Can Berrettini stop the Nadal comeback?

The men’s Australian Open quarter-finals were hard to beat for drama. Three of the four duels went the full distance of five sets. In the first semi-final, two players face each other who had to go into the decider despite a 2-0 set lead, but were able to overturn the momentum and secure victory. We are talking about the Italian Matteo Berrettini and Rafael Nadal.

Berrettini thus achieved a first, as he is the first Italian to reach the final round at the “Happy Slam” in Melbourne. Overall, it is the third GS semi-final for the strong-serving Italian. Nadal has far more experience, but has only lifted the winner’s trophy once in Melbourne. After a long injury lay-off, the Majorcan has been very strong and his fighting spirit was once again his hallmark in the quarter-finals.

The central question in this match will be how the body of the now 35-year-old Nadal has coped with the strain of the Shapovalov match. In view of the doubts, odds of up to 2.50 for the Italian in the match between Matteo Berrettini and Rafael Nadal are quite interesting.

Matteo Berrettini – Statistics & current form

Novak Djokovic has been the Italian’s Grand Slam terror in the recent past. In each of the last three Grand Slam tournaments, the world number one was the final stop for Berrettini (twice in the quarter-finals and in the Wimbledon final). This fate does not threaten the five-time ATP tournament winner this year. So far, one 500 title (Queens 2021) is his biggest title to date, but with his consistency Berrettini has absolutely established himself among the world’s best.

This consistency can be seen above all in the fact that he is the only player born in the 90s who has already reached at least the quarter-finals of all four Grand Slam tournaments. A feat that neither Zverev, Thiem, Tsitsipas & Co have managed so far.

Nearly four hours in action

Berrettini certainly doesn’t always have the most beautiful stroke technique and seems unconventional at times. With his height, however, he has a very strong serve, but it would not be fair to reduce him to his service alone. Berrettini is also a player who can adapt well and reacts tactically much more variably than a Rublev (best example against Cilic) or Zverev (against Shapovalov).

Moreover, the Italian is in a very strong mental condition right now. In the quarter-final against Gael Monfils, he was already comfortably in the lead before he had to start shaking. Not only did he lose the lead, he also had almost the entire stadium against him. However, he mastered this difficult situation with a double break in the deciding set and thus took a lot of steam out of the matter. Nevertheless, Berrettini was on court for 3:49 hours before he fixed his third match point to enter the semi-finals for the first time Down Under.

His further development over the last months/years became clear against Monfils. The Frenchman even served more aces (15:12), more points won on first serve (76% to 74%) and also more points won as a return (34% to 29%). Nevertheless, Berrettini, who is especially strong in crunch time, triumphed. The physical fitness with his mental strength ensure that a prediction on Berrettini against Nadal makes sense for the Italian.

Rafael Nadal – Statistics & current form

Almost 20 minutes longer than Matteo Berrettini, Rafael Nadal was on the court to fix his victory against the Canadian Denis Shapovalov. The match had a number of parallels, including the outcome of the favourite’s victory. In Nadal’s case, however, the battle over four hours is even more important. The Majorcan has had to suffer a lot and often in his career. Already at the beginning of August, he had to cut short his 2021 season after Müller-Weiss syndrome (deformity of the scaphoid bone) caused him problems once more.

Yearly record 9-0

The invitational tournament in Mubadala was disappointing, shortly afterwards the 35-year-old tested positive and accordingly the preparation for the new season was far from ideal. But Nadal is a fighter who does not know the word give up. He already stunned many tennis fans at the preparatory tournament in Melbourne and won the tournament.

He has been able to underline this strong form in recent days and many experts believe in a dream comeback like that of Roger Federer in 2017, who also came back from a long injury break to win the title. The Shapovalov match showed how difficult Nadal is to defeat. After squandering a 2-0 lead in the set, basically everything spoke in favour of the 13-year younger Canadian.

Nadal had physical problems, had to be treated and was visibly affected by the exertions of the match. But Nadal is Nadal and his will to win drove him on. In the decisive moments, he was able to set pinpricks and rely on his strong service. An absolutely impressive victory in which the Spaniard won more points on his first serve (79% compared to 73%) and committed just 28 unforced errors (Shapovalov had 51).

But how much energy does the Majorcan have left in the tank for the semi-final? After all, Berrettini is also a player who can determine the match with his hard shots from the baseline. It is difficult to imagine Nadal pulling off another feat over a period of more than three hours. Value therefore does not seem to have the forecast on the Mallorcan with Berrettini against Nadal.

Matteo Berrettini – Rafael Nadal Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to Head: 0:1

The only previous clash between the two players was also a Grand Slam semi-final on hardcourt. In September 2019, this duel took place at the US Open, when the Mallorcan Nadal had a relatively easy match after a hard-fought first set and prevailed smoothly in three rounds. Berrettini also had to play Monfils in the quarter-finals and go through five sets. This time, however, he seems to be in even better physical shape.

Matteo Berrettini – Rafael Nadal Tip

The sweltering heat is taking everything out of the players in Melbourne at the moment, but there has still been tennis at the highest level to watch so far in the second week of the tournament. Finally, tennis has been able to make sporting headlines again. The outcome of this match will once again make headlines, because either Berrettini will be the first Italian to reach the final in Melbourne or the fabulous Rafa comeback will continue. The ten-year age difference could well play a role in the course of the match.

Nadal is a player you probably have to beat three times before the match is actually won. The Mallorcan is a stand-up guy and cannot be brought down. After his long break, however, it is hard to imagine that his body will be able to take on a challenge at this level again. Willpower, yes, but another feat of strength of this kind? No. That’s why betting on the 2.50 odds for Berrettini against Nadal seems extremely interesting for the Italian underdog. Six units are used as the stake.

However, since no clear match is to be expected, given the strong condition of both players, a bet on Over 38.5 Games is also a good option.