After their head-to-head battles throughout the season, the rivals meet again in Turin. Last year’s points will be discarded, and Carlos will start in the lead. Here are all the scenarios that would allow Jannik to finish the season in first place

The Sincaraz saga is ready to change locations. After the missed opportunity at La Défense in Paris—the setting for Jannik’s solo performance that echoed the concerts of the Rolling Stones and Bruce Springsteen—the next showdown will be in Turin, at the Inalpi Arena designed by Isozaki. Rock music, starchitects, tennis. After all, aren’t Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz now perfectly integrated into the entertainment industry? So far, the two rivals have never faced off at the ATP Finals. They’ve come close, yes, as in 2023, when Djokovic knocked them out one after the other (the Spaniard in the semifinals, the Italian in the final), but never face to face. This could be the moment: the most beautiful finale of a season that has already rewritten tennis history.

The two phenoms have dominated the scene, leaving the competition in the dust. Take the new official rankings (based on the 52-week period) that today put Sinner back in first place: Jannik and Carlos, with over 11,000 points, have twice as many points as the third-place player (Zverev, 5,560). A duopoly that began in 2024 and continued this year, despite Sinner’s three-month suspension over the Clostebol case. The last eight Grand Slams bear their mark, evenly split: four each in total, two each in every season. Then, 2025 marked the pinnacle of the Big Two era, as they faced off in the finals of five of the seven tournaments in which they both competed. The exceptions to the rule were the first event (Australian Open) and the last (Paris Masters 1000), both won by Sinner. Jannik and Carlos met again in May at the Internazionali, right after the South Tyrolean’s return. On the clay of Rome, and then at Roland Garros, the Spaniard showed he had an extra gear. The Italian erased the bad memory of the three squandered match points in Paris by dominating the Wimbledon final. In Cincinnati, the virus sidelined him. Then came the unstoppable Alcaraz at the US Open, prompting Sinner to make some adjustments. Returning to his beloved indoor courts (26 consecutive wins), the Fox has also rediscovered himself: high-level serving, suffocating pressure from the baseline, and the drop-shot variation used with growing confidence. In Paris, the Murcian faced certain ghosts again, and the balance of power has shifted once more. We’ll have to get used to it. So here we are, on the eve of Turin. Alcaraz has announced that he will be in Italy as early as Wednesday to get used to the court set up by GreenSet, led by former world No. 23 Javier Sanchez Vicario. Sinner will take a few more days to recover from the exertions of Paris. The draw for the two groups of the Finals will take place on Thursday. The Race season rankings will determine the seeding, with Alcaraz leading ahead of Sinner. For this reason, Carlos, the No. 1 seed, will be placed in Group A, and Jannik, the No. 2 seed, in Group B. There will be no matchups between them in the round-robin stage. They could face each other in the semifinals, scheduled for Saturday, if they finish their respective groups in first and second place, respectively. Or in Sunday’s final.

showdown—  Two Grand Slams each, eight titles in total for Alcaraz, five for Sinner, who has played four fewer tournaments. The Finals feel very much like a showdown in 2025. The top spot in the year-end rankings is also at stake. A goal achieved by the Spaniard in 2022 and by the Italian in 2024. Who will it be this time? Next Monday, in the official rankings, the points earned in Turin a year ago will expire: 1,500 for Jannik, 200 for Carlos, who will thus return to the top. The scenario will be as follows: Alcaraz 11,050 points, Sinner 10,000. The Finals award 200 points for each win in the round-robin stage, 400 for a semifinal victory, and 500 for a final victory, totaling 1,500 points for the undefeated champion (as Sinner was a year ago). To finish atop the ATP rankings for the second year in a row, the Italian will have to win the Finals again. If he does so undefeated, finishing with 11,500 points, he would need Alcaraz to win no more than two matches in the group stage and then be eliminated in the semifinals, thus reaching a maximum of 11,450 points. If he does so with a loss in the round-robin stage, thus finishing with 11,300 points, then the Spaniard would need to win no more than one match, reaching 11,250 points. Remaining scenario: Jannik wins the Finals with just one match won in the group stage, thus finishing with 11,100 points; in that case, Carlos would have to lose every match in Turin, remaining at 11,050 points. Calculations aside, it will still be a show at the Inalpi Arena.