Will the man from Sesto remain without losing a set again?
Jannik Sinner has played four matches so far at the Australian Open 2024. Not only has the reigning runner-up won all four matches, he has also not lost a single set and has not had to stay on court for longer than three hours. The perfect first week for the man from Sesto was correspondingly easy on his strength. As a result, Jannik Sinner’s win against Andrey Rublev is now also a very good bet for the South Tyrolean
Finally, Jannik Sinner also leads the “Head to head” comparison with four wins from six duels, with both defeats coming from games in which he had to retire due to injury. Andrey Rublev and quarter-finals at Grand Slam tournaments are also a topic in their own right. In the case of Jannik Sinner against Andrey Rublev, the forecast must take into account that the Muscovite has been eliminated in all nine quarter-finals he has played at Grand Slams so far
In the 2023 season, Andrey Rublev even reached the last eight at three of the four Grand Slam tournaments, but this proved to be an insurmountable hurdle for the Russian. One possible explanation for this is his poor record against top 10 players. The Muscovite has only won 28 of 71 singles matches against players from the current top 10. Nevertheless, he did beat local hero Alex de Minaur, the current number ten in the world, in the round of 16, even though he himself was plagued by cramps in the marathon match over the full five sets.
Although we ultimately expect Sesto to win, we still believe that Andrey Rublev can give Jannik Sinner a good fight. With this in mind, the bet that at least one set will go to a tie-break is very consistent
Jannik Sinner – Statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 4
Position in the seeding list: 4
The 22-year-old South Tyrolean Jannik Sinner, who naturally has Italian citizenship and therefore also competes on the ATP Tour under the Italian flag, made a big impression in 2023.
He first won his first major title at a Masters tournament in Canada, then led Italy to overall victory in the Davis Cup and finally fought his way through to the final at the ATP Finals. There, the man from Sesto was defeated by Novak Djokovic, of all people, whom he had beaten in the preliminary round and who would have been eliminated in the round robin had it not been for Sinner’s help
Jannik Sinner with a perfect first week in Melbourne
The 22-year-old decided to forgo preparation tournaments in 2024 without further ado. He returned all the more impressively at the Australian Open 2024, where he marched through to the quarter-finals at lightning speed. Four opponents stood in his way and all four were sent home 3-0 within less than three hours
Not once did the South Tyrolean have to go into a tie-break, who was also able to put the Siberian medal winner from the 2021 Olympic Games, Karen Khachanov, in his place.
Has Jannik Sinner had to call on all his skills yet?
The odds are clearly stacked in Jannik Sinner’s favor against Andrey Rublev, who also played almost flawlessly in terms of risk management. Although he made five more unforced errors than his opponent in the round of 16 against Karen Khachanov (ATP 15) (34:29), he also played 19 more winners (46:27).
Another important difference: the 22-year-old was always on hand when the decisive points were on the line and looked as if he could shift up a gear at any time. In this style, he fended off nine of Khachanov’s ten break points himself, but was able to convert five of his own eight chances to break
Andrey Rublev – statistics & current form
Current position in the world rankings: 5
Position in the seeding list: 5
The 26-year-old Russian Andrey Rublev has been active on the ATP Tour for much longer and played in the men’s singles of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in 2015. However, he did not win his very first major title until 2023, when he won the Monte Carlo Masters.
The Muscovite is an established top 10 player, but has never reached the semi-finals, especially at Grand Slam level, which almost acts as a kind of magical barrier
Andrey Rublev mostly sticks to top 10 players
Andrey Rublev has reached a Grand Slam quarter-final nine times so far – including three of the four Grand Slams in the 2023 calendar year. In all nine cases, however, the Muscovite has been eliminated in the same round.
This can be explained by the fact that there are hardly any surprise players in the tableau from this round onwards. Against the crème de la crème of the ATP Tour, the Russian has been missing the last few percentage points time and again. Andrey Rublev has only won 28 of his 71 singles matches against top 10 players in history
The physical advantage certainly doesn’t lie with Andrey Rublev
A further complication is the fact that the 26-year-old lost some energy in the far from smooth first week. He was on court for four hours and 14 minutes against local hero Alex de Minaur before the Muscovite, who was plagued by cramps in the meantime, managed a 3:2 comeback victory after trailing 2:1.
The fact that he will go into his tenth Grand Slam quarter-final with an additional handicap in terms of physical fitness is another point that makes there almost no alternative to betting on Jannik Sinner’s victory against Andrey Rublev. After all, there is no lack of momentum for the Russian, who won the preparatory tournament in Hong Kong at the start of the year, has already won his first singles title in 2024 and is in a perfect position with eight wins from eight singles matches in the still young season
Jannik Sinner – Andrey Rublev Direct comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 4:2
The two athletes have faced each other a total of six times on different courts around the world on the ATP Tour and Jannik Sinner leads the head-to-head comparison with four wins. In 2023, there were two duels between the two players, which the Sesto native won 2:0 against Andrey Rublev – most recently in the semi-finals of the Vienna Open with 7:5 and 7:6. It should also be mentioned that both of the Russian’s victories were the result of the South Tyrolean retiring due to injury.
Jannik Sinner – Andrey Rublev Tip
The odds of all bookmakers are clearly and unmistakably in favor of Jannik Sinner against Andrey Rublev. This is not only due to the “head-to-head” comparison and the Russian’s curious record in quarter-finals of Grand Slam tournaments, but above all to the current form of the South Tyrolean, who won all four singles matches 3:0 in under three hours. His Russian opponent, on the other hand, has been plagued by cramps of late and has lost a lot more energy in the first week, which could well become a factor
It also makes little sense to bet on the Muscovite, who has eight wins from eight singles matches in 2024, going down without a hitch in three sets. On the contrary, it can be assumed that there will be plenty of resistance. Our prediction for Jannik Sinner against Andrey Rublev is therefore that at least one set will be decided in a tie-break
