After going head-to-head throughout the season, the two rivals meet again in Turin. Last year’s points will be discarded, and Carlos will start at the top of the rankings. Here are all the combinations that would allow Jannik to finish the season in first place.

The Sincaraz saga is ready to change location. After the missed start at La Défense in Paris—the scene of Jannik’s solo performance echoing the concerts of the Rolling Stones and Bruce Springsteen—the next opportunity will be in Turin, at the Inalpi Arena designed by Isozaki. Rock music, starchitects, tennis. After all, aren’t Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz now perfectly integrated into the entertainment industry? So far, the duelists have never crossed paths at the ATP Finals. They have come close, as in 2023, when Djokovic knocked them out one after the other (the Spaniard in the semifinals, the Italian in the final), but never face to face. This could be the right time: the most beautiful finale to a season that has already rewritten tennis history.

The two phenomena have dominated the scene, crushing the competition. Take the new official rankings (based on 52 weeks), which today put Sinner back in first place: Jannik and Carlos, with over 11,000 points, have twice the tally of the third-placed player (Zverev, 5560). A duopoly that began in 2024 and continued this year, despite Sinner’s three-month suspension for the Clostebol case. The last eight Slams bear their signature, evenly distributed: four each in total, two each in each season. Then, 2025 marked the sublimation of the Big Two era, with the two facing each other in the final in five of the seven tournaments in which they both participated. The exceptions to the rule were the first event (Australian Open) and the last (Paris Masters 1000), won by Sinner. Jannik and Carlos met again in May at the Internazionali, just as the South Tyrolean was returning to action. On the clay of Rome, and then at Roland Garros, the Spaniard showed he had an extra gear. The Italian erased the bad memory of the three match points wasted in Paris by dominating the Wimbledon final. In Cincinnati, the virus put him out of action. Then, Alcaraz was irresistible at the US Open, prompting Sinner to make some adjustments. Returning to his beloved indoor courts (26 consecutive victories), the Fox has also rediscovered himself: high performance on serve, suffocating pressure with groundstrokes, and the drop shot used with increasing confidence. In Paris, the Murcian saw certain ghosts return, and the balance of power was reversed once again. We will have to get used to it. So here we are, on the doorstep of Turin. Alcaraz has announced that he will be in Italy as early as Wednesday to get used to the court set up by GreenSet, led by former world number 23 Javier Sanchez Vicario. Sinner will take a few more days to recover from his exertions in Paris. On Thursday, the draw for the two groups of the Finals will take place. The Race season rankings will be decisive, with Alcaraz leading ahead of Sinner. For this reason, Carlos, seeded No. 1, will be placed in Group A, and Jannik, No. 2, in Group B. There will be no crossover in the round robins. They could face each other in the semifinals, scheduled for Saturday, if they finish their respective groups in first and second place. Or in Sunday’s final.

Showdown—  Two Slams each, eight titles in total for Alcaraz, five for Sinner, who has played four fewer tournaments. The Finals feel like a showdown in 2025. The top spot in the year-end rankings is also at stake. A goal achieved by the Spaniard in 2022 and the Italian in 2024. Who will it be now? Next Monday, in the official rankings, the points earned in Turin a year ago will expire: 1,500 for Jannik, 200 for Carlos, who will thus return to the top. The scenario will be as follows: Alcaraz 11,050 points, Sinner 10,000. The Finals award 200 points for each win in the round robin, 400 for a semifinal victory, and 500 for a final victory, for a total of 1,500 points for the undefeated champion (like Sinner a year ago). To finish at the top of the ATP rankings for the second year in a row, the Italian will have to win the Finals again. If he does so undefeated, finishing with 11,500 points, he will have to hope that Alcaraz does not win more than two matches in the group stage and then stops in the semifinals, so that he reaches a maximum of 11,450 points. If he did so with one defeat in the round robin, thus finishing with 11,300 points, then the Spaniard would need to win no more than one match, rising to 11,250 points. Remaining scenario: Jannik wins the Finals with only one match won in the group stage, thus finishing with 11,100 points; in this case, Carlos would not have to win a single match in Turin, remaining at 11,050 points. Calculations aside, it will still be a show at the Inalpi Arena.