Will the Bengals conquer Arrowhead Stadium again?
NFL Conference Championship Games – a matter of honour and nerves. In our Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals tip, it’s also a matter of adjustments, as both teams have faced each other several times recently.
Such as in last year’s Conference Finals at the same venue. All of the past three games in the last two years have gone to Cincinnati (each by a three-point difference) – one reason why they are not necessarily considered the big underdogs in Kansas City.
The second reason, of course, is the uncertain situation around Patrick Mahome’s ankle. How badly the injury he suffered against the Jaguars will affect him is probably not yet foreseeable until the first drive – which also makes betting a bit of a vabanque game.
We therefore don’t see win bets as our top option for this game, and so for Chiefs vs Bengals our prediction is a game with a few points, where the Chiefs’ running backs Pacheco and McKinnon are also likely to play more of a role. The outcome is completely open.
Kickoff of the late Conference Final is at 00:30 on Monday night in Kansas City. The match can be followed live on ProSieben, ran.de and on DAZN.
Kansas City Chiefs – Statistics & current form
How is Patrick Mahome’s left ankle? No other question has been asked more frequently by fans, pundits and probably Chiefs players themselves in recent days. A definite answer has yet to be given, but his participation in practice sessions during the week is at least a good sign for the Chiefs.
However, this does not mean that he is at 100%, which would be very important for Sunday. Because with only 80% performance it will be very difficult for Kansas City. The Bengals are just too strong for that.
Do the Chiefs have a plan B?
We assume that Pat Mahomes will be able to play close to his best this weekend. And even if he doesn’t, he’s still a quarterback who finds his own solutions to cover up slight weaknesses. One of the main options: short passes to Kelce or McKinnon.
Especially the running back lends himself extremely well to planning short but promising plays. In the Chiefs’ last six regular-season games, the Mahomes/McKinnon duo scored an impressive nine touchdowns, eight of them via the pass alone.
So we can expect McKinnon to score a touchdown again on Sunday. Since the odds on Kansas City vs. Cincinnati are extremely high, bets on a McKinnon TD are already our first betting recommendation.
Defense can when it has to
There’s always a lot of talk about the Chiefs’ offence, but their defence isn’t bad either. They allowed 21.7 points per game in the regular season and 20.0 so far in the playoffs, which is a very good number considering they’ve been scoring 20 points in almost every game offensively.
So it’s also hard for us to bet against the Chiefs here. Home field advantage, Andy Reid on the sideline and Travis Kelce are such strong factors away from Mahomes that we trust the Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl again here.
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Isiah Pacheco
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Harrison Butker
Cincinnati Bengals – stats & current form
The Bengals have undergone an extreme transformation. Just two years ago, we wrote about their incredible playoff woes, losing a whopping eight straight playoff games between 1990 and 2015. But since Joe Burrow arrived, they are now 5-1.
Their only loss was a narrow defeat in last year’s Super Bowl against the Rams. This certainly gives them additional motivation to turn the tables this season. Especially against the Bills, this focus was very noticeable.
Over 20 points again
Before the game against the Bills, we touched on their incredible streak of 20-point games. They are now at ten games in a row with at least 20 points every time. That puts them right on the heels of the Chiefs, who are at 15 games here.
If we now have two 20-point guarantors on the field against each other, then we can also once again assume a game with a lot of points. The last five head-to-head duels have always seen over 50 total points, with an average of 55.8.
This makes the 47.5 total points set another interesting betting option. Since the Bengals are considered slight favourites, we would actually rather avoid betting on them – despite their good form.
Who will win the run game?
Both teams certainly have their strengths through the air. However, in a contested game, the team that can run the ball better often wins. And this is where we see the Bengals’ biggest problems before.
In the regular season, Cincinnati put up the fourth-weakest rushing game at 95.5 yards per game, which also put them well behind Kansas City at the end (115.9 yards per game). When push comes to shove, that could be exactly the point that works against the Bengals.
Therefore, betting on Cincinnati is not recommended for Chiefs vs. Bengals. Especially since they are considered slight underdogs, the value/risk trade-off here is negative.
QB: Joe Burrow
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Ja’Marre Chase
TE: Hayden Hurst
K: Evan McPherson
Kansas City Chiefs – Cincinnati Bengals Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
We’ve already touched on the last three head-to-head duels. Since the Mahomes vs. Burrow duel has existed, the younger of the two (Burrow) has always maintained the upper hand. However, all three duels were hard-fought and were only decided by a three-point difference in each case.
In the pre-season playoffs, the game even went into overtime, where a field goal by Evan McPherson made the difference in the end. A similar thriller could await us again on Sunday night, making win betting a roulette game.
Thus, the odds on the Chiefs vs. Bengals are more favourable on over-points and on McKinnon or Kelce scoring downs. Especially the odds on a TD by McKinnon are really good with up to 2.87.
Kansas City Chiefs – Cincinnati Bengals Tip
The left ankle of Mahomes and the direct comparison speak pro Bengals, the home advantage, Mahomes/Kelce and the experience pro Chiefs. All in all, this game can go either way, which is why we need to find betting options other than win bets.
We will find what we are looking for here at TD betting. For Kansas City vs. Cincinnati, a bet on a McKinnon touchdown is our No.1 bet. In addition, TD bets on Travis Kelce are of course always an option, as he often turns it up especially in the playoffs.
Alternatively, over-point bets are also an option. Both teams are considered consistent 20-point teams. However, they often score significantly more (Chiefs even the most points of all teams with 29.2), which makes a bet of over 47.5 points promising.