Will the Norwegian once again pose problems for the Djoker?
The world number one Novak Djokovic, who started the new season with a delay, already reached the semifinals of a Masters tournament in Madrid last week. There, however, the Djoker had to admit defeat to the up-and-coming young star Carlos Alcaraz. Now the Serbian faces another potential star of the future in Casper Ruud.
The Norwegian reached the semifinals of a major tournament at the Rome Masters for the sixth time in his young career. However, he has only won once in this round so far – at the Miami Open 2022. The odds are now also swinging in favour of the world number one in the run-up to the clash between Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud.
Novak Djokovic also leads the head-to-head comparison against Casper Ruud with 2:0 victories and was able to defeat the Norwegian in the semifinals two years ago here in Rome, of all places, after which he also recorded the overall victory. Even then, the shooting star did not make it easy for the world number one.
Both duels between the opponents in this semi-final went over 21 games each, which is why it makes a lot of sense to bet on Novak Djokovic against Casper Ruud on more than 20.5 games.
Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form
Current ranking in the world rankings: 1
Position in the seedings: 1
The 34-year-old Serb Novak Djokovic continues to hold on to the number one position in the ATP world rankings with short interruptions. However, the absence of Daniil Medvedev was primarily responsible for this.
From a purely performance point of view, the Djoker is currently far from his best. In the run-up to the Rome Masters, he has only played in four tournaments in the 2022 season. However, the successes have so far failed to materialise.
Already lost four singles matches in 2022
In Monte Carlo, Djokovic failed directly in the first round on his comeback, before he lost 1-2 in the final of a small tournament in Belgrade as a local hero. Last week he lost in the semifinals in Madrid to the shooting star Carlos Alcaraz.
Nevertheless, the Djoker was able to increase his annual tally to ten wins and four losses at the Stadio del tennis di Roma with three straight 2-0 victories over Karatsev, Wawrinka and Auger-Aliassime. In view of the fact that he lost only five of his 46 singles in 2020, for example, the current low win rate clearly indicates that the visa affair in Australia at the beginning of the year has not left him unscathed.
62 of 72 singles won at the Rome Masters
However, a Djokovic in top form is of course always good for the big one. Nole has already proved several times that he can also play big in Rome. So far, he has reached the final eleven times – and won the title on five occasions (most recently in 2020).
Also because the world number one has a record of 62 wins from 72 singles matches at the Stadio del tennis di Roma, the bookmakers see him as the clear favourite.
Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form
Current world ranking: 10
Position in the seedings: 5
The 23-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud has been firmly established in the top 10 of the ATP world rankings for a good year now. The man from Oslo, who specialises in clay courts and cites clay court king Rafael Nadal as his great idol, was able to celebrate his breakthrough here in Rome, of all places, two years ago.
At the Rome Masters 2020, Ruud fought his way into the semifinals of a major tournament for the first time in his career. His current opponent Novak Djokovic, of all people, ended the run then.
In Miami for the first time in a Major final
Nevertheless, this coup in Italy was to be followed by further flights of fancy in the last two years. In 2021, Ruud reached the semi-finals of the Monte Carlo Masters and Madrid Open, before he also impressed as an advancing player at the ATP Finals and successfully survived the round robin there.
In 2022, the Norwegian could even take the next step for the first time. In Miami, the 23-year-old reached the first Major final of his career, but failed there with 0:2 against the current high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz.
Won 20 of 28 singles in 2022
Never the less, the Norwegian’s annual record, who also won his first singles title of the season in Buenos Aires in February, reads extremely successfully. The world number ten has won 20 of his 28 singles matches so far in 2022.
Most recently, Ruud eliminated Shapovalov, a strong opponent, in a thrilling two-setter over 25 games in the quarter-finals. Accordingly, we see a lot of value in betting on another long match between Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud, especially since the last two duels with the Djoker were always strong phases for the Norwegian, who was able to entangle the Serb in 21 games in each case.
Novak Djokovic – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 2:0
The two athletes have faced each other twice so far and on both occasions the Djoker prevailed outright 2-0. However, both the Rome Masters 2020 Semifinal clash and their most recent clash in the ATP Finals 2021 Round Robin went over a thrilling 21 games.
Novak Djokovic – Casper Ruud Tip
In principle, the prediction for Novak Djokovic against Casper Ruud goes to the Djoker. However, the Norwegian should by no means be underestimated. Already in the last two years, when the Serbian world number one played much more consistently, the 23-year-old was able to take quite a few points from the superstar. The chances of the supposed underdog perhaps even winning his first set against Nole have increased accordingly.
In any case, we do not expect a one-sided semifinal, but a match that will again need at least 21 games to determine a winner. Moreover, especially in the first set, the probability of a tiebreak is not exactly low.
