Will ALBA already manage the pre-decisive victory?
In the final series for the German Basketball Championship, ALBA Berlin came out on top last Friday. With 86:73, the defending champions celebrated a deserved home victory, which, however, was only so clear thanks to a very strong final phase. The second game of the series will be played on Tuesday evening, this time in the Audi Dome in Munich.
The pressure is clearly on the shoulders of the top eight team from the Euroleague. If Andrea Trinchieri and his charges lose out again, it could already be a preliminary decision in the fight for the title. It is hard to imagine the Albatrosses losing three times in a row after a 2-0 series lead, twice even in front of their home crowd.
The bookmakers at least expect the tension between the two best basketball teams in the country to be maintained. Before Game 2 between Bayern and ALBA Berlin, the odds namely point to Vladimir Lucic, Nick Weiler-Babb and Co. being quite clear favourites. Despite the home advantage, the guests from Berlin are not classic underdogs in our eyes. Quite the opposite. More value is to be found in betting on an away victory.
Bayern – statistics & current form
FC Bayern’s squad has been broad and of high quality in the run-up to this season. While expectations were met at international level with a place in the Euroleague play-offs, where they were ultimately narrowly defeated by FC Barcelona 2:3, the aim now is to bag their first championship since 2019 on the national stage as well. However, this will require a significant improvement in the coming games against strong Albatrosses.
In the first game of the final series, it was once again the rebounding that was the sticking point. After 40 minutes of pure playing time, Bayern had nine fewer rebounds than ALBA. They allowed a total of twelve offensive boards and thus also relinquished control in the zone. Again and again it was the big men of Berlin who had the say under the baskets and hurled a total of nine more completions from the two-point area through the trap.
How does Bayern get the tiredness out of their heads?
Had the Munich team around top scorer Andi Obst not surprisingly scored at a high percentage from beyond the 6.75m line, the match would probably have tilted in the direction of the home side earlier. Coach Andrea Trinchieri is hoping for an improved performance in many respects in front of his home crowd. It should give pause for thought, however, that the FCB also lost the two most recent home games in the semi-final series against Bonn and thus had to play a decisive fifth game.
The bottom line is that the third-placed team in the main round had to play two more play-off games and is now being challenged at the highest level for the fourth time in eight days. Lucic and Co. were already used to this rhythm from the regular season, but coach Trinchieri also rotated a lot more back then. Now the key players have to play more than 30 minutes, which is why we don’t expect them to be at 100%.
We therefore believe that the more promising value is hidden between FC Bayern Basketball and ALBA Berlin in the betting on the away win. The Munich side have lost three of their last four competitive games, are under immense pressure and still have to do without many important players. Add to that being physically outclassed in the front court once again, and you almost completely run out of valid arguments for the 2019 champions to succeed.
Predicted Bayern line-up:
PG: Nick Weiler-Babb
SG: Nihad Dedovic
SF: Vlado Lucic
PF: Augustine Rubit
C: Leon Radosevic
Alba Berlin – Statistics & current form
ALBA Berlin has a perfect starting position for this second final match at the Audi Dome. With a win, as already indicated, they can bring about a kind of preliminary decision in the “Best-of-Five” series. In case of a defeat, not much will have happened and the reigning Cup winners can bring the championship title to the capital for the third time in a row with two more home wins in Game 3 and Game 5.
In our eyes, however, there is a high chance that the odds on the visitors winning will pay off as early as Tuesday night between Bayern and ALBA Berlin. Coach Israel Gonzalez’s team is currently too confident and consistent. In the meantime, ALBA has won 17 consecutive games. The last defeat against a German opponent dates back to the end of March. The momentum is therefore clearly on the side of the yellow-blues.
ALBA no longer know what defeats feel like
Apart from that, the biggest advantage of the first team in the main round at the moment is that there is an absolutely functioning collective on the floor. All players know their roles, there is no classic go-to guy who is the top scorer every game, but there are various professionals like Maodo Lo, Jaleen Smith, Luke Sikma or Oscar da Silva, who moved to FC Barcelona in the summer, who can make their mark on the game in various phases.
The outstanding team chemistry combined with the remarkable squad depth, which can be attributed to former Spanish teacher Aito and his penchant for integrating young German players, makes ALBA a national basketball power. If one or two of Bayern’s key players can’t live up to their potential, it has an extremely negative effect on the team’s performance; with ALBA, on the other hand, other players step into the breach and increase their team’s chances of winning.
Although the home advantage and the deep run in the Euroleague tend to swing in the direction of the Munich team, we firmly believe that the odds for a Bayern vs. ALBA Berlin forecast on the away win are far too high and therefore contain an exciting value. Completely free of pressure, the traditional club from the capital can definitely be trusted to take the 2:0 series lead.
Predicted line-up of Alba Berlin:
PG: Maodo Lo
SG: Jaleen Smith
SF: Louis Olinde
PF: Luke Sikma
C: Ben Lammers
Bayern – ALBA Berlin Direct Comparison / H2H-Balance
This is the sixth time that the two teams have faced each other this season. In the Euroleague, the Bavarians were able to win both meetings; in the league, however, the away team prevailed in each case. The Albatrosses finally celebrated their first home win in their third attempt last Friday.
A look at the total points is also interesting. In three of the five direct duels, at least 159 points were scored. Therefore, it is also an option to bet on over 159.5 points for Game 2 of the final series. After a long and energy-sapping season, both teams still have a hot hand from the outside. In Game 1, both Munich and Berlin hit 15 threes on a near 50% shooting percentage from the outside.
Bayern – Alba Berlin Tip
In the BBL finals series for the German basketball championship, we look forward to Game 2 on Tuesday evening. After the Albatrosses got the upper hand in front of their home crowd in the opener, putting them at 1-0 in the series, both teams now travel to Munich, where the home side in particular will naturally want to equalise at the Audi Dome. Given the fact that another defeat could lead to a preliminary decision, there is a lot of pressure on the Trinchieri team.
In our opinion, however, this still has too little effect on the Bayern vs. ALBA Berlin betting odds. The quarter-finalists of this year’s Euroleague season are still the favourites. An assessment with which we do not necessarily agree. ALBA have won all of their last 17 competitive games, are in fantastic shape and can also go into this match completely free.
