Do the Reds need another start-up time?

It is well known beyond all national borders that Jürgen Klopp has a very special relationship with referees. Last weekend, however, his resentment towards the referees was perfectly understandable, as a human error at the VAR meant that what should have been a regulation 1-0 in the away game at Tottenham was disallowed.

Although the officials have since been punished for their grave error, it did LFC no good as a last-minute own goal saw the Reds lose out in London for the first time in this competitive season.

The aim now is to put this minor setback behind them as quickly as possible and return to winning ways on the European stage on Thursday evening. The chances of this happening are good, as odds of just over 1.20 are being offered for a home win in the Liverpool vs. Royale Union SG clash on the second Europa League matchday. The probability of victory for the Premier League top team is thus around 80%.

Liverpool – Statistics & current form

In their ninth competitive game of the season, Liverpool FC conceded their first defeat last weekend. We have already reported on the “most unfair circumstances and craziest decisions”, as Jürgen Klopp titled them in the aftermath of the match, in the introduction. Although the Reds questioned the “integrity of the sport” in a press release published a day later, van Dijk and Co. could easily have taken a point at Spurs even when shorthanded if a cross from the right had not been deflected into their own goal by Joel Matip in injury time.

However, there is not much time to mourn the events, because the Scousers have challenging tasks ahead of them with the home game against Royale Union St. Gilloise and the following away game in Brighton before the next international break. At least on Thursday evening, the Klopp team cannot be denied the role of favourites. Between Liverpool and Royale Union SG, the odds on a home win actually only become interesting when you play them with a handicap (-1/-2).

Klopp puts great emphasis on load control

However, it should definitely be taken into account that the German coach already spared some key players in the first group game at LASK. Alisson Becker was replaced by backup Kelleher, Mo Salah was on the bench until minute 74, while Robertson, Gakpo or Diogo Jota did not play at all. As a result, the English side found it harder than expected in Linz and needed a significant improvement in the second half to turn a 1-0 half-time deficit into a 3-1 victory.

Looking at the season so far, it was by no means a novelty that the Reds had to chase a deficit. In the matches at Newcastle United (2-1), Wolverhampton (3-1) and at home against West Ham (3-1), LFC conceded the first goal of the game, but then fought back in impressive style.

The 2019 Champions League winners have scored 15 of their 22 league goals after the break. That’s exactly what our betting recommendations are based on. For two or more Reds goals in the second half, for example, Interwetten offers a proud 1.95. We have no doubts about the chances of victory for the Premier League club, which is stronger in terms of quality, as Liverpool have only lost one of their 21 Europa League home games at Anfield so far (15 wins, five draws). In fact, LFC have won seven consecutive European Cups in the group stage. Number eight should be added on Thursday.

Predicted Liverpool line-up:

FC Liverpool (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Royal Union SG – Statistics & current form

Union St. Gilloise have only been represented in the highest football league in Belgium for three years. As a newcomer, the Blue and Yellows were runners-up in 2021/22, which earned them a place in last year’s Champions League qualifiers. However, they were eliminated in the third round by Glasgow Rangers, but still made it to the quarter-finals of the Europa League, where they were eliminated by Bayer Leverkusen.

Despite the fact that some key players – Victor Boniface, Teddy Teuma, Siebe van der Heyden and Senne Lynen – are leaving the club in the summer, the traditional club, which is now firmly among the top teams in Belgium, is hoping for a similarly successful performance on the international stage in 2023/24. In the play-offs, Lugano were beaten in both legs without conceding a goal. The first group match in Toulouse ended in a half-satisfactory 1-1 draw.

Union St. Gilloise don’t want to hide

But if you now think that the team of German coach Alexander Blessin, who is back in Belgium after a brief interlude in Italy, will travel to Anfield Road fearful, you might be mistaken. Royale Union are taking a bold, brash and attack-minded approach, but one that is likely to be modified somewhat due to the particular gravity of the mission at the Mersey.

Especially in the first 45 minutes, we expect a compact basic order and assume that the Belgians want to stay without conceding a goal for as long as possible. That, in turn, would suggest a prediction of a maximum of one goal in the first half between Liverpool and Royale Union SG.

However, the underdogs from the Brussels-Capital Region should definitely not lack self-confidence. On the one hand, because last year’s third-placed team is currently leading the league standings and has won six of nine matches with a goal difference of 18:12. On the other hand, the Blue and Yellows did not lose any of their five Europa League away matches last season. In the 2022/23 EL group stage, there were even three victories in three away games to celebrate.

Predicted line-up of Royale Union SG:

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (Expected line-up) 3-4-3

Liverpool – Royale Union SG Direct comparison / H2H balance

Little surprisingly, the two clubs face each other for the first time in a competitive match on Thursday night. The only two meetings for Royale Union SG against English teams were lost to Birmingham City nearly 70 years ago. Liverpool have so far won 12 of 15 European ties against clubs from Belgium (two draws, one defeat). However, that only defeat is also a good 40 years in the past.

Liverpool – Royale Union SG Tip

Liverpool Football Club are certainly among the hottest title aspirants in the Europa League, but first the Reds have to fulfil a number of compulsory tasks in the group stage. One of these is the home match against last year’s quarter-finalists from Saint Gilles. Similar to the away win at LASK, it can be assumed that coach Jürgen Klopp will change his starting eleven in some positions compared to the last Premier League match.

This could result in LFC starting the game a bit inhibited, needing a bit of time to find solutions or perhaps even falling behind again. At the latest with the start of the second half, however, we expect the usual dominant Klopp eleven, who have scored 15 of their 22 must-win goals this season after the break. Still, a three-way bet on Liverpool vs Royale Union SG is not advised given the odds, which only just exceed 1.20.

We have therefore opted to place a bet between Liverpool and Royale Union SG on more goals being scored in the second half than in the first.