Low scoring game with surprising ending?

The NFC South is like a well-travelled highway. However, the means of transport are not fast cars, but motorbikes throttled down to less than 50 hp. In fact, in the weakest of all divisions by far this NFL season, it’s a real slugfest for the only playoff spot that will go to the division winner.

In the middle of the pack are also the Atlanta Falcons, who are currently still in fourth and thus last place, but are also only one win behind the leader from Tampa Bay in the draw.

Their upcoming opponents from Baltimore, on the other hand, have almost punched their ticket to the postseason, but are currently without their quarterback Lamar Jackson. Since it is now clear that the superstar will also be missing in Week 16, the tip between the Ravens and the Falcons in the direction of the visitors is becoming increasingly important.

It must also be noted, however, that Atlanta will also have to do without playmaker Marcus Mariota and will throw a rookie into the deep end for the second time in a row in the form of Desmond Ridder.

Considering the fact that both teams have their strengths more on the defensive side of the ball and that the temperature is expected to drop significantly below zero on Saturday night, it might be worth considering a prediction of a sub-par performance before the Ravens’ clash against the Falcons. An offensive spectacle is definitely not expected.

Baltimore Ravens – Statistics & current form

The Ravens squandered their first match point to make the playoffs last weekend. Against the Cleveland Browns they suffered a 3:13 defeat, which could be attributed primarily to two things. Firstly, it became clear that Tyler Huntley cannot even begin to replace the injured Lamar Jackson at quarterback. On the other hand, Justin Tucker, probably the best kicker in the NFL, also lost his nerve twice.

The starting position has not changed much for head coach John Harbaugh’s team. Second in the AFC North with a record of nine wins and five losses, it should be a case of the proverbial devil if a play-off place does not emerge after Week 17. Just one win on Saturday night could be enough to clinch a place in the play-offs.

Baltimore relies on strong defence

Baltimore’s road to success could be rockier than expected, however, as Lamar Jackson will still be unable to play in Week 16 due to his knee injury. At least his backup Huntley should be available after he too was only able to train on a limited basis during the week. That the offensive power suffers from the absence of Lamar Jackson is obvious. The Atlanta defence can therefore prepare for a play-calling dominated by the running game.

Against this backdrop, it is even somewhat surprising that such low odds are being offered on a home win between the Ravens and the Falcons. We do not see such a pronounced role as favourite in this duel, although it should not be neglected that there are currently only a few defensive lines in the NFL that are better than the one from Baltimore.

Harbaugh’s team does not allow an average of 19 points (fourth in the league). However, defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback Marcus Peters are also missing important players due to injury. Will the Ravens, who have scored a maximum of 16 points in four of their last five matches but still left the field as winners in three of them, really have to fear for the wild-card spot?

Predicted Baltimore Ravens lineup:
QB: Tyler Huntley, RB: JK Dobbins, WR: Demarcus Robinson, TE: Mark Andrews, K: Justin Tucker

Atlanta Falcons – stats & current form

Although the Atlanta Falcons have only managed to win five of their 14 matches so far this season, there is still hope as they look ahead to the post-season. Currently, coach Arthur Smith’s team is even given a chance of around 4% to make the NFL playoffs.

The prerequisite is probably three wins against the Ravens, the Cardinals and finally in a direct duel against the Bucs.

Has Ridder learned from his debut?

The only annoyance is that the men from the capital of the state of Georgia have to do without their quarterback Marcus Mariota. Although Mariota didn’t play an outstanding season until his knee injury, he at least had the necessary experience at the quarterback position to avoid being eaten up by opposing pass rushers.

For the remainder of the season, regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not, rookie Desmond Ridder now takes the reins. The 23-year-old, who was drafted in the third round of the draft, quickly found out in his starting debut that the NFL is a different place than the NCAA. Ridder completed just half of his passes (13 of 26). He didn’t throw for 100 yards and ended up with a weak QB rating of less than 60 points. It’s quite possible that because of him, the odds on the two-way market are swinging so heavily in favour of the home side ahead of the Ravens’ game against the Falcons.

The running game as a strength – offensively and defensively

However, the calculation should not be made without the host. The host in this case is the Falcons’ defence, which has made quite an impression recently and has strengths especially against the run.

The two running backs Patterson and Allgeier are finding their top form more and more, which is why we believe Atlanta has the potential to surprise on the one hand and wouldn’t be surprised if Tyler Allgeier scored a touchdown on the other. The rookie single-handedly ran for almost 140 yards the previous week. Value tip is therefore an Allgeier TD at top odds of 3.50 at the top.

Predicted Atlanta Falcons lineup:
QB: Desmond Ridder, RB: Tyler Allgeier, WR: Drake London, TE: Parker Hesse, K: Younghoe Koo

Baltimore Ravens – Atlanta Falcons Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

The head-to-head can be safely disregarded as both teams are based in different conferences and therefore meet only irregularly. The last direct duel took place in 2018 and went 26:16 to the Ravens. In general, Baltimore has won five of the past six meetings. However, Tyler Huntley and Desmond Ridder have also never faced each other at quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens – Atlanta Falcons Tip

Consciously, we waited a little longer with our Ravens vs. Falcons prediction because until a few days ago, it was not clear whether Lamar Jackson might return or continue to be out. In the meantime, it has become clear that the Baltimore playmaker will not be able to play again.

The betting odds on a home win have promptly risen slightly ahead of the Ravens’ clash against the Falcons. However, the odds are still in a range that we do not consider one hundred percent comprehensible. We don’t see Atlanta as such a gross underdog on Christmas Eve.

On the one hand, we argue that a lot can happen in the duel of two inexperienced quarterbacks – Huntley vs. Ridder – and on the other hand we refer to the defensive strengths of both teams, which in combination with the expected weather will rather lead to a low-scoring match.

Accordingly, it is rather unlikely that Baltimore will land a big win, which is why we have decided to play a bet between the Ravens and the Falcons that the visitors will lose by a maximum of five points.