Does Bully Boy Smith fail against his fearful opponent?
The first day of the new year already delivered numerous sporting highlights. Manchester City won at Arsenal FC in the last second and Markus Eisenbichler missed the victory in the Four Hills Tournament by a hair’s breadth. However, there was even more excitement at the 2022 Darts World Cup, where both evening matches went down to the deciding set.
The action continues on Sunday evening in Alexandra Palace. Then the two semi-finals are on the programme. The first match will be between Michael Smith and James Wade. According to the odds the bookmakers are pretty sure that the “Bully Boy” will enter the final for the second time in his career. At the top there is just 1.44 for the success of the 31-year-old Englishman, who threw defending champion Gerwyn Price out of the tournament on Saturday.
Not least because of that it is understandable that between Smith and Wade a prediction on the defeater of the world number one is considered more likely. However, it should give pause for thought that “The Machine” did not drop a single set in his quarter-final against Merwyn King and generally stands for a completely different rhythm than power scorer Smith. With this in mind, there is perhaps something to be said for a competitive and long match.
Michael Smith – Statistics & current form
Hardly anyone would have thought Michael Smith would make it to the semi-finals in the run-up to this World Cup. Although people knew about the class of the “Bully Boy”, the difficult draw with early matches against Jonny Clayton and Gerwyn Price as well as the not optimal year 2021 did not necessarily indicate that the 31-year-old Englishman is one of four remaining professionals who can secure the title tomorrow.
If we look at the odds for the overall winner before the semi-final between Michael Smith and James Wade, the married family man has even played himself into the top favourite role in the meantime. The 2019 finalist’s World Championship triumph is thus considered more likely than a Peter Wright or a Gary Anderson winning the title.
Does Wade’s pace seal the end for the “Bully Boy”?
This assessment is of course primarily due to the two matches against Clayton and Price, in which Smith put his A-game on the board and twice won the deciding set. Averages around 100 and a total of 27 180s underline the impressive form which rightly makes the “Bully Boy” the favourite for the final round.
But: The match against James Wade will by no means be a sure-fire success, because despite all the justified euphoria it has to be taken into account that the pace of his opponents played perfectly into the rhythm of the right-hander. They practically rocked themselves up to absolute high performances. Exactly the opposite we expect now against the slower playing and moreover ice-cold on stage James Wade. Therefore, we do not rule out that Smith, after two highlights at this World Cup, will need longer to bring his best performance to the oche this time.
Consequently, it may well be an option to bet on Smith against Wade that the supposed underdog will lose by a narrower margin than expected. As a reminder, the current world number nine only celebrated an outright victory in his 3-0 win over Ron Meulenkamp in the first round. In the other matches, the Englishman lost at least two sets and twice went into a decider. So it’s quite possible that James Wade will also win four sets in the best-of-11-sets-mode
Last matches of Michael Smith:
World Darts Championship
01/02 2022 – Michael Smith 6 – 3 James Wade
01/01 2022 – Gerwyn Price 4 – 5 Michael Smith
12/29 2021 – Jonny Clayton 3 – 4 Michael Smith
12/27 2021 – Michael Smith 4 – 2 William O’Connor
12/21 2021 – Michael Smith 3 – 0 Ron Meulenkamp
James Wade – Statistics & current form
During Saturday lunchtime’s broadcast of the first quarter-final between James Wade and Mervyn King on DAZN, Germany’s best-known darts professional hardly missed an opportunity to make it clear to viewers in front of their home sets that matches against James Wade are pretty much the toughest to play on the very big darts stage.
The 38-year-old Englishman is “intangible”, “as cold as a dog’s mouth” and has an “impressive timing”. This is exactly what Mervyn King had to experience in his 0:5 defeat. Admittedly, the experienced King was no benchmark for the world number four on this day, but Wade nevertheless once again underlined why he is regarded as a feared opponent on the tour
James Wade enjoys playing Michael Smith
High finishes, few errors on doubles and the aforementioned timing to do the right thing at the right moments also ensure that “The Machine” goes into his fourth World Championship semi-final overall and his first since 2013 with plenty of confidence. With these strengths, James Wade can definitely pose problems even for the “harmony-addicted” Michael Smith.
If we go by the averages, the maximums thrown or the general scoring quality of both players, Michael Smith is rightly treated as the clear favourite. But it should be taken into account that the slightly older of the two Englishmen has only lost one set in the tournament and only one direct duel against the “Bully Boy” since 2014 (!).
Last matches of James Wade:
World Darts Championship
01/02 2022 – Michael Smith 6 – 3 James Wade
01/01 2022 – James Wade 5 – 0 Mervyn King
12/30 2021 – James Wade 4 – 0 Martijn Kleermaker
12/27 2021 – James Wade 0 – 0 Vincent van der Voort
12/20 2021 – James Wade 3 – 1 Maik Kuivenhoven
Michael Smith – James Wade Direct comparison / H2H record
In a sport like darts, direct comparison likes to be taken with a grain of salt. Not, however, when the record of two players points so clearly in one direction. Definitely Michael Smith will have in mind that he could defeat his opponent only once in the last 17 matches.
In addition, there was another draw in the Premier League, but otherwise only victories for “The Machine”, who, among other things, also won the last meeting with a 6:0 whitewash. This, in turn, proves our thesis that the “Bully Boy” usually can’t cope at all with the 38-year-old’s style of play.
Michael Smith – James Wade Tip
Michael Smith has been the most convincing player in this World Cup so far. The “Bully Boy” defeated the two top favourites Price and Clayton on his way to the semi-finals and played an average of 100 in both matches. On Sunday the world number eight will play a completely different match.
Against James Wade, who only lost one set during the tournament and is currently number four in the world ranking, Smith has to be prepared for a slower game without much rhythm. Since this has often been a problem for the 31-year-old in the past and he usually only put his A-game on the board against opponents who, like him, score quickly and regularly, he may now even be facing a surprise exit in the final round.
The fact is that between Michael Smith and James Wade the betting odds on the success of the favourite do not include any value. We even consider a surprise coup of the 38-year-old, who is so uncomfortable to play against, by no means out of the question and argue with the fact that “The Machine” has won 15 of the past 17 (!) direct duels.
To hedge our Smith vs. Wade tip a little, we have decided to give James Wade two more sets as an advantage. The supposed underdog, who will certainly throw a lower average again, but at the same time will also show a better double quota, thus only has to win four sets for our recommendation to come true.
