Is Tsitsipas once again out of his depth?

Tennis fans have less than two weeks to wait before the clay-court highlight of the year, the French Open, takes place in Paris. As in every season, the tournaments in Monaco, Barcelona, Madrid and Rome are very good pointers for the second Grand Slam in the current calendar year.

In the semi-finals of the ATP Masters in Madrid, it now comes to the direct duel of two co-favourites for the title in the French capital on Saturday evening. Stefanos Tsitsipas will receive Alexander Zverev. According to the odds, the role of favourite lies with the Greek, who is in excellent form and already won the tournament in Monte Carlo a fortnight ago. He also defeated the German number one on his way to the title then.

This semifinal promises to be a different match, however, because compared to the clay court in the Principality, the conditions in the Spanish capital are much faster. Sascha Zverev was able to prove that he likes the surface in the Caja Magica very much last year when he even won the title.

After the latest impressions and the Hamburg player’s recurring weakness on serve, it would still be daring to venture a prediction between Tsitsipas and Zverev that the Olympic champion will reach the final. Incidentally, the winner of the match between Novak Djokovic and the greatest talent on the tour, Carlos Alcaraz, will be waiting in the final.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Statistics & current form

World ranking position: 5.
ATP Madrid seedings: 4th

Stefanos Tsitsipas has long since arrived at the top of the world. The Greek is currently ranked fifth in the world rankings, although he was also once among the top three in the rankings in autumn 2021. The fact that his meteoric rise has not yet been rewarded with a Grand Slam title is partly due to the fact that the 1.90-metre-tall right-hander has to deal with minor injuries from time to time, which set him back.

Nevertheless, the man from Athens came very close to crowning his still relatively young career last year, but Tsitsipas lost the final of the French Open in five dramatic sets and after leading 2:0 against Novak Djokovic. Once again, however, it became clear that “Stef’s” preferred surface is clearly clay court.

Tsitsipas one of the world’s best on clay

Since 2018, Tsitsipas has never conceded more than seven defeats in a season on clay. While he only lost five matches in total last year, the Greek currently has an outstanding 10:1 record. He won the high-class preparatory tournament in Monte Carlo, in Barcelona he was narrowly eliminated in the quarter-finals after three sets against high-flyer Alcaraz. In Madrid, the 23-year-old is now aiming to reach the final again.

In the tournament week so far, the Australian Open semi-finalist has been quite convincing. After straight wins against Pouille and Dimitrov, Rublev was eliminated in three sets in the quarter-finals. So far, Tsitsipas has been able to rely on his strong first serve and his sure one-handed backhand, which also makes him the favourite on Saturday evening. Between Tsitsipas and Zverev, the odds on the world number five advancing are quite justified.

Alexander Zverev – Statistics & current form

World Ranking: 3.
ATP Madrid seedings: 2nd

For Alexander Zverev, the tennis year 2022 has not gone according to plan so far. It is still the freak-out during the doubles competition in Acapuluco, Mexico, that is causing the German image problems. But the 25-year-old is also still a long way from his absolute top form.

His record of 20 wins and eight losses is average at best. Especially when you consider that Zverev failed to reach the last 16 at the Australian Open and is still waiting for his first tournament win in this calendar year.

Zverev lacks consistency

On clay, the second-seeded right-hander embarrassed himself in round two against Holger Rune at his home tournament in Munich, a week after reaching the semi-finals in Monaco. However, that was the end of the line against Stefanos Tsitsipas, who made short work of Sophia Thomalla’s boyfriend in two straight sets.

The performances in the current tournament week were decent, although with Auger-Aliassime, a battered Mussetti and Cilic, who even forced the Hamburg player into a third set, the opponents did not correspond to the absolute special class on the fast clay surface.

Nevertheless, it became clear once again what is currently lacking: the second serve is shaky, against Auger-Aliassime Zverev only hit one ace, but at the same time committed nine double faults. If the Canadian had had a better day, these second services would have blown up in his face. It is hard to imagine Tsitsipas doing the best tennis player in Germany a similar favour. With this in mind, we dare to predict before the semi-final Tsitsipas vs. Zverev that the tournament will end for Sascha on Saturday evening.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Alexander Zverev Direct comparison / H2H record

Ten direct duels have taken place between Tsitsipas and Zverev on the ATP Tour. On seven occasions, the Greek has had the upper hand, while Zverev has prevailed only three times. On clay, meanwhile, the German has never won against his younger opponent.

All three encounters on the red clay ended in favour of the world number five, who also came out on top in two sets in the last match to date a fortnight ago. In this encounter in Monaco, 53% of points won on the first service and only 35% of points won after the second service were the basic problems of the Olympic champion.

Stefanos Tsitsipas – Alexander Zverev Tip

Tennis fans will get their money’s worth on Saturday. First, the current number one in the world rankings, Novak Djokovic, will duel with the possible future star of the scene, Carlos Alcaraz. Afterwards, the match between Tsitsipas and Zverev will determine the second finalist for the clay court tournament in Madrid. Incidentally, the defending champion is the best German tennis player, who coped extremely well with the fast conditions last year, but is now considered an outsider in his semi-final.

Prior to the match between Tsitsipas and Zverev, lower betting odds are offered on the success of the Greek, which on the one hand has to do with the fact that the world number five has made the better impression so far in the course of the week. On the other hand, the head-to-head record also speaks for itself, as Zverev has never won on clay against his colleague who is two years younger than him.

A further complicating factor is that Zverev has had enormous problems with his serve recently. The first serve came too seldom, and with the second one one regularly had to fear that it would flutter into the net or out of bounds. The in-form “Stef” will know how to exploit these difficulties better, especially since he has celebrated ten wins in eleven matches on clay so far this season. Among others, also a fortnight ago against Zverev in Monte Carlo.