Do the Oilers lose again at home?
The NHL is going crazy this weekend and with the duel of the Oilers against the Kings there is a second game 7 in a row after the duel of the Leafs with the Bolts. The conditions of these games are very similar.
The home team from Edmonton is also the favourite here, but they have a playoff history to forget lately. Moreover, they have not won a Game 7 since 1998. The Kings, on the other hand, have won all of their past four Game 7s.
So, again, not all favourites are the same. At least we don’t see the favourites on paper and with the bookies as our favourites. Rather, this is one of those famous 50-50 duels in deciding games.
That’s why our forecast for Oilers vs Kings is split: If the Oilers get off to a good start, then it could end well in their favour. However, if we get a close game, which we tend to assume, then the advantages are clearly on the side of the Californians.
Edmonton Oilers – Statistics & current form
So Game 7 in Edmonton as well – and that’s what they actually wanted to avoid with the Oilers. After trailing 2:3, they still like to take it with them, so they still have the chance to finally turn the prime of their stars McDavid and Draisaitl into something countable.
However, the history of seventh games does not exactly speak in their favour. The last time they won a deciding game in a playoff series was 1998 in the first round against the Avalanche.
How do the Oilers handle the pressure?
Because of their status as favourites on paper and their long stretch of suffering in the playoffs, all the pressure is naturally on the Canadiens on Saturday. While the Kings are already on target to make the playoffs, a first-round exit would be a huge disappointment for Edmonton.
It would also be accompanied by numerous changes, starting at the coaching position. So the entire team is now challenged to turn that pressure into positive energy. This can be achieved, but experience shows that it has often gone wrong.
Statistically, Edmonton is clearly in the lead
Even before the last duel we asked ourselves how it could get so close in this series. The Oilers are clearly ahead of the Kings in all important stats. They score more goals per game (4.17 to 2.83) and concede less.
On the power play they dominate with 38.9% to 12.5% and on face-offs with 51.7% to 48.3%. But exactly this apparent superiority could also be their biggest weakness in the end. If they drop just a few percentage points, the Kings will be there.
They know how to win, some of the team have already been Stanley Cup winners several times. So we see a 50:50 duel coming up on Saturday, where the form of the day will decide, which actually makes the odds on LA more bettable for Oilers vs. Kings.
Key Players:
G: Mike Smith
D: Darnell Nurse
D: Cody Ceci
LW: Evander Kane
C: Connor McDavid
RW: Kailer Yamamoto
Los Angeles Kings – Statistics & current form
The Kings had a huge chance to put the lid on it at home and win the series. That they failed to do so came as no surprise now, as home court advantage is not really one in this series. Four of the six wins so far have come away from home.
That now speaks slightly in favour of the Kings on Saturday, who also have the history of the last eleven years on their side. They have won the Stanley Cup twice, while the Oilers have won only one playoff series in that time.
Start of the game of great importance
How the game will go should again become apparent early on Saturday. In each of the six duels so far, the team that scored the first goal also won in the end. In five out of six cases, this team also won the first period.
Of course, this also makes live betting interesting at the weekend (for all those who want to stay awake that long). Because if, for example, the Kings score the first goal, the odds on them should still remain appealing, but the chance of winning should increase extremely.
Jonathan Quick called for
Goalie Jonathan Quick will also have his work cut out for him again. With 89.3% his save percentage in this series doesn’t look too good, but it was destroyed in the two games LA lost far before the end – partly at the expense of their goalie.
In the last game in Edmonton, however, he managed a shutout (31 of 31 saves) and was one of the decisive players. Since we see him ahead in the goalie duel with his Stanley Cup experience, the tip for Edmonton vs. LA is to keep an eye on the Kings.
Key Players:
G: Jonathan Quick
D: Mikey Anderson
D: Matt Roy
LW: Alex Iafallo
C: Anze Kopitar
RW: Adrian Kempe
Edmonton Oilers – Los Angeles Kings Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
Everything starts all over again, which is why we shouldn’t come at this series with head-to-head matchups from a few years ago. 3:3 is the number that counts and the even more decisive one will be on the scoreboard at the end of Game 7.
Of course, the playing class speaks for the Oilers, who after all have two of the best players in the league in their ranks (McDavid and Draisaitl). The Kings, however, have the greater experience, especially in critical situations.
Who will prevail in the end remains to be seen. But since the odds are so much better on the Kings in Edmonton vs. Los Angeles, we should definitely favour them with smaller bets. Often it’s more the head than the class that decides in Game 7.
Edmonton Oilers – Los Angeles Kings Tip
The Oilers are considered the favourites, which seems understandable on the surface given their home advantage and their stars. But a Game 7 in an NHL playoff series just doesn’t have much to do with “normal”.
So we go against the oddsmakers here and see a bet on the away team as a better value for Oilers vs Kings. For betting odds of up to 3.65, this duel is enormously balanced, which is proven by the intermediate score of 3:3 in the series alone.
As a betting alternative, we would, as in pretty much every Game 7, favour bets on sub-points. We also still get very good value for under 6.5 goals and the Oilers’ last Game 7 of 2017 also ended with very few goals (1-2 against the Ducks).
