Can the Nullfünfer keep up well in the Breisgau?
While the 1st FSV Mainz 05 failed to pull off the surprise and the Nullfünfer lost 4-0 to Bayern in the cup during the week, SC Freiburg advanced to the round of 16 with a 2-1 home win over Hamburger SV. The Black Forest team’s form in the Bundesliga is also improving, which is why the tip for the home win for Freiburg against Mainz seems to be a fundamentally good choice. After all, the sports club has not lost to the zero-five team in six Bundesliga games (two wins, four draws).
However, the Rhine Hessians also have an impressive record. The red-and-whites have not lost a single one of their last seven Bundesliga away games (three wins, four draws). Accordingly, it would be risky to make a prediction in Freiburg against Mainz that categorically excludes the guests from winning a point, especially since Bo Henriksen’s team has always scored at least three goals in their last four Bundesliga away games.
However, Mainz are now traveling to one of the Bundesliga’s strongest home teams. Julian Schuster has made the Sport-Club a force to be reckoned with at home again. After four Bundesliga home games, the new coach already has one more home win under his belt (three) than in the last 13 home games under Christian Streich (only two). In addition, the FSV do not like playing on Sundays. On this day of the week, the Nullfünfer have not won any of their last 13 Bundesliga games (seven draws, six defeats).
Because we are not expecting too many goals, it therefore makes a lot of sense to bet on the combined tip for double chance 1X at under 3.5 goals, which at least does not categorically rule out a draw.
Freiburg vs. Mainz forecast AI
In its Freiburg vs. Mainz AI prediction, the BETSiE supercomputer locates the greatest value in the tip for the home win of the Black Forest team. Odds of 1.74, which we found in the Intertops sports betting line-up, suggest that the Breisgau team has a 57.5 percent chance of winning. In contrast, the AI BETSIE puts the probability of a home win for the team from Baden-Württemberg at 59.5 percent, which is exactly two percent higher.
In view of the fact that the BETSiE predicts an 82.4 percent probability that the double chance 1X will come true, while the expected goal value calculated by the AI for Freiburg is 1.7 9 and that of Mainz at 0.85, the supercomputer also sees a lot of value in our suggestion to try the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals.
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
Since it was announced that Christian Streich would step down this summer, more than a few supporters have been very concerned about the future of SC Freiburg. However, there was no real reason for such fears. After eight match days, only Bayern and RB Leipzig (20 each) have scored more points than the sports club (15).
Three of the first four Bundesliga home games were won (one defeat) under Streich’s successor Julian Schuster. This corresponds to one more victory than in the last 13 home games in the top division of German football under the legendary Christian Streich (two wins, seven draws, four defeats).
Freiburg with strong series against Mainz
The Black Forest team is well prepared for this Sunday’s game after also securing their place in the last 16 of the DFB Cup against Hamburger SV during the week (2:1). The odds are therefore remarkably clear in Freiburg’s favor against Mainz, who have not lost to FSV in six Bundesliga games (two wins, four draws).
It is certainly an advantage that SCF’s tall defensive line defends resting balls and crosses so effectively. Alongside 1. FC Heidenheim, Freiburg is the only Bundesliga club in 2024/25 not to have conceded a single headed goal in the league – precisely the discipline in which the guests from Rhineland-Palatinate are leading. After all, no other Bundesliga club has scored more headed goals in the first eight match days than the Rhine Hessians (five times).
Mainz – Statistics & current form
1. FSV Mainz 05 had an overall mixed start to the season and, with nine out of a possible 24 points, are in 13th place in the table. The discrepancy between home and away games is striking. While the Nullfünfer have yet to win at home (two draws, three defeats) and, above all, have scored only three goals, they are ranked fifth in the away table.
In all three away games in the 2024/25 season, Bo Henriksen’s team scored three goals, taking seven out of a possible nine points away from home. That’s another reason why the tip for a home win by Freiburg against Mainz should not be given too lightly.
Mainz doesn’t like Sunday games
However, the only remaining Bundesliga club from Rhineland-Palatinate is not traveling to the Breisgau in particularly strong form. The FSV has only won one of its last five competitive games (one draw, three defeats) – a 3-0 win at promoted St. Pauli. In their three most recent defeats, however, the red and whites have not even scored a single goal.
Even in the midweek DFB Cup game against Bayern (4-0 loss), the team from Mainz were largely without a chance, and the scheduling of the game now also works against them. On Sundays, Mainz have not won any of their last 13 league games in the top flight of German football (seven draws, six defeats) and have only picked up seven out of a possible 39 points during this period.
Freiburg – Mainz Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 16 – 15 – 17
A total of 48 encounters have taken place between the two teams so far and the direct comparison reads very evenly overall. Most recently, however, the Black Forest team has been in control of the match, and they are currently unbeaten in six Bundesliga games against Mainz 05 (two wins, four draws).
Freiburg – Mainz betting tip
In view of the fact that the Rhine Hessians have not lost in seven Bundesliga away games (three wins, four draws), the betting odds of the top betting providers for our taste are a bit too clearly in the direction of the Black Forest team at Freiburg against Mainz. Although Julian Schuster has made the sports club a force to be reckoned with at home again, it could be an expensive mistake to rule out the possibility of the Rhine Hessians at least getting a draw in the Breisgau.
Because we basically do not expect that the Rheinhessen will score again on the road, but rather expect a low-scoring game, our prediction for the combined tip on the double chance 1X at under 3.5 goals goes to Freiburg against Mainz.
