Clear number for the Serbian superstar?

With the momentum of 48 wins compared to just six losses in 2021, world number one Novak Djokovic heads into this year’s ATP Finals. The Serbian just celebrated his 37th singles title at a tournament from the ATP Tour Masters 1000 series at the Paris Masters, setting a new record in the process.

The Djoker could now equal the current record winner Roger Federer, who is not taking part this year, with a potential sixth overall victory at the ATP Finals. At least in the opening match between Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud, the odds are heavily stacked in favour of the Serbian superstar.

Casper Ruud, making his debut at the ATP Finals, is the heavy underdog. The Norwegian has an impressive annual record of 53:15 and has won five singles titles, but he has only been able to triumph in small tournaments and almost exclusively on clay. He has never made it past the round of 16 at a Grand Slam, which makes him the smallest fish in the shark tank of the ATP Finals.

Accordingly, we don’t think the clear underdog has much of a chance against the world number one in his opening match. Instead, we are giving the Serb a handicap of -4.5 games for Novak Djokovic against Casper Ruud.

Novak Djokovic – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 1.
Position in the seedings: 1.

The 34-year-old Serb Novak Djokovic is the last of the former “Big Four” (along with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray) left at this year’s ATP Finals.

Although the world number one has been much less active in the calendar year 2021 with only 54 singles played so far than in recent years, when he mostly played more than 80 singles, he still won five singles titles and broke numerous other records.

Incredible career record of 982:198 in singles

Nole won, among other things, the first three Grand Slam tournaments of the 2021 season, bringing his tally to 20 Grand Slams, equalling Federer and Nadal, and also reached the final of the US Open. Add to that his latest triumph at the Paris Masters, where the Serb won his 37th Masters tournament the Sunday before last – a new ATP Tour record.

In total, the Djoker has won 982 singles matches and lost just 198. The world number one is therefore favoured going into the year-end tournament, which he won for the fifth and last time in 2015.

The big favourite at the ATP Finals

In the absence of his long-term rivals Federer, Nadal and Murray, Djokovic is now naturally driven by World Championship success number six, with which he would also become the joint record winner with Federer at the ATP Finals.

Of course, he is the favourite in the Green Group, but he will have to live up to this role in his opening match in Turin. The bookmakers consider a false start by the Serb to be pretty much out of the question.

Casper Ruud – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world rankings: 8th
Position in the seedings: 8th

The 22-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud is considered a great talent and already held the number one position in the world ranking list in his junior days. In 2021, he has also made an emphatic arrival in the big leagues.

The shooting star from Oslo won five of his six singles titles on the ATP Tour this year and, due to the injury of his personal idol Rafael Nadal, just managed to become the eighth and last athlete in the top eight to compete for the world championship at the ATP Finals.

Five singles titles and 53-13 wins in 2021

While Casper Ruud’s annual record of 53 wins from 68 completed singles is impressive in all form. After all, he has won 78% of all matches played. On closer inspection, however, it becomes clear why he is nevertheless the glaring underdog.

After all, all five singles titles he has won this year have come in tournaments from the ATP Tour 250 category – the lowest category in which the decisive points for the world rankings are awarded. At a Major, on the other hand, it has never been enough to win the big one.

Only 18.8% of games won against Top-10 players

Instead, the Norwegian only ever got so far in the big tournaments until he met the first big names. In his six Masters tournaments in 2021, he reached the semifinals twice, the quarterfinals three times and the round of 16 once.

The room for improvement, meanwhile, is underlined by one statistic in particular: Ruud’s record against opponents from the current top 10 of the ATP world rankings. He won only three of 16 of these matches (18.8%). Moreover, all three victories were on clay – his best surface. Accordingly, there is little to be said for betting on Novak Djokovic against Casper Ruud that he will hit the jackpot against the world number one of all people.

Novak Djokovic – Casper Ruud Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 1:0

The two athletes have only faced each other once so far – in the semifinals of the Rome Masters 2020. Djokovic won outright 2-0 (7-5 and 6-3) on clay, of all surfaces, Ruud’s favourite.

Novak Djokovic – Casper Ruud tip

For Novak Djokovic against Casper Ruud, the prediction must also take into account the surface that will be played in Turin. The indoor hard court at the Pala Alpitour is considered to be quite fast, which only adds to the advantage of the Serb, who is already so adept on hard court. After all, Ruud, who does not have impressive stats against the ATP Tour’s top stars anyway, has so far shone almost exclusively on clay, where he has also won five of his six singles titles.

Given that the Serb has already beaten the Norwegian 2-0 on clay, the Djoker in his element should have no problems at all to get an easy opening win. Accordingly, we are betting on Nole and applying a handicap of -4.5 games