Medvedev, but the match will definitely have far-reaching effects. Especially for Novak Djokovic, because on Sunday the controversial Serb will lose one of his best records. Either he is no longer that player with the most Grand Slam titles or the number one position is no longer in his possession. Nadal is facing GS triumph 21, Medvedev can prevent that and would climb to the top of the tennis world even with his second GS title.

Nadal is the player with far more experience and the irrepressible will to win, Medvedev is certainly considered a tactical fox and probably physically fitter player. For the bookmakers, the Russian is relatively clear favourite and in the Australian Open final between Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev, betting odds around 2.70 are offered for the Spaniard, a win for the Russian results in a 1.55. The match will kick off at 9:30am Central European Time at the Rod Laver Arena.

Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form

What. For. A. Comeback. Rafael Nadal’s story this year is very reminiscent of Roger Federer’s in 2017, and as we all know, that story ended with the Grand Slam title for the Swiss. Rafael Nadal has often been out of action due to injuries, always fighting his way back. But with increasing age, the road back is even harder. The now 35-year-old, however, has a strong will to win that no one else has in this form.

Sixth Australian Open final for Nadal

His own expectations were not particularly high for the first highlight of 2022. Understatement is seen in many athletes after a long break, but Nadal is considered a player who knows his own body relatively well. He himself is all the more surprised by his performances so far in 2022. After winning the title at a preparatory tournament, he keeps his clean slate in this calendar year.

Physically, too, the Majorcan has shown that he is capable of surviving difficult situations. The quarter-final against Shapovalov after losing a 0:2 set lead was on a knife’s edge. In the semi-final against Matteo Berrettini, Nadal was again in top form and had clear tactical advantages. Again and again he played Berrettini’s backhand and profited from simple mistakes. After just under three hours, Nadal had a well-deserved victory in which he hardly made a single unforced error.

Happy to be playing tennis again

In those days, Nadal often stressed that he didn’t know at all if he would be able to return again. The foot injury caused many question marks, so he is all the happier to be able to pursue his passion again. Nadal is really up for it and especially in the mental area no one can hold a candle to him. Coupled with his irrepressible will to win, GS triumph 21 is definitely in his hands. Value is certainly to be found in the final between Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev with the prediction on the Spaniard.

Daniil Medvedev – Statistics & current form

At the last Grand Slam tournament, the 2021 US Open, Daniil Medvedev prevented Serbia’s Novak Djokovic from winning his 21st Grand Slam title and annual Grand Slam. At that time, Djokovic was not mentally up to the mark and the Russian had a correspondingly easy game.

Now the strong-serving Medvedev could once again doom “Mission 21” to failure. The 25-year-old Russian is only the second player in Open Era history to reach the final again after his first GS title at the next Grand Slam tournament. No player has ever managed to win the next GS tournament after the first one.

Medvedev was already facing elimination

Winning the title Down Under would be all the more remarkable because the Russian had to come back from a 0:2 deficit in the quarter-finals against the strong-playing Felix Auger-Aliassime. In the fourth round, the Canadian even had a match point, but Medvedev defended it with a service.

His semi-final against Stefanos Tsitsipas was also a knife-edge affair. Medvedev was almost untouchable for a long time with his service, but after losing the second set, the Russian literally exploded and got into a fight with the umpire. As in the quarter-final against FAA, the umpire got his fat and clearly audible, he questioned whether he was stupid after Tsitsipas’ father coached him permanently.

But the Russian is a player who often needs an outlet to vent his anger/disappointment/annoyance. He was clearly superior in the rest of the match. 2:30 hours for four sets is almost a quickie. The 86 percent of points won after the first serve were also outstanding. Medvedev won all of his first 22 points on serve. There will probably not be many breaks in the final and a close match is quite obvious. Accordingly, in the top tips for the match Nadal vs. Medvedev, the prediction is Over 41.5 Games.

Rafael Nadal – Daniil Medvedev Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance

Head to Head: 3:1

After a break of more than a year, the two players are now facing each other again. In total, the final match at the Happy Slam in Melbourne will be the fifth duel. So far, Rafael Nadal has the lead in the direct comparison with three victories. However, the Russian won the last match so far at the ATP Finals 2020 in London.

Rafael Nadal – Daniil Medvedev Tip

The majority of fans at Rod Laver Arena on Sunday will be rooting for Spain’s Rafael Nadal. Daniil Medvedev has every right to be in the final, but he definitely couldn’t play his way into the hearts of the spectators with his manner and his outbursts. Mentally, Nadal is much more stable, Medvedev often takes a time-out, but can then turn the negative energy into a positive one. That’s another reason why Nadal’s prediction of a close match against Medvedev seems obvious.

As the match progresses, the Russian, who is ten years younger, will probably have physical advantages. Therefore, there is a certain risk in betting on the Spaniard. However, Nadal is in excellent form in Down Under, has an extreme will to win and has nothing to lose. Unlike Djokovic at the US Open in 2021, GS title number 21 is not his absolute goal.

Nadal has tremendous joy that he is fit again and can perform at high/highest level. Moreover, he can rattle Medvedev with his style of play and make him white-knuckle. Will it be enough to win? It would be good for him, but there is a very good chance that he will win at least two sets here. Accordingly, our tip for the 2022 Australian Open final between Nadal and Daniil Medvedev is “Nadal +1.5 sets” at good odds. Bet? Six units!