Can the Belarusian thwart the teenager’s home win?
It didn’t take much for the first all-American women’s singles final at the US Open since 2017, when Sloane Stephens beat Madison Keys to become the last American US Open winner to date. After Coco Gauff had already successfully booked her ticket to the final in the first semifinal, Madison Keys was unable to close the bag against Aryna Sabalenka, against whom she was already leading 6-0 and 5-3. In the end, the Belarusian turned the match around. According to the betting providers, the bet on Coco Gauff against Aryna Sabalenka is now also more favorable for this year’s Australian Open winner
Coco Gauff has also been in a Grand Slam final before, but she was unable to do anything against Iga Swiatek at the 2022 French Open. The American went down 0:2 (1:6 and 3:6), but now she will get another chance. The already popular teenager is guaranteed to have the entire crowd on her side in her home country, which could well be a factor in Coco Gauff’s prediction against Aryna Sabalenka.
In principle, we think the assessment of the betting providers, who see the Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka as the favorite, is accurate. However, it is not impossible that Coco Gauff will win at home. A very interesting bet in this context is that the Belarusian will win a maximum of twelve games. On the one hand, this covers most of the constellations in which Aryna Sabalenka wins 2-0, but also many constellations in which the American has the upper hand in the end.
Coco Gauff – statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 6
Position in the seedings: 6
The American Coco Gauff, who is only 19 years old, has already won five singles titles on the WTA Tour. Two of these five titles go back to this year’s US Open Series. She first won the Washington Open on August 6, 2023, before going on to win the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati exactly 14 days later.
It was the very first major title for the teenager, who traveled to New York City with a corresponding amount of momentum. With six wins over, among others, Laura Siegemund, Elise Mertens, Caroline Wozniacki, Jelena Ostapenko and, most recently, Karolina Muchova, she is now in the grand final at Flushing Meadows for the first time.
Mental strength and stable second serve
In all, it’s the second Grand Slam final for Coco Gauff. While the 19-year-old paid a lot of dues in the final of the French Open 2022, she naturally wants to take advantage of the big opportunity this time. She also proved to be very strong nerves.
After her semifinal against this year’s French Open finalist Karolina Muchova was interrupted for around 50 minutes due to a protest by climate activists, she then left no stone unturned. What stood out was her extremely stable second serve, which she used to score 67% of the time.
Won 44 of 57 singles matches in 2023
In total, this puts the American at 44 wins from 57 completed singles matches this year. One of her 13 losses, however, was to her opponent in the final, whom the 19-year-old lost 2-0 on hard court in Indian Wells in the spring (4-6, 0-6).
Against this background, Coco Gauff is also listed as a slight underdog against Aryna Sabalenka according to the bookmakers’ odds. The hearts of the public will nevertheless fly to the teenager from Delray Beach, who could now become the first American US Open winner since Sloane Stephens (2017).
Aryna Sabalenka – statistics & current form
Current position in the world ranking: 2
Position in the seedings: 2
The 25-year-old Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka became the first player since Serena Williams (2016) to achieve the feat of reaching at least the semifinals in all four Grand Slam tournaments in one season.
After winning the Australian Open 2023, the player from Minsk reached the semifinals of the French Open 2023 and Wimbledon 2023. Now the new world number one, who at the end of the tournament will be the 29th player in history to top the WTA world rankings and succeeds Iga Swiatek, who failed in the round of 16, is back in the grand final at the US Open 2023.
Won 50 of 60 singles matches in 2023
In what was a crazy semifinal, it already looked like the 25-year-old was out, going down 6-0 to Madison Keys in the first set and already trailing 5-3 in the second. However, she still forced the deciding set, which ultimately also went into a tiebreak.
Curiously, the Belarussian did not know the rule that the decider is played to ten and was already jubilant at 7:3. However, the fact that Aryna Sabalenka was able to regain her composure immediately and finish the match in a serious manner (10:5) is also a quality. Overall, it was already the 50th singles win in the 60th match in 2023.
13 consecutive wins in hard court Grand Slam tournaments
In hard-court Grand Slam tournaments, meanwhile, there have been as many as 13 consecutive victories on record for the Belarusian, who has dropped just two sets in total during those 13 wins. The betting on Coco Gauff against Aryna Sabalenka that the designated world number one will now win her second Grand Slam title is correspondingly consistent.
However, the Minsk player is behind in the direct comparison. Although Sabalenka beat the young Gauff outright 2-0 in Indian Wells this March, as mentioned earlier, the 25-year-old has won just two of her five singles matches against the teenager so far.
Coco Gauff – Aryna Sabalenka Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 3:2
There have been a total of five meetings between the two players so far and with three wins, Coco Gauff leads the head-to-head comparison by a narrow margin. However, the only duel in 2023 went very clearly to Aryna Sabalenka, who also beat the American 2-0 in the quarterfinals of Indian Wells in the United States of America (6:4 and 6:0).
Coco Gauff – Aryna Sabalenka Tip
Quite easily, the betting odds on Coco Gauff against Aryna Sabalenka swing in the direction of the Belarusian, who has had an absolutely exceptional year and will be logged in as the new world number one regardless of the outcome of Monday’s final. The Australian Open winner has also won 13 consecutive singles matches at Grand Slam tournaments on hard court and stands with an annual tally of 50 wins from 60 matches. However, she is trailing Coco Gauff 3-2 in head-to-head matches.
With Coco Gauff against Aryna Sabalenka, it is very consistent to predict that the Belarussian will win a maximum of twelve games. That would not only be fulfilled in most 2-0 wins of the odds-on favorite, but also in many constellations where the American actually gets the home win.
