Do the Saints stop the negative trend?
After the turkey is before the playoff battle, or as they say in the NFL on Thanksgiving, New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills. With the Saints and the Bills, the two teams that occupy the last playoff spot in their conference will meet.
So the loser will most likely slip out of the postseason ranks, whereas the winner will strengthen its playoff ambitions. While the stats are more in Buffalo’s favour here, history is clearly on New Orleans’ side.
The Bills haven’t beaten the Saints since 1998, both home and away. In addition, all five meetings since then have gone to the Saints by at least 12 points. So we can speak with a clear conscience of a real fearful opponent.
Although the Saints are not in good form at the moment, the Bills are also stumbling, which is why our forecast for New Orleans vs. Buffalo is a much closer match than predicted by the bookmakers. Outcome completely open.
Kickoff of the third Thanksgiving Game on Thursday is in the night to Friday at 2.20 in New Orleans. The game will be broadcast live on ProSieben and on DAZN.
New Orleans Saints – Statistics & current form
The Saints are stumbling mightily. They also fell from third to seventh in the playoff picture in recent weeks, barely holding the very last spot that would qualify for the postseason.
Against the Eagles on Sunday, it wasn’t even their offence that caused problems, but their otherwise so strong defence. 40 points against a team with a negative record is really not something you should catch in the NFL.
Is their defence getting back into shape?
This is a bit surprising, as their defence was on fire to start the season, holding Aaron Rodgers and his Packers to just three meagre points. But what is currently going wrong with their defence?
The American TV colleagues have analysed it quite well, that the Saints lack any discipline defensively. They simply don’t do their jobs, instead individual success, i.e. sacks, tackles, etc., is more important to them.
This is especially true for the entire linebacker crew, which is currently one of the weakest in the league. That’s how the Eagles were able to score an incredible 248 rushing yards on Sunday – because their defensive line just watched.
Without defense, New Orleans is not a playoff team
The good thing about their current situation is that it is changeable and not due to injuries or lack of player material. So all it takes is a hefty speech and a look at the table to get some discipline back into the team.
We assume that the heavy 29:40 defeat in Philly has done the same, which is why we expect a bounce-back game. Thus, for Saints vs. Bills, the odds on New Orleans +6.5 are our absolute betting recommendation.
Key Players:
QB: Trevor Siemian
RB: Alvin Kamara
WR: Marquez Callaway
TE: Adam Trautman
K: Aldrick Rosas
Buffalo Bills – stats & current form
Similar to the Saints, the Bills have also gone downhill in recent weeks. For them, the curve was even starker, as they slipped from 1st to 7th place. They are only one win away from the first non-playoff spot.
Now, of all places, they go to New Orleans, where they have not won since 1998. Plus, the Saints are also banged up and banged up boxers…the saying goes.
Bills with problems on offense
If it’s the defence that’s struggling for the Saints, it’s more the offence for Buffalo. There was a 45-point game against the Jets in between, but that was just the Jets 2021. Before that, the 6 points against the Jags and on Sunday the 15 against Indy speak a negative language.
Incidentally, in both games Josh Allen threw two interceptions. Something that rarely happened to him before. Until the Jags game, Allen had thrown a total of only four interceptions; since then, he has also thrown four. This trend is worrying.
Bills Game Plan Cracked?
After more than two years of consistently surprising opponents, the Bills seem to have adjusted very well to Allen and his offense. In particular, they are defending the very long play action plays much better.
Their longest gain in space this year was 61 yards, giving 27 quarterbacks who have already attached a longer pass this season – very unusual for Allen. So they desperately need to come up with something new – though whether they can do that by Thursday is questionable.
For Saints against Bills, a tip on Buffalo is therefore to be avoided. However, as the bookmakers see them clearly ahead, we can even target Saints +6.5 and still take a very good value.
Key Players:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Dawson Knox
K: Tyler Bass
New Orleans Saints – Buffalo Bills Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
When it comes to the head-to-head comparison, several points stand out. One, of course, is that the two teams don’t play each other too often. But another is that when they do, the Saints have always come out on top recently.
It also stands out that all of New Orleans’ last five wins have come by double-digit margins, most recently by as much as 37 points, and all of that in Buffalo. Even if Allen wasn’t in charge with the Bills then, that’s the kind of thing a franchise knows.
Another reason (besides the Bills’ offensive struggle) why we see Buffalo’s favourite status as overstated. For New Orleans vs. Buffalo, the odds on the Saints are thus more promising, especially then also with a handicap of up to +7 points.
New Orleans Saints – Buffalo Bills Tip
Both teams are stumbling. The Bills have lost two of their last three games, while the Saints have lost all three. Thus, it will solely come down to who can fight back better. We expect a duel of equals.
In a 50-50 duel, the Bills could also be victorious in the end, but we think it is unlikely that they will win by more than one score. Therefore, a tip on Saints +6.5 at top odds is to be favoured for Saints vs. Bills.
In addition, betting on over-points in this matchup is a nice alternative. After all, the Bills still field the league’s second-best offense (29.5 points per game), while the Saints have a top-15 offense (25.1 per game). So the projected 45.5 points should be easily surpassed
