Who will take the AFC East?
Christmas time is football time – at least in North America this is a tradition and on the 2nd Christmas Day there are again numerous games on the schedule – this Sunday among others also the exciting duel of the Patriots with the Bills.
Both are separated by just one win; the winner has a good chance to win the AFC East and qualify for the playoffs as one of the top 4 seeds. So there is a lot at stake.
The slightly better cards are held by the Patriots, who have a one win advantage, won the first duel three weeks ago and generally can also show the slightly better form in recent weeks.
Our prediction for Sunday’s Patriots vs. Bills is a win for New England, but again a very close one. The 24 points from the last duel should be surpassed, but it could again come to a low-scoring game.
Kickoff of this game on Boxing Day is on Sunday at 19:00 in Boston. The game will be broadcast live by ProSieben Maxx and DAZN.
New England Patriots – Statistics & current form
The Patriots have lost again after seven wins in a row. In Indianapolis they lost 17:27 against the Colts, in a game they didn’t get into from the start. But that had to happen, because it was unlikely that the Pats would march all the way to the Super Bowl.
The loss also highlighted a few weaknesses in the Pats’ game. As soon as their own running game doesn’t work properly, Mac Jones also weakens. His two interceptions came at crucial moments – to the detriment of the Patriots.
Mac Jones is still a rookie
What has almost been forgotten in recent weeks and months, however, is that Mac Jones is still a rookie. With Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson, we see how something like this usually goes with the acclimation to the NFL.
It’s very rare for someone to start as routinely and flawlessly as Jones. Therefore, he must also be allowed to have such less good games. But that’s what Belichick and the Pats are doing, which should give him enough support to bounce back.
We expect that as early as Sunday against Buffalo. Since there shouldn’t be a “Wind Bowl” like three weeks ago when Jones was allowed to throw a whole three times, he should get a chance to score a touchdown or two again.
Recent low scoring game expected
Although we don’t expect a 14-10, the two best defenses in the league will meet again on Sunday. The Pats allow just 16.2 points per game, the Bills 17.4, and the slight advantage in yards is exactly reversed (Bills: 287.9 to Pats: 307.5).
This should make it difficult to reach the 40 total points on Sunday as well, which leaves us with several betting options. Besides betting on New England, we would favour a bet on no team scoring three times in a row in Pats vs. Bills. In low scoring games, often a safe bet.
Key Players:
QB: Mac Jones
RB: Damien Harris
WR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Jonnu Smith
K: Nick Folk
Buffalo Bills – stats & current form
The must-win against the Carolina Panthers is now followed by the free skate against the New England Patriots. But free skate is already considered very benevolent, because with a defeat, the Bills could even slip from a playoff spot. So they have a bit of an obligation.
However, there is not much in their favour. They have won only two of their last ten meetings against the Pats. They also lost their home game against them three weeks ago with 10:14 and looked anything but good offensively.
Duell of the top defenses is coming up
While the Bills are still the league’s top defence in terms of yards conceded (287.9 yards on average), that figure has come mostly from a couple of blowout wins against weak teams (Dolphins, Texans, Jets).
In recent games, they haven’t been as stable for a long time – especially against the run. In their last three games, they conceded 222, 137 and 124 yards on the ground, averaging 161 yards allowed. Way too much for a top-ranked defense.
Bills only mediocre
Of particular concern, of course, is the 222 yards poured in for them by the Pats in their last meeting. If they can’t at least cut that number in half, we see Buffalo in the black again on Sunday.
Overall, we just don’t see how the Bills should score more than 20 points against these Pats. Thus, this is a bettable pick on New England vs Buffalo. So is a bet on a Pats win. It would be the clincher in the AFC East.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We’ve already touched on the stats per Patriots. Of the last ten duels, eight have gone to New England. If we go back a little further, it doesn’t get any better. Of the last 20 duels, the Pats won 16.
The Bills have not yet developed this winning gene, which of course has long been shaped by the Belichick-Brady connection. Even if they have made a clear step forward in the last two years thanks to Josh Allen.
Still, for Patriots vs. Bills, the odds are a little more bettable on the home team than on Buffalo. However, if you trust the Bills to make it as close as they did three weeks ago, there are plenty of betting options, including subpar points.
New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills Tip
The Bills’ weakness against the run and their traditional problems against Bill Belichick’s team: two of the main reasons for the Pats’ favourite status. However, this one is very slim, which makes the handicapping question difficult.
We have a way out. Since low scoring games (which is to be expected here) often seesaw back and forth, it is rather unlikely that a team will score three times in a row. While this is a somewhat unusual betting option, the high value makes this bet more than promising.
For Pats vs Bills, the odds on subpar points are also worth a look. The set 43.5 has only been topped in two of the last seven head-to-head duels. Three weeks ago, there were even only 24 total points.
