Who will win the NHL Heritage Classic Outdoor Game?
Welcome to the first NHL Outdoor Game of this season, the Tim Hortons NHL Heritage Classic in Hamilton, Ontario. These outdoor games have become a tradition and always take place early enough in the day so that European field hockey fans can watch them at a convenient time.
This Sunday, the game therefore starts at 22.00 German time and also runs live on Sky. Also to be noted is that it takes place in Hamilton, Canada, right between the two cities of Buffalo and Toronto. It’s listed as a home game for the Sabres, but there shouldn’t be much of a home field advantage.
This, of course, further increases the odds for the already favored Maple Leafs. They have the fifth most points in the league so far with 79, while the Sabres have the fourth least points with 46.
In this respect, our forecast for Sabres vs. Maple Leafs is a favorite victory, which will not be accompanied by a goal festival in new surroundings. Just three total goals were scored in each of the last two NHL Heritage Classics.
Buffalo Sabres – statistics & current form
The Buffalo Sabres are one of the five worst teams in the league this season, but provide positive surprises every now and then. Their upcoming opponents from Toronto can also sing a song about that, to whom they last poured five goals in their hall.
However, this 5:1 win was also the first victory after six defeats in a row and says everything about their inconsistency this season. That they will now beat the Leafs for the second time in a row is therefore not exactly likely either.
Sabres the worst face-off team in the NHL
At least if we look at the stats, we can’t give them many chances for Sunday. 2.63 own goals are opposed by Toronto’s 3.71 and they also have the worse record when it comes to goals against (3.54 to 3.02).
In all important statistics Buffalo is in the bottom 10, but there is even one where they are by far the weakest team: in face-offs. With a 46.0% success rate, they’re already well behind the second-weakest team in Colorado – further evidence of their lousy season.
Home court advantage missing on top
While the Sabres aren’t a team known for outstanding home strength now anyway, even that minimal advantage falls away on Sunday. On paper they are the home team, but Hamilton is in Canada and, strictly speaking, a few miles closer to Toronto than Buffalo.
No matter how we look at it, there’s little to suggest a repeat of the win from ten days ago. In this respect, the odds on the Leafs are more recommendable for Buffalo against Toronto – even with a handicap of -1.5.
Key Players:
G: Craig Anderson
D: Rasmus Dahlin
D: Henri Jokiharju
LW: Jeff Skinner
C: Tage Thompson
RW: Alex Tuch
Toronto Maple Leafs – stats & current form
1:5 at home against the Sabres. I don’t think more needs to be said about the Leafs’ motivation for Sunday. That 1:5 ten days ago was a humiliation in front of their own fans and should be the driving force for a successful revenge on Sunday.
Buffalo’s lack of home-court advantage and the statistics do the rest that we have to concede Toronto the crystal-clear favorite status for this duel. With three of the last four Heritage Classics decided by more than a one-goal difference, we can easily see that happening this weekend as well.
Matthews on track to be top goal scorer
As if those weren’t enough motivational reasons already, there’s another: The scoring crown for Auston Matthews. He currently leads the NHL with 44 goals and has recently built up a small cushion on Leon Draisatil. But an outdoor game like this is of course the perfect opportunity to go one better.
So for Buffalo vs. Toronto, the odds are worthwhile for a bet on a Matthews goal as well as on the Leafs to win. However, as one of the best betting options, we should also have sub-par points on tap, as we do for all outdoor games.
Key Players:
G: Jack Campbell
D: Morgan Rielly
D: Timothy Liljegren
LW: Michael Bunting
C: Auston Matthews
RW: Mitch Marner
Buffalo Sabres – Toronto Maple Leafs Direct comparison / H2H balance
Over the last three years, these two teams have alternated wins with nice regularity. In that respect, it should now be the Toronto Maple Leafs’ turn again after the 1-5 loss ten days ago.
Historically, they also have the better record. Of the last ten meetings, for example, the Leafs have won seven. Besides the better current form, this is another point in favor of Toronto.
Since Sabres games have often been low-scoring (o:3 vs. Kings, 3:1 vs. Knights) and the last four Heritage Classics have seen an average of only 4.0 total goals, our best bet for Sabres vs. Leafs is a sub-par prediction.
Buffalo Sabres – Toronto Maple Leafs betting tip
Toronto has a home game as an away game. That alone probably justifies their favorite status. The fact that they are then ahead in all stats only cements that assumption. However, we see one of the less outdoor games coming up on Sunday.
In these games, the average number of goals scored is always significantly lower than usual in the NHL. That makes betting on the Sabres vs. the Maple Leafs look more promising than betting on the Leafs with a clear handicap.
Alternatively, other sub-points bets are therefore recommended. Up to Under 5.5 hits we would go down here and still have a good feeling that we are on the safe side.
