Will the Californian make it to the semi-finals for the first time?

If the Wimbledon 2024 favorites prediction had come true, this quarter-final would probably have been a duel between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev. However, both players have already been eliminated, meaning that one player – either Lorenzo Musetti or Taylor Fritz – will reach the semi-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his career. For the Italian, it is even the very first quarter-final of his career

Taylor Fritz, on the other hand, was among the top eight players in the men’s singles at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club for the first time two years ago, but has never made it past this round before. However, the service giant from California is now the top favorite. After all, he is now up against an opponent whose qualities come into their own primarily on clay, which also influences our forecast for Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz

It can be assumed that the Californian will be able to get through his service games very reliably and confidently, while his Italian challenger, who was beaten 3-0 by Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon two years ago, is likely to have much more trouble converting his service games. With this in mind, it would be something of a surprise if the player from Tuscany were to overcome this hurdle, although it has to be said that Lorenzo Musetti has had a surprisingly strong grass court season so far.

Nevertheless, Taylor Fritz should – provided there are no big surprises – win what is unlikely to be an overly long match. We are betting on the American winning in a maximum of 40 games. A slightly less risky option would be to bet on the Californian’s victory with a set handicap of -1.5, which also includes the Italian winning the set and any tiebreaks. At the bookmaker Winamax, whose new customer bonus you can access via the following banner, odds of 1.52 are available for Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz.

Lorenzo Musetti – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 25
Position in the seeding list: 25

22-year-old Italian Lorenzo Musetti took his first steps on the ATP Tour back in 2019. Since qualifying for the men’s singles of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time at the French Open in 2021 and reaching the round of 16 there at his first attempt, the man from Tuscany has not missed a single Grand Slam.

In addition to two singles titles, which the current world number 25 secured at two smaller tournaments in Hamburg and Naples in 2022, he has yet to achieve any resounding success. However, he already beat the then world number one Novak Djokovic, among others, on clay in 2023 and showed what he is capable of

Lorenzo Musetti has improved significantly on grass

Strangely enough, the accomplished clay court player has only really shone this year since the grass court season opened, which has never really been a good place for him. In the run-up to this year’s Wimbledon Championships, he managed just two victories in the men’s singles at Church Road.

Now Lorenzo Musetti has reached the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time with four wins. He previously reached the grand final at the preparatory tournament at London’s Queen’s Club, where he was beaten 2-0 by Tommy Paul (ATP 13). On the way there, however, the 22-year-old even eliminated a reigning top 10 player, Alex de Minaur (ATP 7)

How does Lorenzo Musetti fare against a serving giant?

Nevertheless, the odds are now clearly against Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz, whose run at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club has been somewhat opportunistic. On the one hand, he has not yet had to get rid of a single big name and most recently faced Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (ATP 58) in the round of 16, a player who only made it into the Wimbledon men’s singles as a lucky loser.

And on the other hand, the Italian has so far been completely spared by the dreaded service giants of the ATP Tour on his way to his first Grand Slam quarter-final, so that he has always found his way back into his strong return game. For his part, the 22-year-old has also shone with strong figures on his second serve, with which he achieved exceptionally high rates of points won in both the round of 16 (71 percent) and the round of 16 (84 percent), meaning that he only conceded a single service game in both matches

Taylor Fritz – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world rankings: 12
Position in the seeding list: 13

The 26-year-old American Taylor Fritz recently ended the German superstar’s strong run with a 3:2 comeback win against an ailing Alexander Zverev after trailing 0:2.

The Californian has now reached the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam tournament for the fourth time in his career and for the second time at Wimbledon. So far, this round has always been the last stop for the current twelfth-ranked player in the world, but he is now the favorite going into the match

Taylor Fritz’s serve is almost impossible to defend

After all, when predicting Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz, you have to bear in mind that the two athletes met at Wimbledon two years ago. Back then, the American, who repeatedly converted his enormous power into free points on grass, won 3:0 without any danger.

Another reason why the 3:2 comeback win against Sascha worked out was that the 26-year-old won 83 percent of all points against the German with his first serve (15 aces) and even scored in 34 out of 49 cases when he needed the second serve (69 percent). Those are extremely impressive figures for a match against a world number four

Taylor Fritz and the grass court are a perfect match

Taylor Fritz is one of those players whose serve is almost impossible to defend on grass, which is why it comes as no surprise that three of the eight singles titles the American has won on the ATP Tour have been won on this fast surface.

Taylor Fritz only just won the preparatory tournament in Eastbourne at the end of June, where he did not drop a single set in four matches. In conjunction with the four victories at the Wimbledon Championships, the Californian has now been unbeaten on the grass court for eight singles matches in a row.

Lorenzo Musetti – Taylor Fritz head-to-head / H2H record

Head to head: 1:2

The two players have faced each other three times on the ATP Tour and Taylor Fritz leads the direct comparison with two wins. The two athletes clashed exactly two years ago at the Wimbledon Championships. In the first round, the American left nothing to be desired in a one-sided match over three sets (6:4, 6:4 and 6:3). The Italian clay court specialist got his revenge this year at the Monte-Carlo Masters on his favorite surface with a smooth 2:0 victory over the Californian.

Lorenzo Musetti – Taylor Fritz Tip

The bookmakers’ odds for Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz clearly favor the American. Not only is the Californian significantly higher in the ATP world rankings, but his height and strength also make him an absolute grass court specialist, while his challenger from Tuscany is usually much better at showing his strengths on clay and, due to the nature of the fast grass court at Wimbledon, is much less likely to get the chance to shine in his return game.

We can expect the Californian to win many effortless service games, for whom a break should usually be enough to win the set. Accordingly, the forecast for Lorenzo Musetti against Taylor Fritz is that the American service giant will win the match in a maximum of 40 games.

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