Does the Canadiens’ upward trend continue?
Western versus Eastern Canada is the name of the game on Saturday night when the Edmonton Oilers host the Montréal Canadiens. The men around Leon Draisaitl are already under a lot of pressure after the loss in Chicago. They are only one point ahead of 9th place in the Western Conference.
So the six home games out of the next seven are just what they need to create a little more cushion. It remains to be seen whether the Canadiens are the right opponent for that, though, as they have won three of their last four appearances in Edmonton.
In addition, the reigning Stanley Cup finalists are getting better and better into their stride – after a capital false start, it must be noted. The Habs have won six of their last seven games, after previously winning just eight games in total – with 40 losses.
This upswing comes too late for this season, but makes us not underestimate them from now on. If you can win in Calgary at the division leader, you can win in Edmonton, which makes for a prediction of a very close game for Oilers vs Canadiens.
Edmonton Oilers – Statistics & current form
Leon Draisaitl currently leads the scoring charts with 38 goals, but he would certainly trade all of that to go on a deeper playoff run for once. But once again, the Oilers don’t seem consistent enough this season.
Very good games like the 4:3 at the Panthers or the 3:0 at the Flyers alternate far too often with unnecessary losses like the 3:7 against the Wild or the 3:4 in Chicago on Thursday. Especially against teams with a weaker record, they often have a harder time than they should have.
Also often outmatched on shots
It is noticeable that they rarely ever manage to control a game from front to back. Again and again there are phases in which the opponent is completely stuck in the Oilers third and then inevitably scores at some point.
Even in what looked like a clear 3-0 win in Philadelphia, they ended up trailing 32-39 on shots. Against the Panthers a week ago, that statistic was even 22:47. That game was won only with a lot of luck and thanks to Mikko Koskinen.
Without Koskinen no chance
This brings us to the realisation, though, that without a strong goalkeeping performance they are currently totally at a loss. And Mikko Koskinen is no Igor Shesterkin or Jacob Markstrom. That makes even games against supposedly weaker teams 50:50 affairs.
Such a duel is coming up again on Saturday, when the Canadiens, who are currently in strong form, come to Edmonton. For Oilers vs. Habs, the odds on Montréal +1 are therefore our clear betting recommendation, as betting on Edmonton currently resembles a suicide mission.
Key Players:
G: Mikko Koskinen
D: Darnell Nurse
D: Evan Bouchard
LW: Warren Foegele
C: Connor McDavid
RW: Zach Hyman
Montreal Canadiens – Statistics & current form
The Montreal Canadiens had the weakest start of the season of all NHL teams, so that they were already hopelessly behind at the All-Star-Break and had hardly any chances for the postseason. It is therefore a transitional season for them.
But they have proved often enough in recent weeks that they can still do it. Most recently at the Pacific Division leaders Calgary. They were able to defeat them 5:4 after overtime and not even undeservedly.
Canadiens much better than their stats
If we take their standings, they should be the clear underdogs against any other team. However, since they don’t currently perform like a bottom team, betting on them is a good way to pick up better value.
This is also the case on Saturday, when they have win odds of up to 4.45 to book. However, as we also see the chance of them narrowly losing the game or a draw arriving, betting on Canadiens +1 is the most promising option for Edmonton vs. Montréal.
Defence still very vulnerable
Why they got into this standings situation in the first place has a lot to do with their defense. They allow 3.82 goals per game, 0.21 more than the second weakest team in the entire NHL, the Columbus Blue Jackets.
This insanely weak value makes it difficult for them to win games, and it is only since their offence got going that they are succeeding. In that respect, betting on Over 6.5 total goals in this matchup is still a great betting option.
Key Players:
G: Andrew Hammond
D: Alexander Romanov
D: Ben Chiarot
LW: Caule Caufield
C: Nick Suzuki
RW: Josh Anderson
Edmonton Oilers – Montreal Canadiens Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
The Oilers have a decent, but not outstanding home record this season at 14-11. Especially recently they have stumbled in front of their home crowd. The Canadiens, on the other hand, have won three of their last four away games.
Three of the last four meetings in Edmonton were won by Montréal, all in 2021, so the Habs feel more comfortable at Rogers Place than at home. This underlines our analysis that they should not be considered the big underdogs on Saturday.
This in turn creates numerous betting opportunities, such as bets on Montréal in the third period, win bets or even handicap bets. For Oilers vs. Canadiens, betting on Montréal +1 is the best option for us, as win bets seem to be a bit too risky.
Edmonton Oilers – Montreal Canadiens Pick
The Oilers are the favourites. Yes, that’s true and they have to be listed as such based on the standings. But this lead is so small from a betting basis point of view that betting on them makes little sense.
The Canadiens’ improving form is much more striking (they have won 6 of their last 7 games). Thus, for Oilers vs. Canadiens, the odds on Montréal +1 are our favoured betting option to pick up the best possible value.
Over-Points is our alternative betting option. The Canadiens allow the most goals in the league and the Oilers also have one of the ten weakest defenses in the league (3.18 goals against per game). There should be a high probability that the 6.5 goal mark will be surpassed.
