Will Sonego cause a surprise Down Under?

A highly interesting pairing has already emerged in the second round of the 111th Men’s Singles at the Australian Open, when Hubert Hurkacz, the number ten seed, clashes with Lorenzo Sonego.

The Pole has lost three out of four singles matches against the unseeded Italian. Accordingly, the tip on Hubert Hurkacz against Lorenzo Sonego is interesting for the supposed underdog to progress.

Another factor in favour of the Italian is the fact that Hubert Hurkacz has had a very hard time in Grand Slam tournaments on hard court so far. While the Pole reached the fourth round at the French Open and even the semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships, the 25-year-old did not make it past the second round at either the US Open or the Australian Open. A record that also plays a role in the forecast for Hubert Hurkacz against Lorenzo Sonego.

While Lorenzo Sonego is by no means a heavyweight, he has only made it past the second round of the Australian Open once in four attempts, when he finished in the third round in Melbourne a year ago. Nevertheless, these indications suggest that there is plenty of potential for a surprise in the second round of the Australian Open 2023.

Those who are willing to take a risk can therefore risk the underdog bet in this interesting second-round match and bet on Lorenzo Sonego advancing. A very interesting option in this context is to fall back on a free bet for the betting, in order to get back the stake in case of loss.

Hubert Hurkacz – Statistics & current form

Current position in the world ranking: 11
Position in the seedings: 10

The 25-year-old Pole Hubert Hurkacz has really made up a lot of ground in the ATP world rankings, especially in the last two years, but without having won any major tournaments in a row.

The initial spark in the career of the 1.96-metre tall giant of the serve was undoubtedly the overall victory at the Miami Masters 2021, which was followed by only two more titles at small tournaments in Metz (September 2021) and Halle (June 2022). In total, Hurkacz stands at five singles titles on the ATP Tour.

A win percentage of just 33% at the Australian Open

The Pole, who finished the last two seasons ranked ninth (2021) and tenth (2022) in the ATP world rankings and is currently number eleven in the world, has not yet been fully convincing in Grand Slam tournaments either. The only exception was his run at the Wimbledon Championships, which took him to the semifinals in 2021.

Last summer, however, the 25-year-old, who has never made it past the second round at the Australian Open and US Open in his nine appearances, was eliminated in the first round at the tennis tournament in London. Down Under, Hurkacz even started with a meagre win percentage of 33%.

Scored on the first serve 90% of the time

At least in the first round, however, nothing else burned for the service giant in his smooth 3-0 victory over Pedro Martínez, although it is clear that Hubert Hurkacz completely controlled the match on his own serve. When his first serve came in, he scored in 46 out of 51 cases – a gigantic rate of 90%.

Accordingly, the 25-year-old is also favoured by the betting companies in the second round. In the run-up to the match between Hubert Hurkacz and Lorenzo Sonego, the betting odds are swinging in the direction of the Pole, who has so far only won one of three duels with the Italian on the ATP Tour.

Lorenzo Sonego – Statistics & Current Form

Current world ranking: 47
Position in the seedings: unseeded

The 27-year-old Italian Lorenzo Sonego first appeared in an ATP Tour tournament in 2014. In 2016, he qualified for a major tournament for the first time (Italian Open) and in 2018, the man from Turin made his first appearance in the main draw of a Grand Slam.

At the 2018 Australian Open, Lorenzo Sonego also promptly won his opening match against Robin Haase 3-1, one of five wins from nine completed singles matches to date at the Grand Slam Down Under.

A whole 51 unforced errors in opening match

The man from Piedmont, who reached the third round of the Australian Open a year ago, also managed to win his opening match this year. The 3-1 win over Nuno Borges also marked Lorenzo Sonego’s first singles victory of the 2023 calendar year, after the Turin native had previously lost his opening match at both preparatory tournaments in Adelaide.

Now, however, the 27-year-old clashes with the number ten seed and will have to improve drastically compared to the opening match. The Italian committed a staggering 51 unforced errors against his Portuguese opponent. A figure that would probably blow up in his face in the second round.

Won three of the four singles matches against Hurkacz

If the Turin native can reduce his error rate and bring his strong return game onto the court against Hubert Hurkacz, a surprise is absolutely within the realm of possibility. The 27-year-old has already won three out of four times against the serving giant from Poland, which makes Hubert Hurkacz’s bet on advancing against Lorenzo Sonego a solid one.

After all, the Italian has managed to bring even seasoned top 10 players to their knees four times in his career – including superstar Novak Djokovic on hard court in the 2020 season at the Vienna Open…

Hubert Hurkacz – Lorenzo Sonego Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 1:3

The two athletes have faced each other four times on the ATP Tour and Lorenzo Sonego prevailed over Hubert Hurkacz on three of the four occasions. Most recently, the two players met in the autumn on indoor hard court at the Moselle Open in France in the semifinals. The Italian won 2-0 and secured his third and last singles title on the ATP Tour in the final.

Hubert Hurkacz – Lorenzo Sonego Tip

With Hubert Hurkacz against Lorenzo Sonego, our prediction is definitely influenced by the one-sided “head to head” comparison between both athletes. However, not only the record but also the statistics of both players in the Grand Slam tournaments on hard court show that the Italian generally likes the hard court a little better. Accordingly, it is interesting to bet that the Pole will once again have to say goodbye to a player on the seedings list early in the tournament down under.

With a look at the quotes of the betting providers, a probability of 29% for the victory of the Italian already results in a positive expected value. If we now take the balance into account, however, it is more of a 50:50 situation with a minimal slight advantage for the Pole, which is why the bet makes absolute sense from a value point of view.