Can the Brazilian upset the world number one?

Four women remain at Roland Garros and alongside top favourite Iga Swiatek, who has won the French Open twice in the last three years, Beatriz Haddad Maia has made it to the semi-finals of the major Grand Slam tournament in Paris for the first time in the Open Era. According to the bookmakers, there is almost no alternative to betting on the Polish world number one reaching the final when it comes to Iga Swiatek against Beatriz Haddad Maia.

Basically, we agree with the bettors’ assessment and also suspect that the Pole will win in the end. However, her Brazilian opponent has already surprised with many a strong performance and just celebrated a 2-1 comeback victory over two-time Grand Slam finalist Ons Jabeur in the quarter-finals after trailing 1-0. Iga Swiatek’s prediction of the outcome of her match against Beatriz Haddad Maia is therefore not entirely clear-cut.

The fact that Beatriz Haddad Maia has won her only direct encounter with Iga Swiatek 2-1 so far should not be ignored. And we are not talking about the first round of an insignificant tournament in which the Pole – possibly still exhausted from the previous tournament – only acted half-heartedly. Rather, the Brazilian eliminated the Pole last autumn at the National Bank Open in Toronto in a WTA 1000 tournament, after Iga Swiatek had previously won four of the six WTA 1000 tournaments in 2022.

So a bet that does not rule out a possible surprise in this semifinal without taking too much risk is correspondingly interesting. By betting that the Brazilian will win at least six matches (O5.5), all these aspects are taken into account.

Iga Swiatek – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 1
Position in the seedings: 1

The 22-year-old Pole Iga Swiatek is once again seamlessly continuing her recent performances on the red clay of the only Grand Slam tournament played on clay courts at this year’s French Open.

The Warsaw native has advanced to the Roland Garros semifinals without dropping a set, winning a total of 23 of her last 24 singles matches at the Grand Slam tournament in Paris, where she has ended up picking up the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen at two of the last three editions.

Won 33 of 39 singles matches in 2023

The world number one is also aiming for overall victory this year, which would not only see her defend the title in Paris but also her top spot in the WTA world rankings, which is also being vied for by reigning Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka.

Yet Iga Swiatek was on court for just five hours and 33 minutes on her dominant way to the semi-finals. She was not really challenged by Coco Gauff, who could only take one service game from the Pole. It was Swiatek’s 33rd win in 39 singles this year.

Won 75% points on second serve in quarter-final

The odds are clearly in favour of Iga Swiatek against Beatriz Haddad Maia, who could now settle the score with the Brazilian, whom she lost 2-1 to in Toronto last autumn.

If the Pole can return her serve to the form she has shown in recent rounds, her chances of reaching the final for the third time in four years at Roland Garros are very good. In her most recent quarter-final against Coco Gauff (WTA 6), Iga Swiatek not only won 64% of her points on her first serve, but also an incredible 75% of her points were won on her second serve (15 out of 20).

Beatriz Haddad Maia – Statistics & current form

Current ranking in the world: 14
Position in the seedings: 14

Ahead of this year’s French Open, 27-year-old Brazilian Beatriz Haddad Maia has never made it past the second round at a Grand Slam tournament before. Now the lady from Sao Paulo has made history.

The world number 14 has become the first Brazilian in the Open Era to reach the semifinals at the French Open. Overall, she is even the first Brazilian to reach a Grand Slam semi-final since Maria Bueno (US Open 1968).

First two singles titles won on the WTA Tour

Now the South American wants to go one step further, for which she would have to repeat her already mentioned coup from last autumn. At the National Bank Open in Toronto, Beatriz Haddad Maia surprisingly beat the Polish world number one 2:1 in the third round.

At the end of the tournament, the Brazilian even reached the final of a WTA 1000 tournament for the first time in her career. However, the 27-year-old lost the Major final 1-2 to Simona Halep. Overall, Haddad Maia still has two singles titles to her name on the WTA Tour, which she won on grass at WTA 250 tournaments in the summer of 2022.

Won 21 of 31 singles matches in 2023

There really isn’t much to suggest that Iga Swiatek’s bet on Beatriz Haddad Maia to progress will work out, with the 27-year-old on 21 wins from 31 completed singles matches this year. Among the ten losses in the current clay-court season, there have been some lapses in Madrid against Mirra Andreeva (WTA 194) and in Rome against Anhelina Kalinina (WTA 47), which show that she still lacks the necessary consistency.

In addition, the South American’s return game is probably a bit too weak to really attack Iga Swiatek’s strong serve. In the quarter-final against Ons Jabeur, Haddad Maia won 45% of her return points, which is probably not enough for the level of the Pole.

Iga Swiatek – Beatriz Haddad Maia Direct comparison / H2H-balance

Head to head: 0:1

In the first and only meeting between the two women so far, Beatriz Haddad Maia surprisingly beat the favourite Iga Swiatek 2-1 in the third round of the National Bank Open 2022 in Toronto on hard court last autumn. The Brazilian now leads the direct comparison 1-0.

Iga Swiatek – Beatriz Haddad Maia Tip

When it comes to Iga Swiatek against Beatriz Haddad Maia, the prediction basically goes in the direction of the strong-playing Pole, who did not drop a set at Roland Garros and was as dominant as ever in her rush to the semi-finals. Nevertheless, the match she lost 2-1 to the Brazilian last autumn could well be in the back of the mind of the world number one, who, despite all her successes, has already suffered six defeats in 2023 – most recently in the quarter-finals of the Italian Open against Elena Rybakina.

In our eyes, the greatest value comes from betting that the Brazilian will win at least six matches. A bet that includes a dominant Swiatek win like something 2:0 (6:4 and 6:2) in addition to any surprising result.

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