Will Montenegro cause the next surprise?

It has already been speculated in the run-up that the team with the fewest positive PCR tests in its ranks will become European handball champions. But perhaps the teams that had to isolate their players early on, but have since been able to fall back on some of their players, like the Croats before their first main round match against Montenegro, are also in a good position.

The fact that the Montenegrins are still in the race at all is the positive surprise of the first group phase. No one would have expected this team to make it to the main round, but after wins over North Macedonia and Slovenia, they finished second behind world champions Denmark. Of course, they won’t take any points with them into the second group phase.

The Croats, despite the most adverse circumstances, also finished second, behind Olympic champions France. Despite numerous absences, even the handball journalists from Croatia can hardly list the current squad, Hrvatska performed well in the preliminary round.

Montenegro will be proud to now play another four international matches against top teams. The Croats didn’t take any points into the main round either, but are still flirting with the semifinals. For now, however, we’ll stick to the current match, and we’re leaning towards a tip on Hrvatska between Montenegro and Croatia.

Montenegro – Statistics & current form

Montenegro, like so many other teams, were not spared positive test results and isolated players at the European Handball Championship. Coach Zoran Roganovic was also affected, so that the team had to be coached by the federation’s sports director in the meantime. On Thursday, however, Roganovic is expected to be back on the bench.

As underdogs into the main round

In the last six months, the Montenegro team has only played against lower-ranked teams from Africa and has not been able to play a single test match in preparation for the European Championship. Add to that quarantine and injuries, and nobody would have put a penny on this team, at least not when it came to qualifying for the main round.

Then the European Championship started with the expected defeat against Denmark and everything seemed to go as planned. In the second group match, however, Zoran Roganovic’s team beat North Macedonia 28:24 and perhaps it was foreseeable then that there would be a crunch against the strong Slovenians on the last matchday.

A draw against Slovenia would be enough for Montenegro, that much was clear. At the break, however, the Montenegrins were trailing 16:19 and their chances seemed to dwindle when the Slovenians were four goals away in the meantime. But Montenegro came back, led by the strong Branko Vujovic, and won 33:32 in the end. This means that the Montenegrins have already won more games at this European Championship than at all previous European Championships together.

The squad of Montenegro:
Goal: Matovic, Mijuskovic, Braunovic
Back: Glendza, Cepic, Kaluderovic, Andelic, Simic, Nikolic, Dragasevic, Vujovic, Sevaljevic, Bozovic, B. Vujovic, Vukicevic
Left wing: F. Vujovic, Abramovic
Right wing: Cejovic, Vukic
Circle: Lazovic, Simovic, L. Vujovic, Corsovic, Grbovic
Coach: Roganovic

Last matches played by Montenegro:

European Championships Preliminary Round Grp. A
01/17 2022 – Montenegro 33 – 32 Slovenia

01/15 2022 – North Macedonia 24 – 28 Montenegro

01/13 2022 – Denmark 30 – 21 Montenegro

European Championships Qualification Grp. 8
05/02 2021 – Montenegro 23 – 19 Romania

04/30 2021 – Montenegro 22 – 34 Sweden

Croatia – Statistics & current form

It’s hard to get a read on which players will be available for the Croats on Thursday. Positive and negative test results alternate. In addition, there are a whole series of players who have been called up and have joined the squad in the meantime. Which formation Hrvatska will be able to field on Thursday will once again be decided at very short notice.

Croatia defies the circumstances

But the Croats are doing really well at the European Championship so far. Already in the preparation Hrvatska had to put up with some setbacks and that continued in Szeged when they lost 22:27 to France in the opener, albeit after a great fight. At that point, we wouldn’t have bet on the Croats making it to the Intermediate Round.

But Luka Cindric returned against Serbia and coach Hrvoje Horvat pulled a playmaker out of the hat in Tin Lucin, who has been brilliant in the games so far. This is how the Croatians managed to advance to the main round in relative comfort after defeating Serbia and Ukraine.

Before the kick-off between Montenegro and Croatia, however, we are not predicting that Hrvatska will make it to the semifinals. This is mainly because a man like Domagoj Duvnjak cannot be replaced. Because the Kieler’s back complaint could not be treated during the quarantine, he has now been completely dropped from the Croatian line-up.

The squad of Croatia:
Goal: Pesic, M. Mandic, Sunjic
Back: Lucin, Gadza, Cindric, Mamic, Jaganjac, Srna, Ivic, Martinovic
Left wing: Mihic, D. Mandic
Right wing: Cupic, Glavas
Circle: Grahovac, Susnja, Sipic
Coach: Horvat

Last matches of Croatia:

European Championships Preliminary Round Grp. C
01/17 2022 – Ukraine 25 – 38 Croatia

01/15 2022 – Croatia 23 – 20 Serbia

01/13 2022 – Croatia 22 – 27 France

Friendlies
01/08 2022 – Croatia 26 – 28 Russia

01/07 2022 – Croatia 30 – 24 Russia

Montenegro – Croatia Direct comparison / H2H balance

Since the 2008 European Championship, the national teams from Montenegro and Croatia have crossed paths nine times. The numbers of the direct comparison are not surprising, as Hrvatska is 8:1 ahead after victories. There has not yet been a draw between the two neighbours in this period.

The last encounter took place two years ago in the preliminary round of the European Championship. The Croats were in commanding form and won 27:21 in the end. Luka Cindric was the top scorer for Hrvatska with six goals. Nemanja Grbovic was also successful for Montenegro with six goals.

Montenegro – Croatia tip

It is probably already the peak of creativity that the team from Montenegro has reached at the European Championship. In the previous European Championship participations, it was enough for a total of only one victory. In Hungary, Zoran Roganovic’s team has now already celebrated two victories. Even if the Montenegrins are optimistic now, they are unlikely to score in the main round.

We see the Croats as the clear favourites on Thursday. Luka Cindric seems to find his old strength again after his isolation and Joker Tin Lucin stings.

Generally, the Croats are stronger than the Montenegrins. The direct comparison with recent 8:1 victories underlines this thesis. Probably another Croatian victory will be added on Thursday. In any case, we have decided to play the betting odds on a Croatian handicap win (-3.5) between Montenegro and Croatia