Will FC Bayern make German basketball history?
FC Bayern Basketball can make history on Tuesday night. The Munich team could become the first German team ever to make it to the Euroleague Final Four in Belgrade. But to actually join the best four basketball teams on the continent, they need an away win in the decisive fifth game of the playoff series at the Palau Blaugrana in Barcelona.
Just how difficult this undertaking will be is underlined by the odds ahead of Game 5 between Barcelona and Bayern. A home win for the Spanish powerhouse is offered at just 1.22 at the top. Should Andrea Trinchieri’s team pull off the sensation in Catalonia, the payout of 5.25 times the stakes beckons.
Despite this seemingly clear-cut starting position, Vladimir Lucic and Co. are by no means without a chance when they travel to the 1992 Olympic city. The outsiders have already won the second and fourth games in this series against the first-placed team in the regular season.
If the German champions of 2019 once again manage to conjure up the hard-hitting defence from their most recent duel, a successful prediction of a close run is quite conceivable between Barcelona and Bayern in Game 5.
Barcelona – Statistics & current form
In the regular season, FC Barcelona was able to distance all other teams in the Euroleague. With 21 wins from 28 games, the Catalans took first place after the main round and were therefore assigned the supposedly “easiest” opponent in these playoffs with the eighth-placed team from Munich.
However, the Blue-Red have now also noticed that in the play-offs, basketball is usually played in a completely different way and that especially the defensive players become more important. In none of the four matches so far in the quarter-finals against the German figurehead at European level could Barca score more than 77 points. Last Friday, the team of coach Sarunas Jasikevicius even had to settle for 52 points after 40 minutes of play – a low for this season!
Because in “do-or-die” games like the one on Tuesday night there are traditionally fewer points in total anyway and many actions will be characterised by nervousness, it is a first fitting approach to tip between Barcelona and Bayern in Game 5 that the favourite will once again stay below 80 points of their own.
Will Barca crumble again under the huge pressure?
The current weak quota from beyond the three-point line also speaks in favour of this. While the leader of the Spanish ACB (24:7 record) was still the most dangerous team from outside in the regular season with 41.3% and an average of more than nine made three-pointers, these numbers have dropped noticeably. Seven successful three-pointers as well as less than 30% shooting quota each correspond to the worst value of all eight teams in the playoffs.
So if Bayern coach Trinchieri manages to take away most of the Catalans’ drive to the basket and condense the zone, as he did in Game 4, it will be interesting to see what solutions Mirotic, Exum and Co. can come up with immediately from their hard drive. But it is a fact that a high victory with a difference of ten or more points is not to be expected.
Already in the past, the Jasikevicius team had problems several times to bring their best performance in important matches. It is quite possible that this trend will continue with the giants, who have not won a Spanish championship since 2013/14 and have not won an international title since 2010. Especially in view of the fact that Cory Higgins, the real go-to guy in crunch-time situations, has been out for a few weeks and will also miss the finale of this series.
Predicted Barcelona line-up:
PG: Nick Calathes
SG: Nicola Laprovittola
SF: Alex Abrines
PF: Nikola Mirotic
C: Sertac Sanli
Bayern – Statistics & current form
Last year, FC Bayern Basketball became the first German team in history to make it to the Euroleague Playoffs. In 2021/22, Andrea Trinchieri’s men would love to go one better and punch their ticket to the Final Four in Belgrade in mid-May for the first time. As eighth in the preliminary round, it would be a huge surprise if the German runners-up were to beat the title contenders from the Catalan metropolis in five games.
However, we have already seen in games two and four that the Munich team should by no means be underestimated. In the second meeting of this series, DeShaun Thomas and his colleagues shot the lights out in the Palau Blaugrana and won 90:75! Last Friday, the Bavarians finally put on a masterful defensive performance and kept the upper hand with 59:52.
Are Bayern still underestimated by the bookmakers?
The two defeats, meanwhile, came by ten and nine points respectively, which is why we still see promising value in the odds on the +9.5 handicap in favour of the underdog in Game 5 Barcelona v Bayern on Tuesday night.
Bayern have a number of players in their line-up who live for exactly such big games. Vlado Lucic has always been a crunch-time player, Ognen Jamaraz has also underlined in the past that he has nerves of steel and with Rubit, Hunter or Thomas, the front court also has enough international experience not to get shot out of the hall.
It is also positive to note that the Bavarians are so far superior to the big FC Barcelona in terms of rebounds (+15), produce fewer turnovers and also act consistently strong from the line. If these basics are right again this time, we are confident that the underdogs can at least keep the match open for a long time. Hilliard will not be available as well as Corey Walden. In return, substitute forward Nick Weiler-Babb is in top form, both offensively and defensively.
Predicted line-up of Bayern:
PG: Nick Weiler-Babb
SG: Nihad Dedovic
SF: Vladimir Lucic
PF: Deshaun Thomas
C: Leon Radosevic
Barcelona – Bayern Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
For the 15th time overall, the two clubs will face each other in the Basketball Euroleague. With nine wins and four losses, Barcelona leads the direct comparison. However, only four of these nine victories were achieved with a difference of ten points or more. Most of the time, the two teams have been on an equal footing.
This is also the case at the moment, because after four games in just under two weeks, Bayern have even scored three points more than FC Barcelona. The season series – taking into account the encounters in the main round – is 4:2 in favour of the Catalans, who, however, only won the first meeting in 2021/22 with a handicap of -9.5 points.
Barcelona – Bayern Tip
Basketball Germany is looking eagerly to Barcelona on Tuesday evening. In the play-off quarter-finals of the Euroleague, the Munich team can achieve something historic and become the first team from the BBL to make it into the top four teams in Europe. To do so, however, they have to win the decisive fifth game in the Palau Blaugrana and thus bring the series to 3:2.
Last season, Trinchieri’s side narrowly failed to beat Milan, also in five games. This time Bayern are desperate to make the most of their slim chance, although the bookmakers are drawing a devastating starting position for the German runners-up. Between Barcelona and Bayern, towering odds are offered on the away win, but this equally proves that the Munich side are performing above their expectations so far.
While we wouldn’t commit to Lucic and Co. actually making it to the Final Four, we definitely trust a close game in the series finale for the underdog. Therefore, we are betting on the visitors plus 9.5 points between Barcelona and Bayern in Game 5. So if the eighth-placed team in the main round loses by a maximum of nine points, our bet would go through.
The odds on Barcelona not scoring more than 79 points are also interesting. The clear favourite has not broken the 80-point mark in any of the four games so far. For particularly risk-averse bettors, it is even conceivable to place a bet on Bayern winning the first quarter. In the past, the Jasikevicius team has struggled time and again to put in a top performance under pressure in important games. Maybe this time too…
