Do de Blues force a Game 7?
Never underestimate the heart of a champion. That’s true for the St. Louis Blues, because even though it seems a long time away again, the Blues didn’t stand on top until 2019, when they hoisted the Stanley Cup. And there are still numerous players from the team of that time who still play in St. Louis.
So it’s not all that surprising that they are difficult to knock out of the playoffs. Even a 3-0 lead in Game 5 wasn’t enough for the Avalanche, which should either make them nervous or spur them on even more now.
Now it’s time to see what the Avs players are made of, because a setback like that in your own arena is something you have to deal with as a player. Nevertheless, we expect them to succeed.
They have had to deal with some disappointments in the last few years and they should have learned from that. Besides, they are still leading 3-2 and have it in their own hands. So for Blues vs. Avalanche, our prediction for Game 6 is an away win for Colorado, even if it could be close.
St. Louis Blues – Statistics & current form
1:3 down in the series and then 0:3 after 24 minutes of Game 6 away in Denver. It took a lot of imagination to think the Blues had anything left. But there was someone who still believed in them: themselves.
There is no other way to explain what happened on Wednesday night and that the Blues finally saved themselves into a Game 6 after all. But how many arrows and, more importantly, energy do they have left in their quiver now?
It all depends on their efficiency
With their regular goalie Binnington still out, they’re always conceding at least four goals a game at the back right now since backup Husso has been in goal. This means they only have a chance of winning if they score over 4.5 goals up front, as happened on Wednesday.
However, this tactic cannot go on forever. Especially when they have fewer shots on goal than their opponent game after game (20:37 in Game 4, 30:34 in Game 5). That they manage an almost 17% scoring rate like in Game 5 is hardly likely in the long run.
Who takes control?
So somehow the Blues have to manage to take control on the ice again. They only managed to do this to some extent in Game 3, even though they lost that one in the end. Puck control is the magic word here.
Game 6 at least gives hope in this respect, as they only gave away five give-aways – a very good value. If they manage that again, they have their chance, although we still favour the odds on the Avs for St. Louis vs. Colorado. We just can’t see them losing twice in a row.
Key Players:
G: Ville Husso
D: Nick Leddy
D: Colton Parayko
LW: Brayden Schenn
C: Ryan O’Rielly
RW: David Perron
Colorado Avalanche – Statistics & current form
The Avs were too sure of themselves Wednesday after taking a 3-0 lead. There’s no other way to explain why they squandered the lead in their own arena and had to travel to St. Louis again. They could have spared themselves this effort.
If they have another lapse now, it will come down to a Game 7, where, as we all know, anything can happen. So do the Avs really still have to shake and that after a 3:1 series lead? In NHL history, that lead has only been squandered 31 times ever.
Avs shutout hardly conceivable
It still sounds very unlikely though, as they haven’t lost two games in a row in the entire postseason. That gives them something in common with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which incidentally is still our expected Stanley Cup pairing.
Betting on a Lightning vs. Avalanche Stanley Cup Final is therefore recommended at this point. For that to happen, however, the Avs will have to put away their recklessness, preferably as early as Game 6 now in St. Louis. They are also only 10th in the postseason in face-offs at 49.1%.
Avalanche still statistically superior
However, these two points are also the only ones where we can see weaknesses in the Avs game. All other statistics are clearly in their favour. For example, they score more goals than the Blues (4.44 to 3.46) and concede fewer (2.78 to 3.18).
This results in a total advantage of 1.38 goals per game, which also roughly corresponds to the balance of power. Thus, anything other than recommending a bet on Colorado in Blues vs Avs would be far too high a risk.
Key Players:
G: Darcy Kuemper
D: Devon Toews
D: Cale Makar
LW: Valeri Nichuskin
C: Nathan MacKinnon
RW: Mikko Rantanen
St. Louis Blues – Colorado Avalanche Direct comparison / H2H-balance
The Blues’ win on Wednesday was only the second playoff win in their history against the Avalanche. Still, they are 2-8 from their perspective in that record. Excitingly, they have never won at home against the Avs in a postseason game.
Overall, home ice advantage is not really an advantage in this series. The home team is 1-4, which is mainly due to the added pressure of having to win the home games. That speaks more in favour of the Avs again on Friday.
For St. Louis against Colorado, the odds on the Avalanche are also still so good that we consider betting per Avs on a success without overtime as betting option No. 1. However, a slight handicap would also still be within the realm of possibility.
St. Louis Blues – Colorado Avalanche Tip
The Avs were exactly one minute away from the Conference Finals, then Robert Thomas hit them right in the heart with his equaliser. That should give them extra motivation and they won’t lose a second game in a row.
At least that hasn’t happened to them yet this postseason. St. Louis’ home advantage is also obsolete in this series, which is why we clearly favour a tip on the away team for Blues vs. Avalanche.
Nathan MacKinnon scored a hat trick in Game 5 and has finally arrived in the series. So betting on the Avs star to score is also a nice betting option with decent value.
