In the Melbourne quarterfinals, the world No. 2 will face the American he has beaten in their last eight meetings

They say that to break a curse, you must first rely on reason and a change of perspective. Well, Ben Shelton has recently tried to do both. Especially since he likely wasn’t smiling after discovering that the Melbourne draw could pit him against Sinner yet again. A nemesis, a player who hasn’t conceded a single set to him in over two years. So the American shared his strategies for closing the gap on Jannik a few days ago, after his victory over Vacherot: “I’m making some changes; I’m doing everything perfectly. I feel I’m capable of greater changes of pace with my backhand and more precision with my serve and forehand. And then when I play on a stage like this, I get fired up.” Sinner, too, no doubt.

Big Ben wants to say Stop. Stop the bleeding—not just of losses, but also of sets lost to the Italian. The current Sinner-Shelton record stands at 8-1. The American had plenty of chances last season to write a different story: four head-to-head matches, from the first Grand Slam of the year to the Turin Finals. Yet he came up short in all four instances, never taking a single set. And yet, in 2025, Shelton achieved the first major breakthrough of his career: a stable top-10 ranking, his debut at the Finals, but above all his first 1000-level title, in Canada. As he himself admitted after his victory in the Melbourne round of 16 against Ruud, “I’ve become a fighter; I feel like I’ve grown. And I have no intention of stopping the process here.” Sinner will be the barometer of his growth, just like last year.

Good luck charm?—  Yes, because when the Italian has crossed rackets with Ben, he has often turned up the heat and never looked back. Shelton has long since become his lucky charm: in fact, on the last five occasions, after a victory against the American, Sinner went on to win the title. It happened in Shanghai 2024 and then in every match last year: the Australian Open semifinals, the Wimbledon quarterfinals, the quarterfinals at the Paris 1000, and the round-robin stage at the Turin Finals. One Italian victory after another, even though we’re talking about an opponent Jannik always takes with a grain of salt. Because as he said at Indian Wells a couple of years ago, before their third meeting: “He serves well, he has a great touch. He plays a good forehand and backhand. And then he’s left-handed…” Not only that: Shelton is no longer an outsider in the upper echelons of the rankings, but someone who, for at least two seasons now, has been poised to shift into high gear sooner or later and race toward the Big Two to turn them into the Big Three. In 2025, he gave a small taste of that, but now he needs a major breakthrough. Like that time in Shanghai.
how many tiebreaks—  True, at first Sinner didn’t seem like he’d be a thorn in the American’s side. In fact, in China, Ben surprisingly came out on top: in the 2023 edition, he took it home in the third-set tiebreak. Speaking of which: 6-6 has become a sensational routine in their matches, given that in 8 of their 9 encounters, they’ve reached that score at least once. The only time it didn’t work for the Italian? In Paris a few months ago: there, Sinner closed it out with a 6-3, 6-3 victory. So yes, it’s true that Shelton is someone to be taken with a grain of salt: systematically taking Jannik to a tiebreak is, after all, a rare feat.

precision and ruthlessness—  Shelton has often been guilty of inaccuracy in his matches against the Italian: his powerful left-hander has at times become uncontrollable even for him, when faced with Sinner’s quiet strength, who has often sensed his lapses in concentration to punish him at the most crucial moments. As in Shanghai 2024: 7 break points conceded by the South Tyrolean, all saved. On the other side of the net: one break point conceded by Ben, promptly turned into gold by Jannik. A surgeon’s precision, worthy of a champion. Another masterclass at Wimbledon six months ago, this time showcasing precision: Sinner committed 17 unforced errors throughout the match, while Shelton had more than double that (38). Same story at the last Australian Open: 26 unforced errors by Jannik, 55 by the American, who started running on empty after the first hard-fought set (which lasted 72 minutes and ended in a tiebreak). It is from details like these that he must start over to bridge a gap that is anything but trivial. He knows this well and is thinking about it without stress: “With Sinner, it’s a match where you expect nothing less. Last year in Melbourne, I didn’t do so well against him. But I guarantee you, I’ve worked hard.” We’ll see.